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Justin Herbert NFL Player Prop Odds & Picks for Thursday Night Football: Week 16 vs. Broncos

Gary Pearson

Last Updated: December 19, 2024 2:21 PM EST • 3 min 48 sec read.

Los Angeles Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert throws a pass as we make our Justin Herbert player prop picks ahead of TNF against the Denver Broncos.
Los Angeles Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert (10) throws a pass. Photo by Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images.

The Denver Broncos will secure a playoff berth with a victory over the Los Angeles Chargers on Thursday Night Football at SoFi Stadium (8:15 p.m. ET, Prime Video). 

With the best against-the-spread (ATS) record (11-3), the Broncos enter the contest as 3-point underdogs via the Thursday Night Football odds.

The Chargers, meanwhile, are 9-4-1 ATS and beat the Broncos 23-16 in their first meeting. They would leapfrog Denver into second spot in the AFC West with a victory thanks to owning the head-to-head tiebreaker. 

Our Justin Herbert player prop odds expect the banged-up Chargers' quarterback to struggle in various facets against a full-throttle Broncos defense.

The below picks are part of our TNF coverage, including the Broncos vs. Chargers prediction. 

Justin Herbert TNF player prop picks

NFL odds as of Thursday and subject to change. Track the NFL scores for the latest line movement and matchup info.

  • Justin Herbert prop pick: Under 11.5 rushing yards () ⭐⭐⭐⭐
  • Justin Herbert prop pick: Under 231.5 passing yards () ⭐⭐⭐⭐
  • Justin Herbert prop pick: Longest rush Under 7.5 yards (-120 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐

Justin Herbert player prop odds

Justin Herbert prop picks

NFL picks made Thursday; odds subject to change. Our NEW NFL player prop odds tool can help you find the best odds on any market across legal sportsbooks in your area!

Justin Herbert Under 11.5 rushing yards ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Herbert has taken his licks this season and hasn't come out the other side unscathed. He overcame an ankle injury and leg contusion to suit up in Week 15. While his ankle injury didn't worsen much against Tampa Bay last week, you could see how much the issue impacted his mobility and confidence.

The Chargers are coming off a short week, which won't help Herbert's cause. He was limited at practice earlier in the week, an expected outcome given the lack of recovery time. His knee also swelled up after the contest. 

Herbert hit the Under on this prop twice in the last three games, while his Over (12 yards) in that stretch only just cleared the 11.5-yard threshold.

He's hit the Under in eight of 14 games and, as he's not at 100%, should be pre-conditioned to stay in the pocket. A winning $10 bet will profit $8.33.

Best odds: -120 via Caesars | Implied probability: 54.55%

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Justin Herbert prop pick: Under 231.5 passing yards ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Herbert has hit this Under in four straight and five of the last six. He's struggling to get production from his receivers, with rookie Ladd McConkey the only exception. Quentin Johnston, the Chargers’ top deep threat, didn't participate on Tuesday due to an ankle injury but should play.

Herbert threw for at least 237 yards in four straight contests from Week 6 to Week 9. Besides that four-game explosion, Herbert hit the Under in nine of 10 games. 

J.K. Dobbins is still out of the lineup, but that won't prevent Jim Harbaugh and Co. from placing a heavy impetus on the run game, especially considering Herbert's various ailments.

And rest assured, Denver will bring the house as much as possible. Tampa Bay did last week, blitzing Herbert on 63% of his drop-backs. Well, the Broncos have the most sacks (49) and blitz the fifth-most of any team. Talk about adding insult to injury.

A winning $10 bet will profit $8.70. 

Best odds: -115 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 53.49%

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Justin Herbert longest run Under 7.5 yards ⭐⭐⭐

Herbert has averaged 1.4 yards per run in the last three games. He re-injured his ankle in the third quarter against the Chiefs in Week 14 and didn't attempt a run versus Tampa Bay last week.

Even if his experiment with the new ankle brace pays off, I can't see him venturing too far from the pocket, given what's at stake for his team in the long run. Herbert didn't run for more than seven yards in seven games this season, adding fuel to this longest run Under fire. A winning $10 bet will profit $8.33.

It's a three-star play because it's closely tied to the Under 11.5 rushing yards play. If Herbert hits the Over on this prop, he'll likely hit the Over on the total rushing yards, too. 

Best odds: -120 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 54.55%

Thursday Night Football picks

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Written By:
Gary Pearson
Gary Pearson has written professionally since 2010, focusing on sports betting since 2014. Before entering the sports betting space, he contributed to the Canadian Press, FanSided, the Hockey Writers, the Calgary Herald, and other publications. His work has also been featured in Sports Illustrated and Bleacher Report. Gary, who consumes sports like a blue whale devours plankton, has a penchant for writing predictions and analyses across several sports, including hockey, soccer, football, tennis, and more. He bets regularly, preferring single-game picks, props, and live betting. While there isn't a sport he has yet to dabble in, Gary prefers betting on soccer, hockey, and football. He studied at various post-secondary institutions, including the University of Calgary, SAIT Polytechnic, and Griffith University, located in Brisbane, Australia. Gary has a marketing degree and completed his bachelor's degree in journalism at Griffith University. He feels strongly that life experience is as essential as post-secondary education, helping formulate more accurate predictions and analyses. Gary believes that competing at a high level of amateur sports during his formative years helped him better understand an athlete's psyche and the nuances and complexities of a team's dynamic, both on and off the playing surface. He feels that knowledge is immeasurably important when offering his analytical expertise. He has lived on five continents and currently resides in Canada.