Taylor Swift Odds: New "Taylor's Version" Album Coming Soon?
Last Updated: November 4, 2024 6:44 AM EST • 9 min 10 sec read.
LATEST UPDATE (Oct. 28, 8 a.m. ET): New market alert! We've added Celebrity Guest Appearance on Stage odds for Swift's Eras Tour stops in Toronto – and Rebecca runs through the viability of the top candidates. Check it out below!
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Has there been an artist, ever, as prolific as has been in the last five years?
Since 2019, she’s released five studio albums, four re-records of her previous work, gone on a record-breaking tour, produced a record-breaking movie of that tour, and just yesterday announced she’s releasing physical copies of previously digital-only full double album, , and self-publishing a book about that tour which will be, barring some unforeseen calamity, her first bestseller.
And even with all of that, there’s no doubt the crowds will still be chanting, “More!”
As a card-carrying, memorabilia-collecting, soon-to-be nine-time-Eras-Tour-attending Swiftie since 2006, I can readily admit that as a collective, we’re something akin to rabid. Absolutely feral. Borderline frightening.
We constantly speculate about what’s coming next—even if we just got a new album the week before—and pick apart Taylor’s every move, outfit, soundbite, nail polish choice, and tiny hair braid for clues about what she’s planning. We’ve even developed not one but two games centered on guessing her tour outfits and surprise songs that we take as seriously as any fantasy sports league. It’s not normal.
But, as the woman herself once sang, “I am what I am ‘cause you trained me.”
Taylor has built her empire on a foundation of Easter eggs. She leaves clues everywhere. Her plans are so meticulous and far-reaching that she wondered aloud to Stephen Colbert if she could hint at something three years in advance. (That’s an interview that still haunts Swifties, by the way, especially as the three-year anniversary approaches. What does it mean??) Some of her hints, she says, have still never been found.
So, it’s no wonder that even with all Taylor has produced in the past half-decade, Swifties still live in a constant vigilance. It’s no wonder that we can’t stop speculating (or “clowning” as we like to call it) about what the next surprise will be. Or, more accurately, when it will be because the widely held belief is that , the re-recording of her sixth studio album, is what’s next.
Here's a look at the odds for when that announcement will come (courtesy of , updated Oct. 28 at 8 a.m. ET):
What day will Taylor Swift announce Reputation (Taylor's Version)?
Date Range | Odds | Implied probability | Profit on $10 bet |
---|---|---|---|
January 2025 and after | 33.90% | $19.50 | |
Dec. 2-15 | +300 | 25.00% | $30 |
Nov. 4-17 | +380 | 20.83% | $38 |
Nov. 18-Dec. 1 | +1500 | 6.25% | $150 |
Dec. 16-31 | +2600 | 3.70% | $260 |
Now, have Swifties been speculating the Reputation (Taylor’s Version) announcement was imminent since before Taylor announced back in 2022? Yes. Is there an embarrassingly long list of dates we clowned for that resulted in absolutely nothing? Yes. But it is coming.
Taylor only has two more albums left to re-record in her quest to own the masters of her first six albums after the originals were sold to Scooter Braun back in 2019 by her former label. And the conventional wisdom is that the re-recording of her debut album, the impossibly perfectly named Taylor Swift (Taylor’s Version) will come last in a full circle moment that will leave Swifties everywhere in puddles of tears.
But when will the announcement come? Let’s break down some factors that could affect the timing of the album announcement through the end of the year (and beyond).
A quick note for the uninitiated: there is a chance that Reputation (Taylor’s Version) will be a surprise drop. When the original version of the album came out in 2017, Taylor was coming off a year out of the public eye and did next to no promotional press. She famously , “There will be no further explanation. There will just be reputation.” And Taylor, who loves to top the charts, has had still managed to debut at number one with less than 24 hours between announcement and drop with both her 2020 releases Folklore and Evermore.
Nov. 4-17 (+380)
I’m inclined to think Taylor is more likely to spend her bye week resting, encouraging Americans to vote on Nov. 5th, and watching and his Kansas City Chiefs play the Denver Broncos at Arrowhead Stadium on Nov. 10th. She returns to tour for the start of a record-setting six nights on a single tour at Toronto’s Rogers Centre on Nov. 14th.
An announcement in this stretch also cuts close to the release of Book and physical copies of The Tortured Poets Department: The Anthology on Nov. 29th. She’s unlikely to muddy the waters with an additional announcement.
