Grammys Betting Predictions, Odds 2025: Beyonce, Sabrina Carpenter Set for Big Nights
Last Updated: November 27, 2024 9:07 AM EST • 7 min 62 sec read.
The 67th Annual Grammy Awards will take place at 8 p.m. ET on Sunday, February 2, 2025, at Crypto.com Arena in Los Angeles. The event will be broadcast live on CBS and it will be live streamed and available on demand on Paramount+.
Beyonce leads all performers with 11 nominations, bringing her career total to 99. Will Cowboy Carter be the big winner on Grammy night, or will Album of the Year remain elusive for Beyonce? Those looking to take down Beyonce include Charli XCX, Billie Eilish, Kendrick Lamar, and Post Malone who each earned seven nominations.
Read on for our predictions in 13 categories,
including Album of the Year, Record of the Year, and Song of the Year ( odds updated Nov. 26 at 3 p.m. ET)
Album of the Year Odds
Album (Artist) | Odds | Implied Probability | Profit on $10 Bet |
---|---|---|---|
Hit Me Hard and Soft (Billie Eilish) | +140 | 41.67% | $14 |
The Tortured Poets Department (Taylor Swift) | +195 | 33.90% | $20 |
Cowboy Carter (Beyonce) | +380 | 20.83% | $38 |
Brat (Charli XCX) | +430 | 18.87% | $43 |
The Rise and Fall of a Midwest Princess (Chappell Roan) | +750 | 11.76% | $75 |
Short n' Sweet (Sabrina Carpenter) | +1900 | 5.00% | $190 |
New Blue Sun (Andre 3000) | +3400 | 2.86% | $340 |
Djesse Vol.4 (Jacob Collier) | +3700 | 2.63% | $370 |
Four-time Album of the Year winner Taylor Swift is nominated in the category yet again, though The Tortured Poets Department isn’t favored. Instead, Billie Eilish is favored to win with Hit Me Hard and Soft. While the odds predict that one of these two will win the award, there are plenty of other stories at play in this category.
Beyonce is nominated for Cowboy Carter. The album opened with the third-shortest odds of the eight albums nominated for the award. Beyonce has never won Album of the Year despite winning the most Grammys in history. Will that resonate with voters who want to see her finally take home the elusive award?
While I’m not giving New Blue Sun, Djesse Vol.4, or The Rise and Fall of a Midwest Princess a shot, there are two other albums worth a look. Brat by Charli XCX was a huge part of the cultural zeitgeist during “Brat Summer,” and Sabrina Carpenter has been in the headlines a lot lately for the antics taking place at her live shows. Carpenter’s Short n’ Sweet would be my longshot play right now, as it has odds of +1900. But at the end of the day, getting Swift at nearly 2-to-1 is like getting the Kansas City Chiefs as underdogs in the Super Bowl. You have to take it.
My Pick: The Tortured Poets Department - Taylor Swift (+195)
Record of the Year Odds
Record (Artist) | Odds | Implied Probability | Profit on $10 Bet |
---|---|---|---|
Espresso (Sabrina Carpenter) | -160 | 61.54% | $6.25 |
Not Like Us (Kendrick Lamar) | +430 | 18.87% | $43 |
Birds of a Feather (Billie Eilish) | +750 | 11.76% | $75 |
Now and Then (The Beatles) | +1000 | 9.09% | $100 |
Good Luck, Babe! (Chappell Roan) | +1100 | 8.33% | $110 |
Fortnight (Taylor Swift feat. Post Malone) | +1400 | 6.67% | $140 |
Texas Hold 'Em (Beyonce) | +1900 | 5.00% | $190 |
360 (Charli XCX) | +2400 | 4.00% | $240 |
“This is America” by Childish Gambino won Record of the Year in 2019. To this day, it remains the only rap song to win the award. Could “Not Like Us” by Kendrick Lamar become the second this February?
Right now, “Not Like Us” has the second-best odds to win the award behind only “Espresso” by Sabrina Carpenter. Interestingly, “Espresso” isn’t even nominated for Song of the Year, so it’s hard to use the odds from that award to gauge this one. Going with my gut, I’m taking the longer shot in this category where the songs couldn’t be any more different from each other.
The only other seemingly viable options are “Birds of a Feather” by Billie Eilish and “Now and Then” by The Beatles. “Birds of a Feather” is favored to win Song of the Year, but Record of the Year and Song of the Year haven’t gone to the same song at either of the last two awards ceremonies. I don’t think voters are going to care enough about The Beatles, but “Fortnight” by Taylor Swift featuring Post Malone could be a good dark horse pick.
