Weather Odds 2024: Which Airports Will See Snow on December 25?

It's a Christmas lover's dream – and a traveler's nightmare.

A Dec. 25 snowfall is a divisive event, welcomed by many who are hunkered down for the holidays but reviled by anyone who has somewhere else to be – particularly if that voyage requires air travel. Even a modest amount of snow can play havoc with travel schedules – and the heavier it gets, the more likely you're going to have to reschedule.

Let's examine which notable airports around the world are most likely to see the white stuff on Dec. 25 (odds courtesy as of Dec. 11 at 7 a.m. ET):

Will it snow at these airports on December 25?

December 25 airport snowfall favorites

Montreal Mirabel International Airport (-120)

It's a coin flip in oddsmakers' eyes on whether Mirabel will see show, with identical odds on the "Yes" and "No". It's interesting that we have two-way action potential here, as this is probably among the worst "Yes" value plays on the board given the unpredictability of weather markets in general.

Mirabel didn't see any precipitation on Dec. 25, 2023, but did receive snow on that day in both 2021 and 2022. Precipitation also greeted airport patrons on Christmas Day 2020, but it came in the form of rain with temperatures peaking at 10 C (51 F). The long-range outlook suggests temperatures will hover around the freezing mark this Dec. 25.

Toronto Pearson International Airport (-120)

One of the largest airports in North America, Pearson International Airport also has the second-highest probability of seeing a Christmas Day snowfall among locales on this list.

Areas just north of the Ontario capital have already been walloped by winter weather – Central Ontario has seen up to 75 centimeters (30 inches) already – but Toronto has escaped the brunt of it. That said, Pearson has seen snow on four of the previous seven Christmas Days, and while long-range forecasts predict above-zero temps in 2024, things can change quickly.

December 25 airport snowfall contender

Boston Logan International Airport (+200)

Google AI (I know) suggests that Logan International has a ~25% chance of seeing snowfall on Christmas in any given year; the weather at Boston's main airport has been largely hit or miss in recent years, but you could do worse than taking a flier on Logan seeing at least some snow on Dec. 25 given how quickly snow showers can form in the area.

December 25 airport snowfall long shot

Vancouver International Airport (+800)

Anyone who has lived through a few British Columbia Christmas seasons know that you're far more likely to see rain than snow on Dec. 25. Vancouver has celebrated a white Christmas just four times in the previous 31 years, most recently in 2021. These odds were well off when they opened, but are now in line with actual probability.

My Picks

Montreal and Toronto are far and away the two strongest options on this board – and I don't see much difference in probability between the cities given their proximity (and similar weather most days, particularly in the winter), so give me both Toronto Pearson International Airport and Mirabel International Airport at -120 each, with an added sprinkle (no pun intended) on Boston Logan International Airport at +200.

Warmest city on December 25: North America

(Odds updated Dec. 11 at 7 a.m. ET)