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Best NHL Prop Picks, Predictions for Thursday's Games

Scott Cullen

Last Updated: March 9, 2023 5:18 PM EST • 3 min 31 sec read.

We have 11 games on Thursday's NHL schedule, which means plenty of value options in the player prop market. Scott Cullen shares four of his favorite NHL player props for Thursday's games using the latest NHL odds. 

I have already picked anytime goals on Thursday for Jack Quinn (in NHL Best Bets) and David Pastrnak (as my Oilers vs. Bruins pick), so these prop picks will focus on shots and points.

New Jersey Devils center Jack Hughes is one of the premier shot generators in the league and Anders Lee is a strong net-front presence for the New York Islanders. Both have potentially favorable matchups for shots on goal.

I'm also looking at new Boston Bruins defenseman Dmitry Orlov as well as veteran Seattle Kraken winger Jordan Eberle as potential point producers.

Here are our NHL prop picks for Thursday (odds via , , , , and ).

Check out Thursday's NHL Best Bets!

Thursday's NHL player prop picks

  • Jack Hughes Over 3.5 shots on goal (-140 via DraftKings)
  • Anders Lee Over 2.5 shots on goal (-114 via FanDuel)
  • Dmitry Orlov Over 0.5 points (+101 via Caesars)
  • Jordan Eberle Over 0.5 points (-121 via Caesars)

Check out our parlay calculator here!

NHL Player Props

Jack Hughes Over 3.5 shots on goal vs. Capitals (-140) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

One of the premier shot generators in the league, Hughes has averaged 4.61 shots on goal per game away from the Prudential Center. He has registered at least four shots on goal in 17 of 28 road games and faces a depleted Washington Capitals defense Thursday.

The Capitals rank eighth with just 28.4 shots allowed per 60 minutes, but trades and injuries have gutted their blue line.

Their scoring leader on defense, Eric Gustafsson, was dealt to Toronto just prior to the trade deadline, while dependable D-man Dmitry Orlov was shipped to Boston (more on him later). Nick Jensen (undisclosed) and John Carlson (face) are out Thursday night while Martin Fehervary (lower body) is a game-time decision.

Aside from newly acquired Rasmus Sandin and Trevor van Riemsdyk at the top of the depth chart, there really isn't much here – and this group should struggle to contain Hughes. As a result, I would price him at closer to -205 to go over this shot total – hence my five-star rating.

DraftKings offers the best price on the board for Hughes to go Over 3.5 shots, followed closely by BetMGM (-143) and FanDuel (-144). PointsBet is a pricier option at -155.

Check out our latest Rocket Richard Trophy odds!

Anders Lee Over 2.5 shots on goal vs. Penguins (-114) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

A physical force in front of the opposition goal, Lee has recorded 15 shots on goal in the past three games. He has also fared well on the road for most of the season, putting up 3+ shots in 18 of 32 games away from UBS Arena.

More importantly for this matchup, the Penguins are allowing 34.6 shots against per 60 minutes at PPG Paints Arena, which ranks 29th. It's also worth noting that Lee has 13 shots on goal in three games vs. Pittsburgh this season, with at least three in each contest.

As a result, I have Lee priced at -165 to cover this shot prop.

FanDuel has the most appealing number at our best sportsbooks. DraftKings and BetMGM are close behind, both at -115, while PointsBet sits at -125.

Dmitry Orlov Over 0.5 points vs. Oilers (+101) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Based on his full-season resume, it's difficult to get excited about Orlov, who has just 28 points in 48 games. He has, however, been a brand new player since arriving in Boston, erupting for nine points in five games with the Bruins (all coming in his last four outings).

Orlov is playing on Boston's first power-play unit, an opportunity that was hardly ever afforded to him in Washington. Facing an Oilers team that ranks 24th with 8.64 goals allowed per 60 minutes of four-on-five play, Orlov has a good chance to continue his offensive surge. 

The market doesn't seem sure what to do with Orlov, because his increased point production has come over such a small sample. Caesars comes in with the best price on an Orlov point, while BetMGM (-105), FanDuel (-108) and PointsBet (-109) lag behind. DraftKings (-125) isn't worth your time here.

Jordan Eberle Over 0.5 points vs. Senators (-121) ⭐⭐⭐

Eberle leads the second-year Kraken with 51 points overall and has been even hotter of late, with 13 points over his past 12 contests. He has also recorded at least one point in 17 of 31 games at Climate Pledge Arena (including each of his last six).

He matches up well against an Ottawa team that ranks 19th with a 3.33 goals against average away from the Canadian Tire Centre.

Caesars has the best price among our top sportsbooks, just ahead of DraftKings and PointsBet, both at -125. FanDuel (-126) and BetMGM (-128) are also competitive compared to my -140 price for an Eberle point, but Caesars offers the greatest edge here.

NHL player prop picks made 3/9/2023 at 4:30 p.m. ET

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Written By:
Scott Cullen
Scott Cullen is 520ccc.com's Sports Betting Analyst and is one of the most well-known sports betting writers on the web. He wrote about fantasy sports for TSN for many years, and he has also written for The Athletic, NHL.com, The Hockey News, Monkey Knife Fight, and McKeen's Hockey. Born in Kitchener, Ontario, Canada, Cullen was an Economics major at Wilfrid Laurier University in Waterloo, Ontario and played for the Laurier Golden Hawks hockey team.