Next James Bond Odds: Taylor-Johnson Favored to Be the Next Bond; Berger to Direct Bond 26?

A franchise that has appointed seven different actors under 11 directors will once again be taking auditions for the first time in 20 years – and it falls on us to see if we can uncover the identity of the ever-elusive 007.

With the 2021 installment No Time to Die retiring take on the iconic agent, the markets have been hard at work trying to determine the 26th James Bond. Without even a script or director, the responsibility for this monumental casting falls on the shoulders of . The Broccoli family has been the production powerhouse responsible for pumping out all 25 film iterations of the super-spy over the last 59 years.

As of right now, the market shows clear front-runners for both the director and leading actor, with more of a struggle in the race for the theme song. We’ll look at each market on its own and see if we can find value ahead of the blockbuster announcements

Next James Bond Odds

(Updated Nov. 14 at 6:45 a.m. ET)

Next James Bond Picks

As one-time Bond Pierce Brosnan said, more people have walked on the moon than have played James Bond (Indeed that is correct, with the score 12-7 to NASA).

Even before Daniel Craig’s official exit from the series in 2021, speculation was rife on who may get the call. Following the release of the 25th film, Barbara disclosed that nobody was yet in the running for Bond 26, and that the approach to this film would be different, as a “reinvention of Bond”. She insisted that playing Bond was a 10–12-year commitment, implying that age was going to be an eliminating factor for a lot of the names that were under public consideration.

Within the market, there are names like Murphy (48), Elba (52), and Hardy (47) holding almost 30% of the betting equity when they have next to no chance of signing on to this massive project at this age. Still, despite the reinvention Barbara stated the role would remain familiarly British, resulting in this nearly entirely British race for the role as the next James Bond.

Aaron Taylor-Johnson (-125)

Leading the pack is Taylor-Johnson, who really burst onto the scene and into people’s fan casting with his suave performance in 2022’s hit Bullet Train.

The 34-year-old led the Netflix blockbuster donned in a brilliant blue three-piece suit opposite to , giving fans an unofficial audition for the role he is now a favorite to land. With an expensive -125 price by his name, Taylor-Johnson holds more than half the equity in this market with a 56% chance of becoming the next Bond. The driving force behind that price is a series of tabloid rumors claiming the role had already been offered and accepted by Taylor-Johnson, but months later and the elusive agreement is still yet to be produced or announced.

Taylor-Johnson stars in Kraven debuting later this month, another high-octane action role, but the film has been mired with reshoots and release schedule changes and is unlikely to make back much of its reported $200 million budget in the box office next month. With his current body of work, and with Kraven unlikely to swoon many, I don’t see how Taylor-Johnson holds this much equity in such a volatile race full of budding British talent, and while I think he deserves to be leading the race, I don’t see the value on a bet at -125.

Of course, a lot can change in the years it will take to make this project, and with more credible reports into the alleged agreement or with a price change in market, Taylor-Johnson remains the name to watch.

Damson Idris (+900)

London’s Idris is another rising star and one of the youngest to add to the exciting fresh names on this market.

The 32-year-old has found his breakthrough on hit television series like Snowfall and Black Mirror, but his biggest boost in this race comes from earning a role in Joseph Kosinski’s 2025 project F1. Much like Taylor-Johnson, though Idris may not be starring in the big lead role himself for his big breakout, he is set to also be a beneficiary of starring alongside Brad Pitt in a summer blockbuster.

At +900, he currently holds just a 10% chance of earning the role, but the surprise announcement has created a positive buzz for Idris and any of his future projects could benefit from this influx of support, not to mention if a visionary director like Steve McQueen is awarded the project and moves for a Black-British James Bond story.

Henry Cavill (+750)

A perennial James Bond candidate, Cavill is no stranger to the suggestion that he should be the next MI6 recruit. Starring alongside in Mission Impossible, Cavill provided fans a glimpse of what he was capable of as an undercover agent, but Cavill may be more suited for superhero than superspy. Despite his enthusiasm and admiration for the role, at 41 he may just be a bit too old and physically a bit too big to fit into the super-sleuth James Bond role. Having reportedly auditioned for this role in 2005 with Daniel Craig, this ship may have sailed and Cavill’s equity in this race is slowly diminishing despite public admiration.                  

