Machibet777 APPMan City vs. Real Madrid Prediction, Expert Pick & Odds: Champions League Knockout Phase Playoffs

We offer our Man City vs. Real Madrid prediction and expert picks. — Pictured: Manchester City forward Erling Haaland chases down a ball. Photo by Kyle Robertson via Imagn Images

Mid-February is far too early for a Champions League knockout clash featuring Manchester City and Real Madrid, but here we are.

The Goliaths of European football and Champions League odds contenders more closely resembled ailing Davids in the initial stage of the competition, creating this mouthwatering knockout phase playoff aggregate with a spot in the Round of 16 on the line.

The Cityzens host Tuesday's first leg at the Etihad Stadium (1 p.m. ET, DAZN/Paramount+), and our Man City vs. Real Madrid prediction and expert pick expect Pep Guardiola's side to take advantage of Real Madrid's decimated defense.

Man City vs. Real Madrid predictions

Champions League picks are based on the odds at our best soccer betting sites. Pick confidence is based on a 1-to-5-star scale.

Man City vs. Real Madrid moneyline pick: Man City (+110 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐
Man City vs. Real Madrid best pick: Erling Haaland Over 1.5 shots on target (-110 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Who will win Man City vs. Real Madrid?

Man City win ⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: | Implied win probability: 47.62%

The football gods are being way too kind to Man City, who frankly don't deserve it. City have endured their worst season since Guardiola took the reins nine years ago. Picking City to win is not based on form, as they stumbled through the first phase of play, taking four from 15 points in the final five matches.

That abhorrent patch included a 4-1 loss to Sporting Lisbon, a 2-0 setback to Juventus, and a 4-2 defeat to PSG. However, those three matches occurred on enemy terrain. They won three of four at home, with a 3-3 tie against Feyenoord the lone howler.

Not only is City a different team at the Etihad, but they're facing a Real Madrid side decimated by defensive injuries. Carlos Ancelotti must conjure a starting 11 without five first-team defenders.

Dani Carvajal, Eder Militao, David Alaba, Antonio Rudiger, and Lucas Vazquez are unavailable. Even a team with Real Madrid's coal mine-like depth shouldn't be able to overcome such a catastrophic personnel crisis. 

While the Galacticos have more than enough offensive power to trouble City, I can't see them overcoming the hostile environment with a second-string defense. A winning $10 bet will profit $11.

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Best Man City vs. Real Madrid pick

Erling Haaland Over 1.5 shots on target ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: -110 via FanDuel | Implied win probability: 52.38%

With Madrid's defensive issues and City's recent propensity to concede goals, I expect a high-scoring affair. I scoured our best sports betting sites for an appealing Over pick but wasn't satisfied with the risk-reward analysis.

So, I turned my attention to the giant Norwegian.

Haaland hasn't scored against Real Madrid in four matches, his worst run against any opponent in the Champions League. I have a feeling he'll end that streak tomorrow, but the +110 odds were a bit short for my liking.

Instead, I'm banking on the more probable outcome of firing at least two shots on target.

Haaland leads the Champions League with 17 shots and sits atop the Premier League with 53. That's an average of 2.13 per Champions League outing and 2.21 per Premier League contest. Usually, I'd be hesitant to make this pick against one of the world's best defenses.

But this Madrid defense has more patchwork than the favorite pair of jeans I refuse to discard, and Haaland should be salivating at the prospect. A winning $10 bet will profit $9.09.

Man City vs. Real Madrid odds

See the latest Champions League odds on all of today's other matchups.

When is Man. City vs. Real Madrid?

When: Tuesday, Feb. 11
Time: 3 p.m. ET
Location: Etihad Stadium (Manchester, England)
How to watch: DAZN, Paramount+
Weather: 39 degrees, 7 mph to 11 mph, 30% chance of precipitation
Favorite: Man City (+110 via FanDuel)

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Written By:
Gary Pearson

Gary Pearson has written professionally since 2010, focusing on sports betting since 2014. Before entering the sports betting space, he contributed to the Canadian Press, FanSided, the Hockey Writers, the Calgary Herald, and other publications. His work has also been featured in Sports Illustrated and Bleacher Report. Gary, who consumes sports like a blue whale devours plankton, has a penchant for writing predictions and analyses across several sports, including hockey, soccer, football, tennis, and more. He bets regularly, preferring single-game picks, props, and live betting. While there isn't a sport he has yet to dabble in, Gary prefers betting on soccer, hockey, and football. He studied at various post-secondary institutions, including the University of Calgary, SAIT Polytechnic, and Griffith University, located in Brisbane, Australia. Gary has a marketing degree and completed his bachelor's degree in journalism at Griffith University. He feels strongly that life experience is as essential as post-secondary education, helping formulate more accurate predictions and analyses. Gary believes that competing at a high level of amateur sports during his formative years helped him better understand an athlete's psyche and the nuances and complexities of a team's dynamic, both on and off the playing surface. He feels that knowledge is immeasurably important when offering his analytical expertise. He has lived on five continents and currently resides in Canada.