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Toronto Maple Leafs left wing Matthew Knies is congratulated by right wing Mitch Marner and center Auston Matthews after his goal as we offer our Maple Leafs vs. Jets prediction.
Toronto Maple Leafs left wing Matthew Knies is congratulated by right wing Mitch Marner and center Auston Matthews after his goal. Photo by Winslow Townson via Imagn Images

The Winnipeg Jets have won 16 straight regular-season contests dating back to the end of last season entering Monday's Prime Video home tilt against the Toronto Maple Leafs (7:30 p.m. ET Canada Life Centre).

Winnipeg is 8-0-0 to start the season and is the only remaining unbeaten team. It faces a Toronto team with shorter Stanley Cup odds despite its 4-4-1 record. 

The Jets, who enter the game as favorites, have lost five straight to the Maple Leafs over the last two-and-a-half seasons.

Our Maple Leafs vs. Jets prediction, picks, and odds examine Toronto's chances of ruining Winnipeg's unblemished record while offering Auston Matthews and Kyle Connor prop bets.

Maple Leafs vs. Jets prediction

Odds via our best NHL betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale.

My best bet: Maple Leafs ML ⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: | Implied probability: 50%

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The Maple Leafs haven't been at their best for over a week after losing three straight and four of their last five. While they were better in Boston against the Bruins on Saturday, the club still didn't deserve to win the contest.

After tying the game with 1:17 remaining in the third period, Matthews coughed the puck up in overtime, leading to the Brad Marchand winner. 

It's not the number of mistakes the Maple Leafs have been making that's most disconcerting, but rather the timing and location of the errors. The Maple Leafs have logged the seventh-fewest giveaways (101). However, almost half of those (49.5%) have come in their own zone, which ranks 16th.

They're being punished more than most teams, with Marchand's overtime winner and Dylan Holloway's power-play goal in the previous game recent prime examples.

However, the Maple Leafs have won five straight against the Jets while outscoring them 20-7. The Buds usually put their best product forward for games against the team's Canadian rivals. 

Are the Jets due for a loss? 

While Winnipeg fully deserves its perfect record, there have been signs that a loss is coming. The Calgary Flames threw away their opportunity to beat the Jets on Saturday. Nikolaj Ehlers' attempted pass deflected in off of Rasmus Andersson for the opening goal.

The Jets followed that with an even more bizarre marker in the third, with Dylan Samberg's go-ahead goal hitting the glass behind Dustin Wolf before banking in off the netminder's back.

The Flames then took three penalties in the last 10 minutes, with Cole Perfetti making no mistake on the final power-play chance. 

They've also won three games in overtime while posting the 19th-ranked expected goals differential (-0.89). Something has to give, and the Maple Leafs match up well with the Jets. ;

Connor Hellebuyck will return to the crease after being rested against Calgary. The Vezina Trophy odds front-runner is on a 12-game run of allowing three goals or fewer. However, he lost his last three against the Maple Leafs, giving up 10 goals. 

A winning $10 bet will yield a $10 profit. 

Maple Leafs vs. Jets player prop bet

NHL picks made Monday; odds subject to change.

Auston Matthews prop bet: Anytime goal ⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: -120 via Betway | Implied probability: 54.55%

Like his team, Matthews often plays against the Jets while at the peak of his powers. He's registered four goals in his last three games and six in the previous six against Winnipeg.

The puck has also been going in for him more recently, with the Maple Leafs' sniper scoring late against Boston and netting four times in his last six contests. 

A winning $10 bet will yield an $8.33 profit. 

Kyle Connor prop bet: Anytime goal ⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: +130 via Betway | Implied probability: 43.48%

The Jets' leading goalscorer has tallied six goals in eight games, scoring in all but two thus far. Kyle Connor netted again in Calgary and has started the season with a 20.7 shooting percentage. His previous high was 16.2 during the forward's 2016-17 sophomore season.

While it's still early, and regression will probably come at some point, I'm going with the hot hand. Plus, the +130 odds are appealing. A winning $10 bet will profit $13. 

Maple Leafs vs. Jets live odds & info

  • When: Monday, Oct. 28
  • Puck drop: 7:30 p.m. ET
  • Where: Canada Life Centre (Winnipeg, Manitoba)
  • How to watch: Prime Video
  • Favorite: Jets (-120 via Betway)

Maple Leafs-Jets predictions made Monday at 9 a.m. ET.

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