My Pick

Bet on Damson Idris (+900) to get the keys to the Aston Martin.

Bonus longshot: Johnathan Bailey (+9500). In 100 worlds, is there really only one outcome in which Bailey is the 26th James Bond like the market implies? I don’t think so.

James Bond 26 Director Odds

(Updated Nov. 14 at 8:45 a.m. ET)

James Bond 26 Director Picks

Edward Berger (+125)

Leading Fanduel’s market for Bond 26’s director is Edward Berger, a German Austrian responsible for the WW1 epic All Quiet on the Western Front and more recently the acclaimed thriller Conclave, which is certain to improve Berger’s tally of Academy Award nominations.

The huge share of equity he enjoys at +125 seemingly stems from a summer article claiming Berger was a name on the producer’s radar, but other than the rumour and an admitted admiration for Bond there is nothing else to justify a 44% chance for Berger. He is an esteemed director responsible for stunning cinematography and critically enjoyed art, but that may not be exactly the vision of the often action-filled James Bond franchise, and to me this seems more like a “best director available” than a “best director for Bond 26”.

Christopher Nolan (+430)

Always in the conversation to direct any movie is perhaps one of the greatest auteurs of our time in Christopher Nolan.

Hot off the sweeping success of Oppenheimer earlier this year, fans are excited for Nolan’s next project and are hoping that it may be an espionage-thriller in James Bond 26, giving him a respectable +430 price and a 19% chance at becoming the next director. However, despite the market respect, Nolan seemingly already has found his next project, and it doesn’t sound like its going to be Bond 26. Nolan’s follow-up to his Best Picture winner has been slated for a 2026 release and will begin filming later next year, starring , , and .

Regardless of this booking conflict, Nolan was never likely to get along with the commanding constraints of the Broccoli family and has famously turned down huge studio productions for not aligning with his vision. Despite the popularity and Nolan’s interest in the idea, at +430 this is a pass.Ho

Steve McQueen (+2600)

One of the few British names on this list, Sir Steve McQueen is another film powerhouse and Academy favourite responsible for powerful storytelling.

He is a considerable +2600 longshot on Fanduel , giving him only 3% of the equity in this race, but with us dismissing much of the equity that the names like Berger and Nolan hold, directors like McQueen may benefit. Martin Campbell (+750), who previously directed two Bond films and surely will not be considered for Barbara’s “reinvention”, and Denis Villeneuve (+1000) are also booked and won’t be entertaining any projects like Bond. This gives us a considerable amount of equity to reassign which McQueen can capitalize on with the release of his take on Britain’s resolve in World War 2 in Blitz, released earlier this month.

A familiar name to the Academy and the British public alike, Steve McQueen is a visionary that can get the best out of his actors and would be a huge boost for the character’s reinvention and rebranding as a deeper, more sophisticated take on the action series.

My Pick

Bet on Sir Steve McQueen (+2600) to lead the new Bond reinvention.

Bond 26 Theme Singer Odds

(Updated Nov. 14 at 7:45 a.m. ET)

Bond 26 Theme Singer Picks

One of the biggest honors of a singer’s career, the titular theme song to accompany every James Bond film can become as iconic as the character itself. Covered by artists like Adele, Sam Smith, and Billie Eilish, the theme has almost always gone on to charting as the biggest song in the world, and Bond 26 is unlikely to buck that trend.

Chappell Roan (+170)

One of the biggest new artists of the entire year, Roan is simply too hot to go unnoticed, and her unique style and charisma has landed her a 37% chance of earning the theme song, coming in at +170. Whild undoubtedly one of the biggest stars of the year, Roan is a bit too green for my liking and the recent trend almost demands a very cemented staple from the pop industry.

Lana Del Rey (+250)

Already having a song narrowly rejected in 2015 to become the chorus of Spectre, Del Rey is the pen behind some of the biggest pop music hits in our lifetime. The iconic crooner laughed over her shortcomings in 2015, still holding out for the future, and following her Grammy nominated 2023 album this may be the perfect time for the industry to reward her.

Lady Gaga (+340)

Another music icon having a fantastic year, Gaga is given a respectable 23% chance of singing the next Bond theme. Her powerful ballad style and her fresh covers of industry classics make her a fantastic choice to theme the next film.

My Pick

Bet on Lana del Rey (+250) to finally get her big industry moment.