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Vikings vs. Rams Prediction, Picks & Odds for Tonight: Wild Card Weekend

Mike Spector

Last Updated: January 13, 2025 5:05 PM EST • 4 min 24 sec read.

Minnesota Vikings quarterback Sam Darnold throws a pass against the Green Bay Packers as we offer our Vikings vs. Rams prediction.
Minnesota Vikings quarterback Sam Darnold throws a pass against the Green Bay Packers. Photo by Jeffrey Becker via Imagn Images

It's time for the last contest of Wild Card Week, with the Minnesota Vikings and Los Angeles Rams squaring off at State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Ariz. (8 p.m. ET kickoff, ESPN/ABC).

Both teams enter the playoffs on the back of a regular-season loss. However, the Vikings' defeat in Detroit was immeasurably more meaningful, forcing them to play the in-form Sean McVay-led Rams tonight. 

Our Vikings vs. Rams prediction expects Minnesota, the favorites at our best NFL betting sites, to advance. The below predictions are part of our Vikings vs. Rams expert picks. 

Vikings vs. Rams updated betting info

The Vikings opened as 1-point favorites at BetMGM but have since moved to -2.5 in the lead-up to kickoff, most notably due to the venue changing from SoFi Stadium to State Farm Stadium. 

There has been no movement on the 47.5-point total. 

The public is backing the Vikings, as 71% of the bets and 67% of the money is on them to advance. T.J. Hockenson, who we cover in our Vikings vs. Rams parlay, is the most bet player prop at BetMGM.  

Vikings vs. Rams predictions

NFL picks based on the odds from our best NFL betting sites. Odds subject to change.

  • Against the spread pick: Vikings -2.5 () vs. Rams ⭐⭐
  • My best pick: Sam Darnold longest pass completion Over 37.5 yards () ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Vikings vs. Rams ATS prediction: Wild Card Weekend

Vikings to cover the spread: -2.5 ⭐⭐

Location change neutralizes this matchup

Earlier this week, we tabbed the Rams as one of our top NFL upset picks of the week, given that Los Angeles was just one of two home underdogs for Wild Card Weekend.

However, Los Angeles was better on the road (5-3) than at home (5-4) so the line only moved one point in Minnesota’s favor after the location change was announced. And while the one-point swing isn't enough on its own to flip to the other side, we don't know how the wildfires will impact the Rams' overall psyche, providing enough doubt to back Minnesota. 

Positive red zone regression for Sam Darnold

In more ways than one, Darnold turned in his worst performance of the season last week. He produced season-lows in completion percentage (43.9%), passing yards (166), and yards per attempt (4.0) in the loss to Detroit.

I expect positive regression, especially regarding his red zone production.

Over the last two games, Darnold has a QBR of 1 and completed 31% of his passes while being off-target on 43% of his red zone pass attempts.

However, over the first 15 games, Darnold led the league with a 75 QBR, 70% completion percentage, and 12% off-target percentage in the red zone.

The NFC North prepared the Vikings

The NFC North was the first division in NFL history to produce a 14-win team that did not win the division and added a second wild-card team with the 11-win Packers.

The division flexed its dominance over the rest of the league, going 33-11 SU and covering the spread in 30 of the 44 games against non-divisional opponents.

History also suggests Minnesota is in line to win. The Vikings had a nine-game winning streak snapped last week. Each of the four previous teams that had a winning streak of seven or more games end right before the playoffs won in the first round.

I am making this wager at BetMGM, as it is one of our only best sports betting sites charging the standard -110 juice (instead of -120 elsewhere) to back the favorites.

Best odds: -110 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 52.38%

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Vikings vs. Rams best pick

Our NEW NFL player prop odds tool can help you find the best odds on any market across legal sportsbooks in your area!

Sam Darnold longest pass completion Over 37.5 yards ⭐⭐⭐⭐

In line with a bet on the Vikings to cover, I was most interested in backing the Over 1.5 on Darnold’s passing touchdowns. But I pivoted from that wager once I saw the cheapest price to back the Over was -168 at FanDuel.

Instead, I am backing the Over on Darnold’s longest completion, given his success on deep throws. On throws of 20 or more yards downfield this season, Darnold has the most completions (34) comp, the highest completion percentage (56%), and is tied for the most passing touchdowns (nine).

Meanwhile, the Rams have allowed eight passing touchdowns on deep throws, tied for 26th in the NFL. This is a four-star play, as Darnold was especially efficient using play-action in these teams’ Week 8 matchup.

Darnold completed all eight play-action passes for 104 yards and a 13.0 yards per attempt average. That could be the key to Darnold going over this projected total for the fifth time in the last nine games.

FanDuel is the only one of our best sportsbooks with an O/U of 37.5, as all others are slightly higher at 38.5.

Best odds: -120 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 54.55%

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Vikings vs. Rams expert picks

Vikings vs. Rams odds

See all of this week's NFL odds and NFL scores.

Vikings vs. Rams live odds

Vikings vs. Rams opening odds:

  • Vikings: -2 (-110 via BetMGM)
  • Rams: +2 (-110 via BetMGM)

Vikings vs. Rams injuries

Vikings vs. Rams game info

  • When: Monday, Jan. 13
  • Kickoff: 8 p.m. ET
  • Where: State Farm Stadium (Glendale, Ariz.)
  • How to watch: ESPN/ABC/ESPN+
  • Weather: Indoors
  • Favorite: Vikings -2.5 (-110 via BetMGM)

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Written By:
Mike Spector
Mike started in the sports writing industry in July 2019, and gained a lot of followers in his first year after finishing with the No. 2 overall record in an annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an Over/Under and moneyline perspective. Mike is an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, tennis, and all college sports. In his opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and he's especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. Mike's a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." When making wagers, Mike always scours the best odds at all of the major sports betting sites, where he mostly sifts through DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and bet365. He's tried several others and is of the firm belief that bettors should not just stick to one sportsbook, as there is always likely better value to be had with the same wager. In addition, while Mike received his undergraduate degree from Villanova University, he has no issue betting against the Wildcats when it comes to college basketball wagering, and suggests other bettors should always put their “head” before their “hearts.”