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Stars vs. Maple Leafs Betting Prediction & Odds Today: Best Picks for Jan. 14

Gary Pearson

Last Updated: January 14, 2025 12:00 PM EST • 3 min 4 sec read.

Toronto Maple Leafs William Nylander against the Philadelphia Flyers as we offer our Stars vs. Maple Leafs prediction.
Toronto Maple Leafs William Nylander against the Philadelphia Flyers. Photo by Eric Hartline via Imagn Images

The Toronto Maple Leafs better be up for Tuesday's encounter as they welcome one of the league's most in-form teams when the Dallas Stars' wagon rolls into Scotiabank Arena (7 p.m. ET, ESPN+). 

The Stars clearly didn't overindulge over Christmas, as they lost for the first time in eight games against the Ottawa Senators on Sunday. They've also improved markedly on the road, finally living up to their Stanley Cup odds hype. 

The Maple Leafs have lost two in a row after winning five straight, and I expect Craig Berube's squad to be the best version of themselves in our Stars vs. Maple Leafs betting prediction and player prop picks. 

Stars vs. Maple Leafs predictions today

NHL odds via our best NHL betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale.

  • Prediction: Maple Leafs ML (-105 via Betway) ⭐⭐⭐
  • Jason Robertson prop pick: Over 2.5 shots (-106 via Betway) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
  • William Nylander prop pick: Over 2.5 shots (-130 via Betway) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

My best Stars vs. Maple Leafs prediction: Maple Leafs ML ⭐⭐⭐

It piques my interest anytime I see the Maple Leafs as home underdogs.

That tells us a lot about the quality and form of the visiting Stars. While there's no getting away from the Dallas wagon rolling confidently into Scotiabank Arena, let's not forget the Maple Leafs have the eighth-best home points percentage (.680). 

And it's only recently their points percentage at Scotiabank Arena dipped to eighth. In the weeks prior, they were consistently among the five best at home. 

A disconcerting trend is developing for the Maple Leafs, which I'm sure Berube has already impressed upon his team. They are 5-0-0 in the last five against teams that aren't in a playoff position and 1-4-0 versus those that are.

Tuesday's contest against one of the NHL's elite provides an ideal opportunity for Berube's squad to set the record straight. 

Joseph Woll, who has won his last four home starts, will get the nod. He's played some of his best hockey in Toronto, and I expect another strong outing from the team's current No. 1. It's been almost three months since the Maple Leafs have lost three in a row, another reason I'm backing them to prevail. 

Dallas still reaching for the stars on the road

Despite the Stars winning five of the last six in enemy barns, they still have just the 12th-best road points percentage (.550). That shows how abject they were prior to their latest fruitful run. 

In addition, Dallas has lost three in a row in Toronto and struggles to play its best there. 

Best odds: -105 via Betway | Implied probability: 51.22%

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Best Stars vs. Maple Leafs player prop picks

NHL picks made Tuesday; odds subject to change.

Jason Robertson prop pick: Over 2.5 shots ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Like most teammates, Robertson has been much better since the Christmas break. He is shooting more, especially on the road, as he's stepped up his play. That's resulted in hitting the Over in three of the last four and five of the previous six in enemy rinks. 

A winning $10 bet will profit $9.43. 

Best odds: -106 via Betway | Implied probability: 51.46%

William Nylander prop pick: Over 2.5 shots ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: -130 via Betway | Implied probability: 56.52%

There was a time you couldn't find a shot prop for Nylander set under 3.5. The 2.5 total shows a gradual and consistent decrease in his shot production, and it's taking a toll on his scoring production. Nylander has just one goal in his last 10 games, a stark decline from what we saw earlier in the campaign. 

He has only hit this Over once in the last four games. However, before the last two Unders on home ice, Nylander had a five-game consecutive run of registering at least three shots.

Nylander almost always gets his looks against the Stars, whom he's had at least three shots against in eight straight.  

Stars vs. Maple Leafs injuries

Stars vs. Maple Leafs live odds & info

  • When: Tuesday, Jan. 14
  • Puck drop: 7 p.m. ET
  • Where: Scotiabank Arena (Toronto)
  • How to watch: ESPN+
  • Favorite: Stars (-115 via Betway)

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Written By:
Gary Pearson
Gary Pearson has written professionally since 2010, focusing on sports betting since 2014. Before entering the sports betting space, he contributed to the Canadian Press, FanSided, the Hockey Writers, the Calgary Herald, and other publications. His work has also been featured in Sports Illustrated and Bleacher Report. Gary, who consumes sports like a blue whale devours plankton, has a penchant for writing predictions and analyses across several sports, including hockey, soccer, football, tennis, and more. He bets regularly, preferring single-game picks, props, and live betting. While there isn't a sport he has yet to dabble in, Gary prefers betting on soccer, hockey, and football. He studied at various post-secondary institutions, including the University of Calgary, SAIT Polytechnic, and Griffith University, located in Brisbane, Australia. Gary has a marketing degree and completed his bachelor's degree in journalism at Griffith University. He feels strongly that life experience is as essential as post-secondary education, helping formulate more accurate predictions and analyses. Gary believes that competing at a high level of amateur sports during his formative years helped him better understand an athlete's psyche and the nuances and complexities of a team's dynamic, both on and off the playing surface. He feels that knowledge is immeasurably important when offering his analytical expertise. He has lived on five continents and currently resides in Canada.