Justin Jefferson TNF Player Prop Bets: Touchdown Picks & Odds
Last Updated: October 24, 2024 1:22 PM EDT • 4 min 7 sec read.
While the Minnesota Vikings might have changed quarterbacks in the offseason, their superstar receiver has remained an offensive threat. This week’s Justin Jefferson TNF player props based on our best Thursday Night Football odds dig into his newfound connection with Sam Darnold this season.
Jefferson leads his team in every major receiving category, including targets (51), receptions (33), receiving yards (531), and receiving touchdowns (5). Whether Jefferson will hit his receiving props can quickly become a question of by how much he'll exceed them.
As we continue our Week 8 NFL predictions and to accompany our Vikings vs. Rams prediction, I am taking the Over on a couple of his props this week.
Justin Jefferson prop predictions for Thursday Night Football
- Justin Jefferson touchdown pick: to score a first half touchdown () ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Justin Jefferson longest reception Over 26.5 yards () ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Justin Jefferson Over 83.5 receiving yards () ⭐⭐⭐⭐
NFL odds as of Thursday and subject to change. Track the NFL scores for the latest line movement and matchup info.
Justin Jefferson touchdown pick vs. Rams
Justin Jefferson to score a first-half touchdown (+205) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Jefferson has scored a touchdown in five of his six games this season. Four of those have been scored in the first half.
The Vikings star wideout has 22 receptions in the first 30 minutes of the game so far this season. That number drops to 11 during the second half. This is mainly a result of Minnesota’s ability to build a lead early leading the league with 9.7 points per game in the first quarter.
He is facing a Rams defense this week that has not allowed a wide receiver to score a touchdown over their last two matchups. However, in two games this year, they have allowed a wideout to cross the goal line before the half. They've also been susceptible to tight ends, but we get to that in our Anytime Touchdown Scorer predictions.
I also like his first touchdown number here (+550), but I am nervous that Aaron Jones may be the one to take that from him. So, I am willing to take the price reduction to make sure this cashes. Our Sam Darnold TNF player props see him slinging a couple of TD passes. Why can't one come in the first half to JJets?
Best odds: +205 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 32.79
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Justin Jefferson player props
NFL picks made Thursday; odds subject to change. Our NEW NFL player prop odds tool can help you find the best odds on any market across legal sportsbooks in your area!
Justin Jefferson longest reception Over 26.5 yards (-118) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Last week was the first week in which Jefferson failed to catch a pass of at least 27 yards as the Detroit Lions managed to keep him two yards short of that mark.
The All-Pro wideout has eclipsed this total in 39 of his 66 career starts. He will be taking on a Rams defense that has allowed at least one completion of 27 or more yards in five of their six games this season.
Jefferson is averaging 16.1 yards per reception as well as 10.4 yards per target this season giving him plenty of opportunity to clear this mark.
Los Angeles is giving up the sixth-fewest completions per game (18.3) in the league this year, but are allowing the most yards per completion (11.6).
Best odds: -118 via Caesars | Implied probability: 54.13%
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Justin Jefferson Over 83.5 receiving yards (-115) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Jefferson has exceeded this prop total in three of his six games this season. He has also come within three yards of cashing this bet in two more games. On top of that, the Vikings wideout went for 116 receiving yards in his one career start against the Rams.
He is the main pass catcher for Minnesota, harvesting a third of Sam Darnold’s 165 pass attempts and 110 completions this season.
The Rams defense is allowing an average of 211.8 passing yards per game. At home, that number increases to 226.7 yards per game, the tenth-worst average in the league.
Los Angeles has not given up at least 84 receiving yards to a single wideout in their last three matchups. However, the Rams started the year by allowing a receiver to top this mark in their first three games.
Best odds: -115 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 53.49%
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Vikings vs. Rams odds
Thursday Night Football game info
- Matchup: Vikings vs. Rams
- Kickoff: 8:15 p.m. ET
- Where: SoFi Stadium (Inglewood, Calif.)
- How to watch: Prime Video
- Weather: Indoors
- Favorite: Vikings -2.5 (-120 via FanDuel)
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