My Pick: “Not Like Us” - Kendrick Lamar (+430)
Song of the Year Odds
Song (Artist) | Odds | Implied Probability | Profit on $10 Bet |
---|---|---|---|
Birds of a Feather (Billie Eilish) | -180 | 64.29% | $5.56 |
Not Like Us (Kendrick Lamar) | +480 | 17.24% | $48 |
Good Luck, Babe! (Chappell Roan) | +550 | 15.38% | $55 |
Die with a Smile (Lady Gaga and Bruno Mars) | +750 | 11.76% | $75 |
Texas Hold 'Em (Beyonce) | +1300 | 7.14% | $130 |
Fortnight (Taylor Swift feat. Post Malone) | +1400 | 6.67% | $140 |
Please Please Please (Sabrina Carpenter) | +1900 | 5.00% | $190 |
A Bar Song [Tispy] (Shaboozey) | +3100 | 3.13% | $310 |
“Birds of a Feather” is the favorite in this category with odds of -180. The category is loaded with big names, but it is the newest member of the bunch, Chappell Roan, who is Eilish’s biggest competition in this category. Roan’s “Good Luck, Babe!” has the second-shortest odds to win at +550.
“Die with a Smile” by Lady Gaga and Bruno Mars and “Not Like Us” each have odds better than +1000 to win this award. Perhaps there is reason to take a look further down the list, especially with “Texas Hold ‘Em” by Beyonce and “A Bar Song (Tipsy)” by Shaboozey being very popular. Shaboozey is currently +3100 to take home this award.
However, while it could be fun to take a longshot, “Birds of a Feather” is the biggest favorite to win any of the big three awards. Though I’m looking at underdogs in the other major categories, I’ll stick with the favorite here. After all, some voters may feel that Eilish was robbed last year when she won Song of the Year but failed to win Record of the Year.
My Pick: “Birds of a Feather” - Billie Eilish (-180)
Best Dance/Electronic Album Odds
Album (Artist) | Odds | Implied Probability | Profit on $10 Bet |
---|---|---|---|
Brat (Charli XCX) | -1500 | 93.75% | $0.67 |
Timeless (Kaytranda) | +1400 | 6.67% | $140 |
Hyperdrama (Justice) | +1500 | 6.25% | $150 |
Telos (Zedd) | +2400 | 4.00% | $240 |
Three (Four Tet) | +3400 | 2.86% | $340 |
There are two favorites at this year’s Grammys with odds of -1500. Brat by Charli XCX is one of them. The album is the only one in this category that was also nominated for Album of the Year. It’s such a massive favorite, that the next best odds are +1400 (for Timeless by Kaytranda, if you were wondering). Brat was a defining album of the year that was. The same can’t be said for any other album in this category. It’s boring, but the favorite is the right pick.
My Pick: Brat - Charli XCX (-1500)
Best New Artist Odds
Artist | Odds | Implied Probability | Profit on $10 Bet |
---|---|---|---|
Chappell Roan | -750 | 88.24% | $1.33 |
Sabrina Carpenter | +1000 | 9.09% | $100 |
Shaboozey | +1300 | 7.14% | $130 |
Raye | +1600 | 5.88% | $160 |
Benson Boone | +3100 | 3.13% | $310 |
Teddy Swims | +3100 | 3.13% | $310 |
Doechii | +3700 | 2.63% | $370 |
Khruangbin | +4800 | 2.04% | $480 |
If you’re looking for a place to land a big upset, this is the likely category. Chappell Roan is a massive favorite to win this award, but at -750, the price isn’t worth it. The two names that I’m looking at are Sabrina Carpenter and Shaboozey. Shaboozey is an interesting one because he was shut out at the CMA Awards despite earning two nominations. Will the success of “A Bar Song (Tipsy)” be enough to carry him to this award? Ultimately, I don’t think so. Instead, I’m going to take Carpenter, who is “new” despite “Short n’ Sweet” being her sixth studio album. While Roan is fading as the year comes to a close, Carpenter is peaking. She’s one of the most-discussed artists right now, and at +1000, there is really no reason not to take a chance.
