UFC Best Bets Today: Top Picks, Predictions for UFC Fight Night: Aspinall vs. Tybura

Englishman Tom Aspinall takes on Marcin Tybura in a heavyweight battle headling UFC Fight Night: London as we look at our UFC best bets based on the odds from our best sports betting apps.

Aspinall’s runaway freight train toward UFC gold smashed into a roadblock last July when he suffered a debilitating knee injury just 15 seconds into a bout against Curtis Blaydes. Prior to this setback, the now-30-year-old Brit seemed destined for a title shot, racking up eight straight victories, including stoppages of Andrei Arlovski, Serghei Spivak, and Alexander Volkov.

Tybura, for his part, has authored a complete career turnaround, transforming a middling UFC campaign into an impressive one with seven victories in his last eight trips to the Octagon. During this stretch, he’s carved out notable wins over Ben Rothwell, Blagoy Ivanov, Alexandr Romanov, Walt Harris, and the aforementioned Spivak.

Also on Saturday's card: A flyweight bout pitting Molly McCann against Julija Stoliarenko, and a grapplers delight between Paul Craig and Andre Muniz.

With the table set, here are our UFC best bets for UFC Fight Night: Aspinall vs. Tybura (odds via our best sports betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

UFC London best bets

• Winning method: Tom Aspinall to win via KO/TKO (-150 via ⭐⭐⭐⭐
• Moneyline: Molly McCann (-210 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
• Moneyline: Joel Alvarez (-195 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

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UFC Fight Night: Aspinall vs. Tybura schedule and odds

Odds via

• Jafel Filho (-110) vs. Daniel Barez (-110)
• Shauna Bannon (+130) vs. Bruna Brasil (-150)
• Chris Duncan (-150) vs. Yanal Ashmouz (+130)
• Ketlen Vieira (-145) vs. Pannie Kianzad (+125)
• Makhmud Muradov (-365) vs. Bryan Barberena (+300)
• Michael Parkin (+135) vs. Jamal Pogues (-155)
• Marc Diakiese (+170) vs. Joel Alvarez (-200)
• Danny Roberts (-130) vs. Jonny Parsons (+110)
• Davey Grant (+120) vs. Daniel Marcos (-140)
• Lerone Murphy (-140) vs. Josh Culibao (+120)
• Jai Herbert (+145) vs. Fares Ziam (-170)
• Paul Craig (+190) vs. Andre Muniz (-225)
• Nathaniel Wood (-210) vs. Andre Fili (+180)
• Molly McCann (-200) vs. Julija Storliarenko (+170)
• Tom Aspinall (-475) vs. Marcin Tybura (+380)

UFC top picks for Aspinall vs. Tybura

Winning method: Tom Aspinall to win via KO/TKO (-150 FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Aspinall is in a tier above Tybura. The powerful Englishman is the more accurate striker (65% to Tybura’s 48%), lands at a higher volume (7.41 significant strikes per minute to Tybura’s 3.55), and is the superior wrestler (landing four takedowns per 15-minute bout to Tybura’s 1.39). He also has better takedown defense, while absorbing less punishment.

There isn’t much value in backing Aspinall to win straight up (around -500 at most of our best sportsbooks), but there’s definitely some value in backing him to triumph violently. Aspinall has never seen the judge’s scorecards, and his blistering power has created nine KO/TKO’s in 12 career victories. When you couple this with Tybura’s tendency to crumble via strikes (four of his seven losses are of the KO/TKO variety), you’re looking at a recipe for a vicious finish.

Moneyline: Molly McCann (-210 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Stoliarenko has struggled with the scale in the past, so her cut to flyweight is truly puzzling. She’s also 1-4 in her UFC career, and this feels like a bit of a showcase fight for McCann who will look to unleash a dazzling performance in front of a hometown crowd.

An effective brawler who doesn’t shy away from a bit of a firefight, “Meatball” has heavier hands, throws/lands at a higher pace, and is the more accurate striker. Stoliarenko is a slick submission artist but doesn’t have the requisite wrestling to consistently drag McCann to the mat. Although you might find some value in backing a finish considering McCann’s six career KO/TKO’s, I think Stoliarenko will have enough juice to last at least 15 minutes.

Moneyline: Joel Alvarez (-195 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Marc Diakiese just isn’t the same dynamic fighter who burst onto the scene with three straight victories inside the Octagon. Sure, he has the ability to explode with scintillating strikes and land devastating shots, but he’s more or less reverted into a wrestler of late. On the surface, this could be a good thing considering Alvarez has stuffed zero (0) takedown attempts during his UFC tenure, but this might actually be by design (at least sometimes).

Alvarez is a venomous grappler who shows an innate ability to snatch a limb or neck. The 30-year-old Spaniard has finished 16 of his 19 career victories via submission, including a pair of tap-outs inside the UFC’s eight-sided cage. I expect “El Fenomeno” to outclass Diakiese on the floor over 15 minutes en route to either a unanimous decision victory or a mid-to-late round submission.

UFC best bets made 07/21/2023 at 6:30 p.m. ET.

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• PointsBet Promo Code: Earn | Read our PointsBet Review
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