Stanley Cup Odds & Playoff Probabilities: Playoff Matchups if They Started Today
Last Updated: March 14, 2025 9:48 AM EDT âĸ 5 min 38 sec read.
Playoff hockey is just around the corner as the beasts of the East and the best of the West battle to enter the playoffs as the most feared, formidable units.
With the substantially shifting, the Dallas Stars and Florida Panthers ascended to their perch as co-favorites to win hockey's Holy Grail.
As a battle between Western Conference juggernauts is on tap Friday when the Stars and Jets collide, it's an idyll time to take stock of the Stanley Cup odds and playoff probabilities, providing a picture of how the postseason would look if it started today.
đ Stanley Cup odds, playoff probabilities đ
Here are the live Stanley Cup odds from our best NHL betting sites ahead of Friday's matchup between the Winnipeg Jets and Dallas Stars.
What would the playoff matchups be if they started today?
First-round matchups if the playoffs started on Friday, March 14. Stanley Cup odds via FanDuel.
Western Conference first-round matchups
WC2 Flames đĨ (+23000) vs. C1 Jets âī¸ (+1400)
The Winnipeg Jets are the most likely team to secure the top seed in the Western Conference. Scott Arniel's squad is eight points up on the Dallas Stars and nine ahead of the Vegas Golden Knights with 16 games remaining. The Stars have two games in hand, and they meet the Jets in Winnipeg on Friday (8 p.m. ET, NHL Network).
If the Jets fly into the postseason as the No. 1 seed, they'll play the Flames, Vancouver Canucks, Utah Hockey Club, or St. Louis Blues. But my money is on a Jets vs. Canucks first-round matchup. However, don't count out a Flames team that has raised eyebrows for all the right reasons, primarily thanks to a smothering defense and Calder Trophy odds contender Dustin Wolf's heroics in goal.
WC1 Wild đī¸ (+3200) vs. P1 Golden Knights â (+1000)
The Minnesota Wild would face the Vegas Golden Knights in another, and this one will likely happen. The Wild have been holding on by a thread since Kirill Kaprizov and Joel Eriksson Ek suffered injuries, while the Golden Knights are 8-2-1 in their last 11 games and are rounding into peak form.
Even if Kaprizov and Eriksson Ek are confident and healthy, I'm backing the Golden Knights.
C2 Stars â (+600) vs. C3 Avalanche â°ī¸ (+800)
Yes, please. It would be a rematch of last season's second-round tilt, which the Stars won in six games. And it will likely come to fruition. Both teams have been much stronger after languid, sluggish starts to the season. It would pit one of the league's most well-rounded teams, the Stars, against Colorado's high-end talent that can beat anyone on their day.
Both were two of the foremost trade deadline winners.
P3 Oilers đĸī¸ (+900) vs. P2 Kings đ (+2600)
If the playoffs started today, I would back the Los Angeles Kings to upend the former long-time Stanley Cup odds favorites. The wheels haven't completely fallen off in Edmonton, but they are wobbling ferociously. The Oilers still have time to figure things out but that window continually narrows.
By the time the playoffs start, the Oilers - led by Hart Trophy odds favorite Leon Draisaitl and Connor McDavid - should be back to their former best. If that's the case, the Oilers will advance.
Eastern Conference first-round matchups
WC2 Blue Jackets đ (+18000) vs. M1 Capitals đī¸ (+1100)
In my recent Stanley Cup picks and predictions, I backed the New York Rangers as my long-shot pick. They must first nudge past the surprising Columbus Blue Jackets, who currently hold the last wild-card spot on a tiebreaker. The Blue Jackets have overachieved all season, especially offensively.
However, if this matchup comes to fruition, the Capitals and the Great 8, who we follow via our Alex Ovechkin goals record odds, should get through in five or six games.
WC1 đĄī¸ Senators (+4800) vs. A1 đ Panthers (+480)
Wouldn't it be cool to see the Tkachuk bash brothers face each other in the playoffs? I'd love to see them knock the silent T out of each other's last name.
The Ottawa Senators are in pole position in the wild-card race. They've been one of the more streaky teams this season but are flying now. I like them to continue riding their wave of momentum all the way to the playoffs, which would be their first appearance in seven years.
