Taylor Swift Eras Tour Toronto Surprise Song Odds: Last Kiss the Favorite

Sometimes Taylor Swift loves being unpredictable so much that she builds it directly into her setlist. No, I’m not being hyperbolic.

On the first night of the Eras Tour, Taylor explained to all of us in the audience that she wanted to challenge herself to play songs from her discography that were not already in the 42 song setlist. You know, because she wasn’t doing enough already. Thus, what she calls the “acoustic set” and everyone else on earth refers to as “surprise songs,” came to be.

In 2023, the rules for surprise songs were fairly straightforward: one song on guitar, one on piano, different every show, no repeat songs unless she’d made a mistake playing it or the track was from Midnights (at the time, her most recent studio album). Taylor is prolific, so this still left about two hundred songs for her to pick from every evening, but as the tour went on, your probability of guessing correctly increased simply by process of elimination. 

Those were the good old days. She was not about to let us Swifties get set in our ways.

First, she announced surprise songs would reset in 2024. Next, she started performing mash-ups which increased the number of songs a night to as many as five. Then, she started repeating songs—any song from any album. After that, she released another 31 tracks and restructured the setlist. 

So, I set out to figure out the best way to approach choosing a strong bet. I made an eight tab spreadsheet analyzing the over 400 surprise songs she’s played so far by year, album, percentage, tour leg, and more. I searched for patterns, increases, repeated songs, etc.

 And I came to the conclusion that I have absolutely no idea what this blonde lady is gonna do.

So, what I can offer you is data, opinions, anecdotes, and what I think is some pretty solid advice, but very little certainty. Taylor is Taylor and she will make choices that continue to shock and surprise even those of us who know her discography best. The chaos is baked into the very structure of the show, but that’s what makes it so much fun!

I’ve taken the odds from FanDuel Canada and broken them down for you, album by album, including the number of songs performed from each.

Taylor Swift Eras Tour Toronto Surprise Songs Odds

Taylor Swift

Number of surprise songs: 24

Our Song

On the one hand, “Our Song” was one of Taylor’s first singles and one of the most well-known tracks from her self-titled debut album—the re-recording of which Swifties are convinced Taylor has been leaving more Easter eggs for than ever. On the other hand, one of those suspected Easter eggs is that she’s played so many more debut songs on the final leg of tour, including this one in New Orleans on Oct. 25th.

A Perfectly Good Heart

This Taylor Swift bonus track has only been played once, in Zurich in July. It’s a good song for mashing-up. However, if she’s aiming to play all of the self-titled tracks in 2024—leading up to a 2025 re-release—a song that won’t be a repeat might be a better bet.

Stay Beautiful

It’s been almost a year since “Stay Beautiful” graced the acoustic set in Rio on Nov. 17th, 2023. If you’re banking on all debut album songs being played in 2024, this is a solid choice.

Fearless

Number of surprise songs: 35

Come In With the Rain

This lesser known Fearless track was played in Tokyo in February pre-mash-ups becoming the norm. Taylor has a lot of songs with rain imagery that could make for compelling lyrical mash-ups, but the fact that it hasn’t happened yet (and that Fearless surprise songs seems to be declining in frequency), could mean it won’t.  

That's The Way I Loved You

This was played in Lisbon on May 24th in a rare three song mash-up. No real reasons for or against its return, honestly. It’s a fun song with lots of mash-up potential, so I wouldn’t be surprised to hear it, but I wouldn’t expect it either.

Superstar

This song about being madly in love with a singer who has no idea who you are was played in Gelsenskirchen on July 17th. It’s incredibly meta to watch Taylor Swift, most famous person in the world, sing, “I’m no one special, just another wide-eyed girl who’s desperately in love with you,” and as the Eras Tour nears its end, she may be in the mood to explore the bond between singer and audience a second time.

(Personally, I would love that hear this mashed up with “The Smallest Man Who Ever Lived” from The Tortured Poets Department, but that’s on the permanent setlist, so it is not to be.)

That's When

Only two songs from Fearless remain unplayed on tour and this vault track is one of them! Interestingly, “That’s When” is a duet with Keith Urban. Keith hasn’t made a guest appearance on the Eras Tour, but when he was a guest for the 1989 World Tour, it was in Toronto. Could Taylor have saved this track for just that reason? 

Untouchable

Fun fact: most people don’t know that this is a cover. Larely because Taylor made so many changes to it that she still earned a writing credit for the Fearless track. “Untouchable” has been played twice on tour, most recently in Amsterdam on July 4th. It’s a song that works really well on guitar or piano, so it has double the mash-up potential.

Change

It’s wild to me that Change has only been played once at the Eras Tour—in London on Aug. 19th. While that’s pretty recent, this is a song will likely resonate with a lot of people at this moment in history. Plus, it’s about community, a theme we may see a lot of as Taylor says farewell to the tens of thousands of fans she’s seen almost every weekend for two years.

