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Sean O'Malley vs. Merab Dvalishvili Prediction, Expert Picks & Odds: UFC 306

Andrew Brennan

Last Updated: September 14, 2024 2:29 PM EDT • 2 min 45 sec read.

Merab Dvalishvili reacts after defeating Jose Aldo at UFC 278.
Merab Dvalishvili reacts after defeating Jose Aldo at UFC 278. Photo by Jeffrey Swinger via Imagn Images.

Saturday night's UFC 306 will be headlined by the highly anticipated bantamweight title bout between Merab Dvalishvili and the reigning champ, Sean O'Malley, in a battle of styles.

Our O'Malley vs. Dvalishvili prediction takes a firm stance in the striker vs. wrestler debate, and we're siding with the relentless Georgian cardio machine.

Can Dvalishvili repeatedly close the distance across five rounds and avoid getting caught too many times by O'Malley? Or will the champ use his massive height and reach advantage to put together his patented combinations in a striking clinic?

It all goes down at the Sphere in Las Vegas, with the main card getting underway at 10 p.m. ET. Be sure to check out our full look at the UFC 306 odds for the rest of the fights on this stacked card.

Sean O'Malley vs. Merab Dvalishvili prediction & best bet

(Odds via our best UFC betting sites; UFC picks confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale)

  • Fight prediction: Dvalishvili moneyline () ⭐⭐⭐
  • My best bet: Dvalishvili to win by decision () ⭐⭐⭐

Sean O'Malley vs. Merab Dvalishvili fight analysis

This is as classic of a stylistic battle as it gets.

O'Malley, one of the most talented strikers in the UFC, lands 7.63 significant strikes per minute, absorbing only 3.52 in that time. He's long and rangy, and he uses his reach effectively. 

The American is doing his best to try to become the next Conor McGregor, and a win over Dvalishvili would go a long way in that quest.

However, O'Malley is up against perhaps the most relentless fighter in the promotion on Saturday night. Dvalishvili averages nearly 6.5 takedowns per 15 minutes in the UFC, and he also manages 4.5 significant strikes per minute of his own.

Additionally, Dvalishvili absorbs even fewer strikes per minute than O'Malley, which will help him in this fight.

The Georgian has perhaps the best cardio in the UFC, and I think he'll drag O'Malley into the deepest of waters on Saturday night and be too much for the reigning champion to handle.

And new.

Prediction: Dvalishvili moneyline () | Implied probability: 47.62%

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Sean O'Malley vs. Merab Dvalishvili best bet

Of Dvalishvili's professional MMA 17 wins, 13 have been by decision. I don't think he has the physical tools or skill set to finish O'Malley, but he possesses the perfect combination of wrestling and cardio to dethrone the champion on points.

The moral of the story when it comes to this fight is that I think both these men will have a hard time finishing the other. Therefore, I naturally also like the fight to go the distance (-110 via Betway).

Additionally, thanks to his big advantage when it comes to his cardio, I'd bet on Dvalishvili to land more significant strikes in Round 5 (-110 via Betway).

But the best bet of all is, of course, Dvalishvili to win by decision. Not only do I think it's the most likely result, but we're also getting great +175 odds for it to happen.

A winning $10 wager would result in $17.50 in profit.

Best bet: Dvalishvili to win by decision () | Implied probability: 36.36%

Sean O'Malley vs. Merab Dvalishvili odds

Odds via Betway as of Saturday.

O'MalleyMethod of victoryDvalishvili
-138Win outright+110
+130Win by KO/TKO/DQ+700
+1800Win by submission+2000
+400Win by decision+175
+5000Draw+5000

Sean O'Malley vs. Merab Dvalishvili tale of the tape

O'MalleyDvalishvili
29Age33
5-11Height5-6
135Weight134
72 inchesReach68 inches
18-1Record17-4

Sean O'Malley vs. Merab Dvalishvili fight info

  • When: Saturday, Sept. 14 at 10 p.m. ET (main card)
  • Where: Sphere, Las Vegas
  • How to watch: PPV
  • Favorite: O'Malley ()

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Written By:
Andrew Brennan
Andrew Brennan is a publishing editor for Sportsbook Review. He also heads the website’s MLB coverage, from the various futures markets to daily picks. Andrew believes a math-based approach is the best way to enjoy long-term success in sports betting, and he’s spent the better part of the last year fine-tuning his own process for MLB, NBA, and NFL picks. Andrew uses eight different sportsbooks to find the best odds available and various projection models to gather as much information as he can. His most used sportsbooks are bet365, FanDuel, and theScore Bet. When it comes to daily projection models, he regularly references NumberFire across all sports, as it’s one of the best free tools available. In terms of which daily markets Andrew attacks, he almost exclusively bets on pitcher strikeouts for baseball. When the winter rolls around, you’ll see him providing more variety when it comes to the NBA (points, assists, rebounds) and NFL (almost any offensive-based player prop). He used these tools to go +150 units in 2023. Andrew is also a passionate fantasy sports player. He’s played fantasy football, fantasy Premier League, and fantasy baseball for the last decade. He graduated from Durham College with his diploma in journalism after earning his degree in law from Carleton University. He’s worked in sports media since early 2017, first contributing at FanSided before moving to theScore. He joined SBR in 2022.