They'll be in tough against the Stanley Cup odds favorite Florida Panthers, who are as stacked as stacked can get. Matthew Tkachuk should return for the postseason, and Brad Marchand will also be suiting up by then.
A2 Maple Leafs đ (+1500) vs. A3 Lightning đŠī¸ (+1600)
This would project to be the most-evenly matched first-round matchup in the Eastern Conference. Toronto leads the season series, but we all know the Lightning have had more recent playoff success.
Both teams retooled at the trade deadline, but Lightning goaltender Andrei Vasilevskiy is likely the best - and most important - player in this potential matchup.
M2 Hurricanes đĒī¸ (+1100) vs. M3 Devils đ (+3200)
An almost guaranteed first-round tilt will see the Carolina Hurricanes and New Jersey Devils collide. The Hurricanes have found some chemistry post-Mikko Rantanen, while the Devils were the biggest losers at the trade deadline. Plus, New Jersey is without Jack Hughes for the rest of the season. I think we all know which team will advance.
đ° Probability of making the playoffs đ°
Teams not mentioned below are almost guaranteed playoff berths or have been eliminated from contention. Remaining strength of schedule looks at a team's remaining games and calculates the combined points percentage for all those opponents, via Tankathon.com
| Team | Playoff probability (MoneyPuck.com) | Remaining strength of schedule |
|---|---|---|
| Senators | 92.3% | .535% |
| Rangers | 55.9% | .559% |
| Utah | 31.6% | .542% |
| Canucks | 31.6% | .557% |
| Flames | 29.9% | .549% |
| Blues | 20.2% | .524% |
| Blue Jackets | 16.5% | .562% |
| Islanders | 14% | .574% |
| Canadiens | 12.8% | .554% |
| Red Wings | 9.3% | .608% |
| Bruins | 5% | .532% |
| Ducks | 0.3% | .559% |
| Flyers | 0.1% | .554% |
| Penguins | 0.1% | .545% |
â Stars vs. âī¸ Jets odds, prediction, preview: Friday, 8 p.m. ET
The Jets welcome the Stars to Canada Life Centre on Friday as the favorites across our best sports betting apps. Despite the Stars boasting the NHL's best record since Dec. 29 (22-7-1), I'm backing the Jets to prevail.
The Stars have lost four of the previous eight in enemy rinks, while the Jets are the league's second-best home team. Plus, runaway Vezina Trophy odds favorite Connor Hellebuyck has won 21 of 27 games and secured four of his five shutouts at home.
I'm locking in the pick at FanDuel, where the Jets are the -138 favorites. The Stars are the +115 underdogs, and the game starts at 8 p.m. ET (NHL Network).
Pick: Jets ML (-138) via FanDuel ($7.25 profit on $10 bet)
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Stanley Cup, playoffs FAQs
Who is the Stanley Cup Final favorite?
The Panthers are the 2025 Stanley Cup odds favorites. Their best odds stand at +650, representing an implied win probability of 13.33%, according to our odds converter.
Who won the Stanley Cup last year?
The Panthers defeated the Oilers in seven games, winning 2-1 in Game 7 on home ice to claim the Stanley Cup last year.
When do the NHL playoffs start?
The NHL regular season ends Thursday April 17. The playoffs should start on Saturday, April 20.
When does the Stanley Cup Final start?
The 2024 Stanley Cup Final began Saturday, June 8 and finished on June 24. Those are rough dates to expect the 205 final to be played.
When was the last back-to-back Stanley Cup winner?
The Tampa Bay Lightning won back-to-back Stanley Cups in 2020 and 2021. Previously, the Pittsburgh Penguins won it in 2016 and 2017, and the Detroit Red Wings in 1996 and 1997.
When was the last Stanley Cup three-peat?
The New York Islanders were the last team to win the Stanley Cup in three successive seasons. They won four in a row from 1980 to 1983.
NHL betting odds pages
| Stanley Cup Odds | Hart Trophy Odds | Calder Trophy Odds |
| Norris Trophy Odds | Vezina Trophy Odds | Rocket Richard Odds |
| Jack Adams Award Odds | Conn Smythe Trophy Odds | NHL Draft Odds |
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Gary Pearson
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