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Penguins vs. Maple Leafs Prediction, Picks & Odds for Saturday's NHL Game

Gary Pearson

Last Updated: October 12, 2024 10:24 AM EDT • 3 min 34 sec read.

Toronto Maple Leafs center Auston Matthews skates with the puck as we offer our Penguins vs. Maple Leafs prediction.
Toronto Maple Leafs center Auston Matthews skates with the puck against the New Jersey Devils. Photo by Ed Mulholland via Imagn Images

The Toronto Maple Leafs haven't lost a home opener since 2015-16, a run of eight straight victories at the Scotiabank Arena.

On Saturday, the Buds look to make it nine on the bounce when Sidney Crosby and his Pittsburgh Penguins come knocking. The Maple Leafs, among the 10 Stanley Cup odds favorites, won two of three against the Penguins last season and return home after a solid all-round display in New Jersey on Thursday, which saw them pick up their first win. 

The Penguins enter the game with the same 1-1 record after also securing victory on Thursday, beating the Detroit Red Wings 6-3. 

Our Penguins vs. Maple Leafs prediction focuses on the three-way moneyline to find the best value, while honing in on a game and player prop. 

Penguins vs. Maple Leafs prediction

Odds via our best NHL betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale.

My best bet: Maple Leafs win in regulation (3-way ML) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: | Implied probability: 55.56%

The Maple Leafs show up for home openers like somebody starting a new job, eager, focused and mentally sharp, but their eight-game win streak at Scotiabank Arena to kick off the season isn't the only reason I'm backing them to beat the Pens in regulation. 

Of course, I'd prefer a regular moneyline pick that allows for an overtime or shootout win, but the -190 odds don't offer enough value to follow that path.

The Maple Leafs won the last four home openers by a goal, two of which went to overtime. Both of those contests were against Montreal. 

They won three of the previous four by at least two goals, including two by three goals. 

Eye test and analytics favor the Maple Leafs 

The Maple Leafs started the season well under Craig Berube's watchful eye.

They were unfortunate not to win in Montreal, where they had five expected goals but didn't light the lamp. Toronto followed that unjust loss with a superb 60-minute effort in New Jersey, where they rocketed to a 3-0 first-period lead and only allowed 23 shots.

That's precisely the type of defensive protection a rookie goaltender dreams of in his NHL debut. Dennis Hildeby was the primary benefactor, securing the victory on his debut.

Both games had all the quintessential Berube markings, particularly defensively. 

I expect that same attention to detail tonight in Toronto, which should prove problematic for the visitors. The Penguins were woeful in their debut against the Rangers, losing 6-0, and followed that performance up with a victory in Detroit. While the Penguins won that game by three goals, they had just 3.22 expected goals for and 3.35 against. 

Netminder Joel Blomqvist and opportunistic scoring from the big guns were the primary reasons for their triumph. While we're still in the embryonic stage of the season, Toronto leads the league in expected goals differential (5). 

Plus, Anthony Stolarz, who turned aside 26 of 27 shots in Montreal, will get the nod after resting on Thursday. The Pens will go with  rookie Blomqvist, giving the rookie his second straight start after impressing in his Detroit debut. Let's see how he performs on the big stage on Hockey Night in Canada. 

I don't think this result changes regardless of who is in goal for the Pens, although it's a nice tip of the cap to the 52nd pick in the 2020 draft.

If the Maple Leafs win before overtime, you'll earn an $8 profit on a $10 bet. 

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Penguins vs. Maple Leafs player prop bet

NHL picks made Saturday; odds subject to change.

Auston Matthews prop bet: 2+ points ⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: +135 via Betway | Implied probability: 42.55%

I backed Matthews to score in New Jersey, and he had a golden opportunity to do so but missed an open, albeit long-range, empty net with less than a minute to go.

His odds to score tonight are too rich for my blood (-134), so I'm venturing down the 2-point road. He has not registered a point in two games, and Matthews has a streaky tendency. 

He scored a goal and an assist the last time he played the Pens in Toronto. A winning $10 bet profits $13.50. 

Maple Leafs prop bet: 32+ shots ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: -110 via Betway | Implied probability: 52.38%

The Maple Leafs have registered at least 32 shots in five of eight games during their current eight-game home opener winning streak. Usually, on opening night, they come out firing indiscriminately. I expect the same against a Pens team that allowed 40 shots against New York and 32 in Detroit. 

Penguins vs. Maple Leafs live odds & info

  • When: Saturday, Oct. 12
  • Puck drop: 7 p.m. ET
  • Where: Scotiabank Arena (Toronto)
  • How to watch: Sportsnet, NHL Network
  • Favorite: Maple Leafs -190 via Betway

Penguins-Maple Leafs predictions made Saturday at 9 a.m. ET.

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Written By:
Gary Pearson
Gary Pearson has written professionally since 2010, focusing on sports betting since 2014. Before entering the sports betting space, he contributed to the Canadian Press, FanSided, the Hockey Writers, the Calgary Herald, and other publications. His work has also been featured in Sports Illustrated and Bleacher Report. Gary, who consumes sports like a blue whale devours plankton, has a penchant for writing predictions and analyses across several sports, including hockey, soccer, football, tennis, and more. He bets regularly, preferring single-game picks, props, and live betting. While there isn't a sport he has yet to dabble in, Gary prefers betting on soccer, hockey, and football. He studied at various post-secondary institutions, including the University of Calgary, SAIT Polytechnic, and Griffith University, located in Brisbane, Australia. Gary has a marketing degree and completed his bachelor's degree in journalism at Griffith University. He feels strongly that life experience is as essential as post-secondary education, helping formulate more accurate predictions and analyses. Gary believes that competing at a high level of amateur sports during his formative years helped him better understand an athlete's psyche and the nuances and complexities of a team's dynamic, both on and off the playing surface. He feels that knowledge is immeasurably important when offering his analytical expertise. He has lived on five continents and currently resides in Canada.