My Pick: Sabrina Carpenter (+1000)
Best Pop Solo Odds
Song (Artist) | Odds | Implied Probability | Profit on $10 Bet |
---|---|---|---|
Espresso (Sabrina Carpenter) | -430 | 81.13% | $2.33 |
Birds of a Feather (Billie Eilish) | +500 | 16.67% | $50 |
Good Luck, Babe! (Chappell Roan) | +750 | 11.76% | $75 |
Bodyguard (Beyonce) | +3100 | 3.13% | $310 |
Apple (Charli XCX) | +3700 | 2.63% | $370 |
If all favorites win during the ceremony, then could we end up with a huge upset in this category? Favorites winning will mean victories for “Espresso”, “Birds of a Feather,” and “Good Luck, Babe!” The other two nominees, “Bodyguard” by Beyonce and “Apple” by Charli XCX have odds greater than +3000. If one of these longshots was going to win, I’d take “Bodyguard,” as this may be the only place for Beyonce to win. That said, I’ll go with “Birds of a Feather” to pull the upset and win the second award of the night.
My Pick: “Birds of a Feather” - Billie Eilish (+500)
Best Pop Vocal Album Odds
Album (Artist) | Odds | Implied Probability | Profit on $10 Bet |
---|---|---|---|
Short n' Sweet (Sabrina Carpenter) | +125 | 44.44% | $12.50 |
The Rise and Fall of a Midwest Princess (Chappell Roan) | +150 | 40.00% | $15 |
Hit Me Hard and Soft (Billie Eilish) | +340 | 22.73% | $34 |
The Tortured Poets Department (Taylor Swift) | +1500 | 6.25% | $150 |
Eternal Sunshine (Ariana Grande) | +1900 | 5.00% | $190 |
This may be the most wide-open category at this year’s event. Short n’ Sweet is currently favored at +125, while The Rise and Fall of a Midwest Princess is set at +150. Hit Me Hard and Soft has the third-best odds in the category at just +340, and then the two longshots in the category are albums by Taylor Swift and Ariana Grande. In such a wide-open category, it feels weird to take the favorite, but that’s what I’m going to do. I talked about Carpenter’s momentum earlier, and I think it’s going to make a difference in February.
My Pick: Short n’ Sweet - Sabrina Carpenter (+125)
Best Pop/Duo Group Odds
Song (Duo/Group) | Odds | Implied Probability | Profit on $10 Bet |
---|---|---|---|
Die with a Smile (Lady Gaga and Bruno Mars) | -550 | 84.62% | $1.82 |
Guess (Charli XCX ft. Billie Eilish) | +750 | 11.76% | $75 |
Beyonce (Beyonce ft. Post Malone) | +1100 | 8.33% | $110 |
Us (Gracie Abrams ft. Taylor Swift) | +1600 | 5.88% | $160 |
The Boy is Mine (Ariana Grande, Brandy and Monica) | +2600 | 3.70% | $260 |
There isn’t much to discuss here. “Die with a Smile” is the only song nominated in another major category. The song by Lady Gaga and Bruno Mars is favored with odds of -550, which is significantly better than any other song. Right now, “Guess” by Charli XCX and featuring Billie Eilish has the second-best odds at +750. Though this category is loaded with big names, there’s no reason to expect the heavily favored duo of Gaga and Mars to lose this to any of the others.
My Pick: “Die with a Smile” - Lady Gaga and Bruno Mars (-550)
Best Rap Song Odds
Song (Artist) | Odds | Implied Probability | Profit on $10 Bet |
---|---|---|---|
Not Like Us (Kendrick Lamar) | -1500 | 93.75% | $0.67 |
Like That (Future, Metro Boomin and Kendrick Lamar) | +1100 | 8.33% | $110 |
Asteroids (Rapsody ft. Hit Boy) | +1300 | 7.14% | $130 |
Yeah Glo! (GloRilla) | +3800 | 2.56% | $380 |
Carnival (Kanye West and Ty Dolla $ign) | +4800 | 2.04% | $480 |
Aside from Brat winning Best Dance/Electronic Album, this is the biggest lock of the night. “Not Like Us” is favored in this category with current odds of -1500. The Kendrick Lamar song is a legitimate contender for Record of the Year, there’s nothing in this category that can compete. “Like That” from Future, Metro Boomin, and Lamar is the second favorite at +1100, but I think the song draws dead by having Lamar associated with it. If they have to choose between Kendrick Lamar songs, most voters are going to choose “Not Like Us.”