Speak Now

Number of surprise songs: 41

Last Kiss

This Speak Now track has been performed twice on the Eras tour, most recently in Zurich on July 9th. To Swifties, July 9th is considered Last Kiss Day because the lyrics mentioned the date. The previous performance of this song was on July 8th, 2023 in Kansas City—the closest tour date to the unofficial holiday—and coincided with the release of Speak Now (Taylor’s Version) the day before.

Last Kiss is beloved by fans, so a third performance is not out of the question, but it may be that only Swifties who attended Last Kiss Day shows will hear it live.

Better Than Revenge

For the most part, the Taylor’s Versions of songs tend not to stray too far from the originals, aiming to recreate the original tracks. “Better Than Revenge,” however, received a substantial lyric change. 

The original contained the lyric, “...she’s an actress, but she’s better known for the things that she does on the mattress.” Taylor isn’t nineteen anymore and she (and the fandom) grew-up to realize this lyric is slut-shaming and not in line with the brand or beliefs of someone who has famously and repeatedly been shamed for her dating life. “Better Than Revenge (Taylor’s Version),” glowed up with the lyric, “he was a moth to the flame he was holding the matches.”

She’s only played the new lyrics live once, in Buenos Aires on Nov. 12th, 2023. It would be nice to hear them again before the end of tour.

Innocent

I’m a believer that no Taylor Swift song is about just one thing or person, but it’s pretty safe to say this one is largely inspired by Kanye West and the incident at the 2009 VMAs. Once upon a time, Taylor left little clues for each song in the album liner notes; the one for “Innocent” said, “Life is full of little interruptions.” She performed the song at the 2010 VMAs in what she likely hoped was the end of that narrative (spoiler: it wasn’t).

Taylor played this one is São Paulo in Nov. of last year before the release of The Tortured Poets Department. Might we see it mashed-up with its spiritual sister, “thanK you aIMee” before this November is over? Definitely not outside the realm of possibility.

Superman

Originally a bonus track on the deluxe edition, Superman was played once in Tokyo in February. While that’s certainly long enough ago to allow for a repeat, the song is pretty polarizing in the fandom; many people feel it is Speak Now’s weakest track.

I think the song is pretty fun, but I also think that for this last stretch of shows, Taylor will stick to tracks she knows the fans will be really pumped to hear.

When Emma Falls In Love

Taylor and Emma Stone have been friends for over a decade. While neither of them have confirmed that this vault track is about that Emma, when Taylor played it in Kansas City on July 7th, she told the audience, “This song is about one of my best friends.” Seems pretty cut and dry.

This one was played on the release date of Speak Now (Taylor’s Version). It may have already had its big moment.

Foolish One

Another Speak Now (Taylor’s Version) vault track, “Foolish One” was played in Singapore in March. The vault tracks from the re-recordings of Speak Now and 1989 have had less time to shine since they were released during tour, but the 1989 tracks have gotten a lot more surprise song airplay.

Red

Number of surprise songs: 49

Forever Winter

This is one of only seven songs from her main studio album discography that haven’t been performed on tour and, as I see it, one of the three least likely to ever take the stage. “Forever Winter,” which deals with themes of mental health and suicide, is believed to be about Taylor’s experience losing a close friend. 

She’s said she’s unable to perform “Soon You’ll Get Better”—about mom Andrea’s battle with cancer—on stage. “Ronan,” about the death of a small child to cancer, has only ever been played with Ronan’s mother (whose blog inspired the track and earned her a co-writing credit) in attendance. It seems likely that “Forever Winter” falls into the same category. 

Girl At Home

This is another one has not been played on the Eras Tour! That could be because “Girl At Home” got a controversial makeover for the Taylor’s Version of the track, taking it from a country song to something more akin to her current synth-pop style. I’ve come to believe this was how she always envisioned the song and used her new creative freedom to realize that, but reactions from the fans were mixed. (I confess I called it an “abomination” the first time I heard it though I’m now on board.)

Tour could be a great moment to perform the song acoustically and give those who prefer the original version a nod, but she also might want to steer clear of it (and the discourse) entirely. 

Everything Has Changed

The first of her collaborations with Ed Sheeran, Taylor has performed “Everything Has Changed” four times on tour (three times in 2024). The most recent performance was in London in August when Ed made a surprise appearance on stage. Given its frequent use, Taylor clearly loves to perform it, but I don’t really expect to hear it again post-London.

Unless Ed shows up to guest for a second time; then all bets are off. 

Run

Another Ed Sheeran collab! This vault track was not part of Taylor and Ed’s mash-up in London and has only been played once, in Hamburg without him on July 24th. In my opinion, it’s the least interesting of Ed’s features and the weakest of the Red (Taylor’s Version) vault tracks. Considering it took 121 shows for Taylor to perform it the first time, I don’t expect to see it in the final nine.

