UFC Predictions & Odds: Top Picks for UFC 301 - Pantoja vs. Erceg

The UFC heads to Rio de Janeiro this Saturday for a PPV event headlined by a flyweight title clash between Alexandre Pantoja vs. Steve Erceg, as we offer our best predictions for UFC 301 based on the odds from our best UFC betting sites.

On Saturday, native Brazilian fighter Alexandre Pantoja returns home for his second title defense after December's victory over Brandon Royval at UFC 296. Five months later, he'll face Steve Erceg in the main event of Saturday's UFC 301, with the main card set for 10 p.m ET from Farmasi Arena in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.

The 34-year-old Pantoja outslugged Brandon Moreno five months prior to December's win to initially claim the crown, and he enters Saturday’s headliner with five straight wins and a UFC record of 11-3 to his name. As for the challenger, Erceg vies for UFC gold in just his fourth promotional bout, having outpointed David Dvorak and Alessandro Costa before punching his ticket to Rio with a KO of Matt Schnell just two months ago.

In the bantamweight co-headliner, Rio’s finest ends his 20-month retirement from MMA, as former featherweight king Jose Aldo meets a streaking Jonathan Martinez, who has won six straight contests.

Here are our UFC predictions and UFC picks for Saturday's UFC 301 (odds via our best sports betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

UFC 301 predictions & picks

• Pichel ML vs. Bonfim () ⭐⭐⭐
• Pantoja vs. Erceg Under 3.5 Rounds () ⭐⭐⭐
• Pereira by KO/TKO vs. Potieria () ⭐⭐⭐
• Brener vs. Orolbai Doesn’t Go the Distance () ⭐⭐⭐

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Top UFC picks for UFC 301

Pichel ML vs. Bonfim ⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: 

He may be on the wrong side of 40, but Vinc Pichel remains durable, gritty, and the kind of physical fighter that can upset a heavy favorite in Ismael Bonfim.

In his last outing, Bonfim was handily taken down and outgrappled by Benoit Saint-Denis. With Pichel averaging three takedowns per 15 minutes and scoring at least one in five of seven UFC wins, I expect he’ll treat Bonfim to the same fate.

The 41-year-old is comfortable enough on his feet to set up his wrestling, and once Bonfim is on his back, look for Pichel to smother him, pepper him with ground-and-pound, and wear him out to get back in the win column.

With Pichel being the heavy underdog, every major betting line offers a compelling payout, and DraftKings leads the pack at a solid +410.

Pantoja vs. Erceg Under 3.5 Rounds ⭐⭐⭐

Best odds:

Most flyweights have cardio for days and are accustomed to going the distance, but I suspect Saturday’s headliners won’t need the full 25 to settle their matchup.

No matter where the action goes, Pantoja and Erceg match up nicely, as both boast solid grappling and know how to sling leather. Indeed, the challenger’s crisp boxing pairs well with Pantoja’s forward pressure, and with 16 tapouts between them, any grappling exchanges should lead to scrambles galore and submission attempts in transition.

Furthermore, both Pantoja and Erceg are prolific finishers for their weight class, having accrued a combined 26 stoppage victories. Whether the crown remains with the homegrown favorite or heads back to Australia with Erceg, these two flyweights should be in for a short enough night of work - and you’ll find the Under on 3.5 frames at a tempting +124 with DraftKings.

Pereira by KO/TKO vs. Potieria ⭐⭐⭐

Best odds:

Michel Pereira’s third UFC walk as a middleweight won’t come with a step up in competition, as he gets a dance partner who’s dropped three of his last five to middling foes in Ihor Potieria.

As a result, the money line on a straight Pereira W leaves much to be desired, but his method of victory is worth your attention. The Brazilian has dispatched 11 foes by knockout or TKO, while Potieria has folded to strikes in all three of his UFC losses and four of five career defeats.

Despite these numbers, Potieria remains a willing striker, and Pereira - ever the showman - should be the latest to make him pay for it in the most brutal fashion. The lines on a 12th career KO/TKO for Pereira range from -120 to -150, with FanDuel earning the nod on the lower range.

Brener vs. Orolbai Doesn’t Go the Distance ⭐⭐⭐

Best odds:

Much like UFC 301’s closer, this lightweight bout should give the judges a break, no matter where it’s contested.

Elves Brener and Myktybek Orolbai are capable of ending things with both their mitts and their grappling. The former has earned his last two wins by KO/TKO and 11 as a pro by tapout, while the latter boasts six knockouts and five submissions in 12 career victories.

Brener might own 14 of the pair’s combined 25 stoppages, but Orolbai should be the one to press the action, at least based on his dominant win over Uros Medic from late 2023. All this to say, this compelling lightweight clash can unfold in myriad ways, and no matter who gains top control on the mat or pushes the pace on the feet, Brener and Orolbai won’t need 15 minutes to determine the better man.

UFC best bets made Saturday at 12:05 a.m. ET

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