My Pick: “Not Like Us” - Kendrick Lamar (-1500)
Best Rock Album Odds
Album (Artist) | Odds | Implied Probability | Profit on $10 Bet |
---|---|---|---|
Saviors (Green Day) | -195 | 66.10% | $5.13 |
Dark Matter (Pearl Jam) | +250 | 28.57% | $25 |
Hackney Diamonds (Rolling Stones) | +1100 | 8.33% | $110 |
Romance (Fontaines DC) | +1400 | 6.67% | $140 |
No Name (Jack White) | +1600 | 5.88% | $160 |
Tangk (Idles) | +2400 | 4.00% | $240 |
Happiness Bastards (The Black Crowes) | +3100 | 3.13% | $310 |
Green Day has won this category twice, but they haven’t taken home the award since 2010. In their history, the band has been nominated 23 times with five Grammy wins. Their album Saviors is favored, but could potentially get upset by Pearl Jam’s Dark Matter. Pearl Jam has never won this award, but they do have two Grammy wins. In the end, I don’t expect much drama, as Green Day wins as a rather large favorite.
My Pick: Saviors - Green Day (-195)
Best Rock Song Odds
Song (Artist) | Odds | Implied Probability | Profit on $10 Bet |
---|---|---|---|
Broken Man (St. Vincent) | -430 | 81.13% | $2.33 |
Dilemma (Green Day) | +340 | 22.73% | $34 |
Dark Matter (Pearl Jam) | +1900 | 5.00% | $190 |
Beautiful People [Stay High] (Black keys) | +2400 | 4.00% | $240 |
Gift Horse (Idles) | +3700 | 2.63% | $370 |
Is Dave Grohl playing drums going to be enough to win St. Vincent their fourth Grammy? They previously won Best Rock Song for “Masseduction” in 2019. Even though Grohl’s drumming is on display in this song, I ultimately don’t think that it’s worth taking it to win at -430. That’s a very steep price when heavy hitters like Green Day, Pearl Jam, and Black Keys are also nominated. For +340, I’ll take Green Day to sweep the rock categories.
My Pick: “Dilemma” - Green Day (+340)
Best Visual Media Compilation Odds
Movie | Odds | Implied Probability | Profit on $10 Bet |
---|---|---|---|
Twisters | -180 | 64.29% | $5.56 |
Saltburn | +340 | 22.73% | $34 |
The Colour Purple | +700 | 12.50% | $70 |
Maestro | +1200 | 7.69% | $120 |
Deadpool and Wolverine | +1500 | 6.25% | $150 |
Twisters is favored to take home this award, but I think that the hit film from this summer is a far cry from a lock to win this award. At -180, I wouldn’t touch the favorite. Therefore, I’m between two movies, as I believe either Saltburn or The Color Purple will take home this award. Saltburn has the shorter odds, and while I think that there’s a chance the Grammys elect to award a film that received very little recognition in The Color Purple, I’m sticking with Saltburn. The reason: It has “Murder on the Dancefloor” and The Color Purple doesn’t.
My Pick: “Saltburn” (+340)
Best Visual Media Score Odds
Movie | Odds | Implied Probability | Profit on $10 Bet |
---|---|---|---|
Dune: Part Two | -160 | 61.54% | $6.25 |
Challengers | +160 | 38.46% | $16 |
Shogun | +1400 | 6.67% | $140 |
The Colour Purple | +2400 | 4.00% | $240 |
American Fiction | +3700 | 2.63% | $370 |
In 2022, the Grammys missed the opportunity to reward Hans Zimmer for his Dune score, instead giving the award to Jon Batiste, Trent Reznor, and Atticus Ross for Soul. Once again, Zimmer will be going up against Reznor and Ross, as his score for Dune: Part Two battles the Ross and Reznor score for Challengers. While Zimmer could end up losing to two titans of the music industry, I think that the Grammys take this opportunity to reward Zimmer for one of the biggest films of the year, especially without a dominant second choice like there was three years ago.
My Pick: Dune: Part Two (-160)
Grammy Awards FAQs
When will the 2024 Grammy Awards take place?
The Grammy Awards will take place on Sunday, Feb. 2, 2025, at 8 p.m. ET.
Where are the Grammy Awards held?
The Grammys will be held at Crypto.com Arena in Los Angeles.
Who will host the Grammy Awards?
No host has been announced for the Grammys at this time.
How can I watch the Grammy Awards?
The Grammys will air live on CBS, and they will stream on Paramount+. They can also be found on demand on Paramount+.
Philip Wood