The Very First Night

Given the song’s refrain is, “I miss you like it was the very first night,” I think there is a very good chance Taylor will play this again before the end of tour. She’s only played it once before—her first night in Buenos Aires in Nov. 2023. Funnily enough, that was the first of her final nine shows of 2023. Perhaps Toronto on Nov. 14, 2024, the first of her final nine shows on tour, would be a fitting parallel?

I’m just saying, we all know Taylor loves a pattern.

1989

Number of surprise songs: 52

Clean

Taylor already played this one on the second North American leg; on Oct. 27th in New Orleans. However, she’s played it six times throughout tour—once with less than a month between performances—so you never know. It’s definitely a fan favorite. My social media feeds have a meltdown from jealousy every time she plays it. (Full disclosure: I also melt down from jealousy every time she plays it.)

Out of the Woods

Like “Clean,” Taylor has already played “Out Of The Woods” on this leg of the tour—in Miami on Oct. 20th—and she’s played it six times. 

Only a handful of mash-ups have had repeat performances, but the combination of “Out Of The Woods” and “Is It Over Now?” was not only the first mash-up ever, it’s the only pairing that has been performed three times (once with the addition of, you guessed it, “Clean”). Since then, the track has also been paired with “Getaway Car” and “All You Had to Do Was Stay.” Taylor is clearly fond of this one and finds it versatile. Plus, the fans love it.

Of the songs that have already been played on this leg, I think it’s one of the most likely to return.

I Know Places

We’ve heard “I Know Places” twice during the acoustic set, but it hasn’t made an appearance since June 7th in Edinburgh. This is another track that I wouldn’t be surprised to hear, but also wouldn’t immediately think to expect. It has some cool vocal flourishes that make it interesting for a mash-up. A solid choice if you feel like backing a dark horse.

Reputation

Number of surprise songs: 30

End Game

The studio version of “End Game” features both Ed Sheeran and Future. It’s been a surprise song twice; Ed and Taylor played it during their London mash-up in August along with “Everything Has Changed.”

Unlike its counterpart, “End Game” includes lyrics that can easily allude to Travis Kelce, (ie. “I wanna be your first string”), which could make it more likely to show up again sans Ed.

Gorgeous

As many speculate we’re leading up to a Reputation (Taylor’s Version) announcement before the end of tour, Rep tracks are highly anticipated by the fans and I wouldn’t count any of them out. She’s played “Gorgeous” twice, most recently in Stockholm back in May.

Dancing With Our Hands Tied

Pretty much the same deal as “Gorgeous.” Any Reputation song is on the table, it’s been performed twice, but this one hasn’t been heard since Dublin in June.

So It Goes

For some reason, “So It Goes” has always been the neglected stepchild of Reputation. It was the only album track not included on the permanent Reputation Stadium Tour setlist, and Taylor’s only performed it once on the Eras Tour. November 20th in Rio was a long time ago, so you’d think it was due for a comeback, especially if she wants to perform every Reputation song this year pre-announcement. If that’s not her goal, however, it’s a risky bet.

I Did Something Bad

Taylor waited 129 shows to play this fan favorite. Swifties, of course, convinced ourselves that there was only one possible reason for this delay: she was saving it for the Reputation (Taylor’s Version) announcement. 

I was in the crowd the night in London when she finally played it and until that moment I did not know the true meaning of “the crowd went wild.” In my video, you can very clearly scream to my sister that, “I’m having a cardiac event!!” (I wasn’t; that’s just the sort of thing I say.)

We shrieked! We clung to each other! We jumped up and down and sang at the top of our lungs! We braced ourselves for the announcement of our favorite album!

We clowned, everyone. We completely clowned. 

After the song, she put down her guitar, walked to the piano, and continued the show like she had not just made an entire stadium (and everyone at home watching on livestreams) lose our collective minds. What was the reason, Taylor??

After this long, inexplicable “I Did Something Bad” drought, she performed it again only four shows later in Miami. She loves mayhem, so it’ll almost definitely appear again before tour ends.

Lover

Number of surprise songs: 32

Death by a Thousand Cuts

Another fan favorite! This one has been played six times, making it one of the most frequent tracks to grace the acoustic set. However, Taylor just played it for the final U.S. show in Indianapolis on Nov 3rd. Don’t waste your money.

ME!

Lover’s lead single is another extremely polarizing track. Some people love it for being a sugary, unserious bop. Other people hate it so much that accusations fly about the haters bullying Taylor into removing a spoken line from the recording and kept her from putting in on the main Eras Tour setlist. When she played it on the acoustic guitar in Rio last November, however, the response seemed much more positive.