Nov. 18-Dec. 1 (+1500)
See above. I can’t imagine a Reputation (Taylor’s Version) announcement during a two-week period that includes American Thanksgiving and the release of a book and double album.
With Taylor Alison Swift, the odds of something chaotic are never zero, but this isn’t where I’d put my money.
Dec. 2-15 (+300)
For my money, this is where things start to get really interesting.
The release of The Anthology puts a nice cap on the TTPD era and frees Taylor to usher in the new aesthetic for Reputation (Taylor’s Version) without things feeling unfinished. We also have two highly significant events in the period: the final show of the Eras Tour and Taylor’s 35th birthday.
As I’ll be attending the final show on Dec. 8th in Vancouver with my best friends, and Reputation is my favorite album, I’m formally inviting Taylor to please announce the re-recording then. What better way to end a tour all about the previous eras of her career, after all?
Beyond my personal biases, there is something poetic about closing out the Eras era by announcing when she’ll reclaim one of the final pieces of her legacy. I wouldn’t even be surprised to see her announce release dates for both remaining re-recordings, leaving the door open for whatever she decides to do next; onwards and upwards.
Taylor’s birthday on Dec. 13th is another potential announcement day. Thirteen is famously her lucky number and this year the date falls on a Friday, the day of the week when albums come out. A surprise drop (there will be no explanation…) or a release announced on a previous occasion seem like strong possibilities.
Dec. 16-31 (+2600)
I can’t see it happening. There’s too much going on during the holiday season and Taylor will want to spend her time with her family after a grueling two years on the road. If anything, maybe she’ll surprise us with Taylor’s Versions of the original tracks from 2007’s Sounds of the Season: The Taylor Swift Holiday Collection?!
Well, a girl can dream.
One caveat: Reputation’s closing track is called New Year’s Day. A New Year’s Eve announcement with a midnight release would be kind of magical. Besides, Swifties have predicted a Reputation (Taylor’s Version) drop on New Year’s Day for the past four years, maybe it is time for Taylor to throw us a bone.
January 2025 and after (+190)
If you’re one for pattern recognition, you’ll like this one. Let’s look at Taylor’s recent announcement history:
- 2021: and
- 2022: Midnights
- 2023: and
- 2024: The Tortured Poets Department
If the pattern holds, we can expect the final two re-recordings in 2025. For what it may be worth, thus far in her career, she has never announced an album during a different calendar year than its release.
A 2025 announcement also allows Taylor to relax post-tour and lessens the likelihood of public backlash to her releasing so many albums in a short period. Although, personally, I don’t think there is such a thing as too many Taylor Swift albums. Obviously.
My pick: Dec. 2-15 (+300)
While what might be coming on Friday is an intriguing mystery, I’m sticking with either Dec. 2-15 or a long wait until 2025. Taylor Swift loves symbolism, which the December dates are rife with, and she loves those Easter eggs, like a pattern of alternating between re-recordings and new studio albums that becomes clear once it is complete.
Whenever the announcement comes, it will certainly be epic. And at least we still have 18 Eras Tour shows to keep Swifties busy while we wait.
Celebrity Guest Appearance on Stage at the Eras Tour Toronto
Guest | Odds | Implied Probability | Profit on $10 Bet |
---|---|---|---|
-1500 | 93.75% | $0.67 | |
-160 | 61.54% | $6.25 | |
-160 | 61.54% | $6.25 | |
+250 | 28.57% | $25 | |
+380 | 20.83% | $38 | |
+460 | 17.86% | $46 | |
+600 | 14.29% | $60 | |
+600 | 14.29% | $60 | |
+750 | 11.76% | $75 | |
+750 | 11.76% | $75 | |
+750 | 11.76% | $75 | |
+750 | 11.76% | $75 | |
+750 | 11.76% | $75 |
If there’s one thing that Swift loves to do on tour, it’s to surprise her audience with a special guest.
It’s a tradition that started with the Fearless Tour and reached its peak during the 1989 World Tour (which featured at least one surprise guest each night). Special guests on the Eras Tour have been more sporadic, but they’ve ranged from featured artists on Taylor songs, to producers, to friends, to opening acts.
Surprise guests sometimes appear at shows in their hometowns, states, or countries, and are common at big nights like the final show or a tour leg or one where a music video is debuted.
With only fifteen Eras shows left, every show seems like a big night and whatever surprises Taylor has planned are bound to be bigger and better than ever. That first three shows of the leg already featured guests spots from Florence + the Machine and we’re just getting started!
