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Penguins vs. Canadiens Prediction, Picks & NHL Odds Tonight

Gary Pearson

Last Updated: October 14, 2024 2:12 PM EDT • 2 min 32 sec read.

Montreal Canadiens forward Cole Caufield celebrates with teammates after scoring a goal against the Toronto Maple Leafs as we offer our best Penguins vs. Canadiens prediction.
Montreal Canadiens forward Cole Caufield celebrates with teammates after scoring a goal against the Toronto Maple Leafs. Photo by Eric Bolt via Imagn Images

Sam Montembeault has won both of his starts thus far, allowing one goal and turning aside 73 of 74 shots.

I'm riding his hot glove in my Penguins vs. Canadiens prediction, banking on the two Stanley Cup odds long shots to score fewer than six goals for the fourth time in their last five encounters. 

  • The Pens won all three games against the Canadiens last season, and two of three were decided in overtime
  • The Canadiens are 2-0 at home, outscoring Toronto and Ottawa by a combined score of 5-1
  • All three Pens' games have seen at least six goals, while two of three Habs' contests had five or fewer

Here are my best bets for tonight's contest with puck drop set for 7:30 p.m. ET from Bell Centre in Montreal.

Penguins vs. Canadiens prediction

Odds via our best NHL betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale.

My best bet: Under 5.5 goals ⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: +125 via Betway | Implied probability: 44.44%

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Montembeault has started the season like a Vezina Trophy odds front-runner, and I have no intention of backing a foray of goals while he's playing with such extreme confidence. The 27-year-old leads the league with 6.6 goals saved above expected.

No prizes are handed out for guessing who is second on the goals-saved-above-expected list. Yes, it's last season's reigning Vezina winner, Connor Hellebuyck. That's some pretty good company to keep, even if it's after just two games. 

Meanwhile, Tristan Jarry is the confirmed starter for the visiting Pens.

While he allowed six goals against the New York Rangers in his first start, he wasn't as bad as that tally suggests. He finished with 0.57 goals saved above expected, highlighting how often the collective left him out to dry.

Jarry has fared well against the Canadiens, posting a 2.50 GAA and .913 SV% in nine appearances (6-1-1). 

Pens' offense mired in inconsistency 

Pittsburgh's offense scored two goals in its two losses and netted six in its only win. That six-goal explosion against the Red Wings in Detroit was more due to Ville Husso's subpar goaltending than the Penguins' offensive display.

Husso finished with -2.76 goals saved above expected, and the Pens' offense mustered only 3.22 expected goals. It had just 1.78 expected goals in Toronto and 3.26 against the Rangers.

With their offensive woes and the elite goaltending on the other side, we're backing the Under with a $10 winning bet at Betway profiting $12.50. 

Penguins vs. Canadiens player prop bet

NHL picks made Monday; odds subject to change.

Cole Caufield prop bet: Anytime goal ⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: +140 via Betway | Implied probability: 41.67%

Cole Caufield has four goals in three games, scoring two against the Ottawa Senators on Saturday while adding one against the Maple Leafs and Boston Bruins. He has 10 shots in the first three games.

While scoring on 40% of his shots is obviously unsustainable, he's popping up in the right spot and has been dangerous on the power play. A winning $10 bet will profit $14. 

Penguins vs. Canadiens live odds & info

  • When: Monday, Oct. 14
  • Puck drop: 7:30 p.m. ET
  • Where: Bell Centre (Montreal, Quebec)
  • How to watch: Prime Video
  • Favorite: Penguins (-135 via Betway)

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Written By:
Gary Pearson
Gary Pearson has written professionally since 2010, focusing on sports betting since 2014. Before entering the sports betting space, he contributed to the Canadian Press, FanSided, the Hockey Writers, the Calgary Herald, and other publications. His work has also been featured in Sports Illustrated and Bleacher Report. Gary, who consumes sports like a blue whale devours plankton, has a penchant for writing predictions and analyses across several sports, including hockey, soccer, football, tennis, and more. He bets regularly, preferring single-game picks, props, and live betting. While there isn't a sport he has yet to dabble in, Gary prefers betting on soccer, hockey, and football. He studied at various post-secondary institutions, including the University of Calgary, SAIT Polytechnic, and Griffith University, located in Brisbane, Australia. Gary has a marketing degree and completed his bachelor's degree in journalism at Griffith University. He feels strongly that life experience is as essential as post-secondary education, helping formulate more accurate predictions and analyses. Gary believes that competing at a high level of amateur sports during his formative years helped him better understand an athlete's psyche and the nuances and complexities of a team's dynamic, both on and off the playing surface. He feels that knowledge is immeasurably important when offering his analytical expertise. He has lived on five continents and currently resides in Canada.