Taylor was clearly proud of the song and it’s self-love message once upon a time, and it would be fun to see her mash it up with something equally bouncy. I’d say there is a good chance, but certainly no guarantee, that “ME!” will make a second appearance before tour ends.

Folklore

Number of surprise songs: 24

This is Me Trying

This song is just so relatable. When Folklore was released in July of 2020, this was the first song that I, and many other former gifted children, were initially drawn to. We’re all just trying our best! However, “This Is Me Trying” has been performed during the acoustic set four times, including on this leg of the tour in Miami on Oct. 18th which may mean it has finished its run.

Peace

We heard this track in Sydney in February. It’s gorgeous, but the slower songs on the back half of Folklore don’t always get the love they deserve. Notably, the song was last played before the release of The Tortured Poets Department, and shares some themes with a number of TTPD songs that could make for really interesting (and devastating) mash-ups. It wouldn’t have occurred to me initially, but I think “Peace” is one to watch.

Hoax

Another underrated gem from the back half of the album. “Hoax” made its only appearance on the Eras Tour in Dublin in June. Again, I think its themes would pair well with tracks from The Tortured Poets Department, but it feels less likely than “Peace” simply because we’ve heard it more recently.

Evermore

Number of surprise songs: 27

Closure

Sonically, the production on the studio version of “Closure” tends to be divisive, but the pots-and-pans sounds don’t apply to live performances so the reception for it in Zurich this July was more universally positive. The full circle, end of the journey narrative of the piece does feel fitting with the end of tour. Plus, as Taylor has classified Evermore as a fall/winter album, and the Canadian dates are likely to be the coldest of the entire tour, it just feels right that we might see an uptick in songs from this album in these last nine shows.

For some reason, I think a return of “Closure” is most likely if there is another guest appearance from Aaron Dessner, who actually says “Happy Birthday” to Evermore when her mother forgets about her. (This joke is for the Swifties who are chronically online; if you don’t get it, that means you’re normal.)

'Tis the Damn Season

Well, for one thing it’s literally the damn season. This track has a complicated history with the Eras Tour. After the addition of The Tortured Poets Department, the Folklore and Evermore sets were combined and a number of songs were cut. “‘Tis The Damn Season” was originally part of the Evermore set but was replaced with the Haim feature “No Body No Crime” for the shows the band opened, and then cut completely. So, we’ve seen the song more often than any other song on this list, but only once as a surprise song on June 7th in Edinburgh.

I do think we’ll see “‘Tis The Damn Season” again before the end of tour—either reappearing in the setlist for a night or as a surprise song—but the December shows in Vancouver feel most likely.

It's Time To Go

This Evermore bonus track was performed for the second time in Gelsenkirchen on July 19th. It’s an extremely likely surprise song for one of these last nine shows. I mean, just look at the name.

Happiness

Despite its title, this is one of the saddest (but hopeful) songs on Evermore. It didn’t make the cut for the 2023 shows, but she played it in Hamburg on July 23rd. I don’t anticipate seeing it again, but I also can’t think of a particular reason for her to avoid it.

Long Story Short

This is the bounciest track on Evermore and I love it so much, but it also falls into the “I simply have no idea” category. It was performed on the first U.S. leg and in Lyon this June. It’s fun. Could go either way.

Midnights

Number of surprise songs: 47

Hits different

How this bonus track didn’t end up on the main album will forever be a mystery to me. It’s a bop and has one of the best bridges in the Swift/Antonoff catalogue (which is saying something). However, we’ve seen it three times, and only four shows have passed since it was played in New Orleans on Oct. 26th. If it makes another appearance, I’d look for it later on in the Toronto dates or in Vancouver.

Glitch

This often overlooked 3AM track was a surprise song in Lyon in June. There’s no compelling reasons for or against “Glitch” other than the whims of a mercurial popstar. This choice would honestly be a shot in the dark.

Paris

We’ve seen Paris as a surprise song twice—during two shows in Paris this May. There’s no rule saying that the song can’t be performed anywhere else, of course, but I’m inclined to think Taylor will let the City of Love have their moment.

Labyrinth

Taylor appeared to summon a plane to complement the performance of “Labyrinth” in Bueno Aires last year, but there were no signs of witchcraft in Gelsenkirchen in July. This is a sweet song. No arguments for or against it.

Dear Reader

I have my reasons for thinking this song will appear for a third time, and not in time for the first Toronto date, but I’m keeping the details of that prediction underwraps for now. Of course, Taylor is who she is, so like every song in the discography, it could appear at any time, or it may have taken its second and final bow in Hamburg this July. Only time will tell. 

My Pick

I’ve given you all the tools at my disposal! What more do you want from me?? 

Okay. Fine. I'm going with "Peace" (+750), simply because of all the viable options, it intrigues me the most.