Taylor plays a record-breaking six nights at Toronto’s Rogers Centre next month. It’s one of the tour’s longest stretches of shows in one city and makes up the majority of the remaining concerts. A surprise guest at at least one night in Toronto seems almost guaranteed. The question is, who?
Let’s break down some of the potential candidates!
Gracie Abrams (-1500)
No one is busier than Taylor, but Gracie comes close. She opened fourteen shows during the first North American leg of the Eras Tour, took a break to drop an album (which included the Taylor collab, “us”), performed the US leg of her tour, and is now back to open all eighteen shows of the final Eras leg. She’s already appeared twice during the acoustic/surprise song set, most recently performing “us” with Taylor in London on June 23.
It’s a pretty safe bet that Gracie will join Taylor on stage again before the tour is out. If even bigger things are in the works for the final three shows in Vancouver, Toronto might be the perfect time for that – and the astronomical implied probability says FanDuel agrees.
Shawn Mendes (-160)
Shawn opened for Taylor on the 1989 World Tour, was a special guest on the Reputation Stadium Tour, and collabed with her on a remix of the titular track from her seventh album, Lover. Needless to say, Shawn is very much a part of the Taylor Swift Cinematic Universe (TSCU). Better yet, he’s from Ontario! What better way to make an Eras Tour appearance than at what’s essentially a hometown show?
That said, his guest spot on the Reputation Stadium Tour was … in Pasadena, so hometown loyalty might not be a deciding factor.
Aaron Dessner (-160)
Aaron has appeared on the Eras Tour six times, holding the record for any surprise guest. Until now, he has only joined Taylor on stage for US shows, in Tampa (twice), Nashville, Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, and Santa Clara. His Santa Clara show (which I was supposed to attend but missed thanks to illness) was all the way back in July 2023.
As one of Taylor’s two main musical collaborators, it’s hard to believe he won’t make another appearance on the Eras stage. And, if Dessner’s absence during the international shows was due to distance or travel, Toronto would be a perfect option – of the final cities, it’s the closest to his home and studio in upstate New York.
Check out the rest of Rebecca's breakdown in the full article.
What color skirt will Taylor Swift wear for the 1989 era on Nov. 14?
Color | Odds | Implied probability | Profit on $10 bet |
---|---|---|---|
Blue | +195 | 33.90% | $19.50 |
Gold | +280 | 26.32% | $28 |
Green | +300 | 25.00% | $30 |
Pink | +340 | 22.73% | $34 |
Purple | +430 | 18.87% | $43 |
Orange | +500 | 16.67% | $50 |
Since we’re on the subject of the final leg of the Eras Tour, here’s another market to consider. For the European leg of tour, Taylor debuted usually mismatched top and skirt combos worn during the 1989 set. With 36 potential combos (and only one mismatched combo and one matching set left unworn), predicting what colors Taylor will wear for each show quickly became a fun game of probability.
At this point, she has had to start repeating the mismatched combinations, which makes predictions much harder, but if you’re planning to bet on what color skirt Taylor will wear Nov. 14 in Toronto, here’s a quick breakdown of the facts.
- The yellow or gold skirt (+280) has been worn nine times. It is the only skirt that has an unworn mismatched combination. One show has passed since it was last seen two nights in a row in New Orleans.
- The orange skirt (+500) has been worn ten times. One show has passed since it was last seen in Indianapolis.
- The purple skirt (+430) has been worn 11 times. It was worn at the final night in Indianapolis (most recent).
- The blue skirt (+195) has been worn nine times, including on opening night of the European leg. Blue is the color associated with the 1989 era. It is the only skirt that did not appear during the final run of U.S. shows. Twelve shows have passed since it was last seen in London.
- The pink skirt (+340) has been worn 11 times. Two shows have passed since it was last seen in Indianapolis.
- The green skirt (+300) has only been worn six times. It is the only skirt that has not been worn with the matching top. It is also the skirt that has gone the longest without an appearance, missing 18 shows between being worn in Zurich and finally reappearing in Miami. Eight shows have now passed since said reappearance.
My Pick: Yellow or gold skirt (+280)
I’m committed to the yellow skirt until that final combination has been worn, but going by the numbers pink and purple are ever so slightly the favorites. However, the blue skirt could be poised for a grand re-entrance (especially if paired with its matching 1989 blue top). If you’re feeling risky, bank on the Taylor Swift love of being unpredictable and choose the green.
Rebecca Mallary