Skip to main content

Broncos vs. Chargers Prediction, TNF Picks & Odds for Tonight's Thursday Night Football

Mike Spector

Last Updated: December 19, 2024 5:06 PM EST • 4 min 44 sec read.

Outside of the playoffs and Super Bowl, you can't get much more of a meaningful contest than tonight's Denver Broncos vs. Los Angeles Chargers clash at SoFi Stadium (8:15 p.m. ET, Prime Video).

The NFL playoff odds are a key talking point as the Broncos will clinch a postseason berth with a victory, while the Chargers will, thanks to owning the head-to-head tiebreaker, leapfrog their division rivals in the AFC West if they prevail.

Denver, entering the contest as 2.5-point underdogs via the Thursday Night Football odds, has the league's best against-the-spread record (11-3) but lost to Los Angeles in Week 6. 

As we discuss in our Justin Herbert NFL player prop odds, the Chargers quarterback has taken more than his fair share of licks. Despite his ailing ankle, our Broncos vs. Chargers TNF prediction expects Los Angeles to cover as home favorites.

Broncos vs. Chargers updated betting info 

In our Broncos vs. Chargers early picks, the Chargers were 3-point favorites, which is where they opened. They've since moved to 2.5-point favorites in the lead-up to kickoff. 

Most of the money is on the Over, while the public, at least in terms of money, is split down the middle regarding the winner.

The Broncos quarterback, receiving the second-shortest Offensive Rookie of the Year odds, is one of the most bet-on players for the game, which we cover in our Nix NFL player prop odds.

Best Broncos vs. Chargers picks

NFL picks based on the odds from our best NFL betting sites. Odds subject to change.

  • Against the spread pick: Chargers -2.5 () vs. Broncos ⭐⭐
  • My best pick: Bo Nix Under 0.5 interceptions () ⭐⭐⭐

Broncos vs. Chargers against the spread prediction: Thursday Night Football

Chargers to cover the spread: -2.5 (-115) ⭐⭐

Best odds: -115 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 53.49%

Bet $5, Get $150 + $1K Deposit Bonus

Terms and conditions apply.

Each product featured on our website has been meticulously researched and selected by our team of experts. If you sign up through our links, we may get a commission. 21+. Gambling can be addictive, please play responsibly

Denver’s struggles against winning teams

Denver may be 9-5 and in a great position to earn a playoff spot in the AFC entering this week, but if it is to make any postseason noise, it will need to start playing better against elite competition.

Against teams under .500, Nix is 8-0, leading the team to an average of 30.5 points per game while posting a 16-5 TD-INT ratio. However, Nix is 1-5 with a 4-6 TD-INT ratio against winning teams, and the Broncos average just 15.3 points in those contests.

That includes the first game against the Chargers when he completed just 57.6% of his passes, tied for his second-lowest in the last 10 games.

Buy low on the Chargers defense

Much is being made of the Broncos' defense, as they entered last week with the most sacks in the league (47) and ranked in the top two in yards per play allowed (4.9) and points per game allowed (18.0).

It would be easy to dismiss L.A.’s chances of defensive success in this matchup after it allowed season-highs in points (40) and yards (505).

But this is also a Chargers defense that allowed 17 points or fewer nine times through the first 12 games. That was when they had the league’s best scoring defense (15.7 points per game) and the best point differential (+72) among all AFC West teams.

Buying a Harbaugh bounce-back

Jim Harbaugh’s NFL teams know how to bounce back from a loss. His teams are 15-9 SU and 13-9-2 ATS after a loss, including a 3-2 SU and 3-1-1 ATS record in such games this year.

Denver has covered the spread in five straight games, and Bo Nix is the most profitable ATS quarterback this season with 11 covers in 14 games, but I expect that run to end on Thursday.

As tempting as it is to back Los Angeles laying three points at +105 odds at Caesars, I do not mind paying up slightly at DraftKings, the only of our best sportsbooks offering a spread lower than the key number of three.

Our Andrew Brennan is banking on the Chargers run game with his Broncos vs. Chargers TNF prop bets.

Thursday Night Football picks

Broncos vs. Chargers best pick

Our NEW NFL player prop odds tool can help you find the best odds on any market across legal sportsbooks in your area!

Bo Nix Under 0.5 interceptions (+112) ⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: +112 via Caesars | Implied probability: 47.17%

Bet $1, Get 10x 100% Profit Boosts

New users only. Must use promo code. Min. $10 deposit. Max. additional winnings $2.5K per token. Tokens expire in 14 days. Void where prohibited. .

Each product featured on our website has been meticulously researched and selected by our team of experts. If you sign up through our links, we may get a commission. 21+. Gambling can be addictive, please play responsibly

It would be easy to get caught up in Bo Nix coming off a career-high three-interception game and suggest that his struggles will continue.

But Nix, receiving the second-shortest Offensive Rookie of the Year odds, had just four interceptions in the 11 games beforehand, so getting plus-money odds that he will finish another game without an interception is highly appealing.

Nix has averaged one interception in the six games he has played against teams with a winning record, but he has gone without an interception in two of the previous four such games.

This is a three-star play, as the Chargers’ inability to stop the run should lead to a more conservative game plan from Denver. Los Angeles had allowed 133.2 rushing yards per game from Weeks 10-14 before allowing 223 rushing yards to Tampa Bay last week. 

The lowest odds for Nix to finish without an interception are +105, but I am making this play at Caesars, where a $10 winning wager would return a profit of $11.20.

Broncos vs. Chargers odds movement

There's been some minor yet notable movement in the spread, with some of our best sportsbooks shifting from -3 in favor of the Broncos to below the key number and to -2.5 as of Wednesday afternoon.

Broncos vs. Chargers odds

See all of this week's NFL odds and NFL scores.

Broncos vs. Chargers injuries

Thursday Night Football game info

  • Kickoff: 8:15 p.m. ET
  • Where: SoFi Stadium (Inglewood, Calif.)
  • How to watch: Prime Video
  • Weather: Indoors
  • Favorite: Chargers -3 (-105 via BetMGM)

NFL betting odds pages

Here are our best NFL betting sites:

(21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER)
* Bonuses not applicable in Ontario.

Not intended for use in MA.
Each betting site featured on SBR has been meticulously researched and selected by our team of experts. If you sign up through our links, we may get a commission.

Related pages

Written By:
Mike Spector
Mike started in the sports writing industry in July 2019, and gained a lot of followers in his first year after finishing with the No. 2 overall record in an annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an Over/Under and moneyline perspective. Mike is an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, tennis, and all college sports. In his opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and he's especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. Mike's a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." When making wagers, Mike always scours the best odds at all of the major sports betting sites, where he mostly sifts through DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and bet365. He's tried several others and is of the firm belief that bettors should not just stick to one sportsbook, as there is always likely better value to be had with the same wager. In addition, while Mike received his undergraduate degree from Villanova University, he has no issue betting against the Wildcats when it comes to college basketball wagering, and suggests other bettors should always put their “head” before their “hearts.”