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Maple Leafs vs. Bruins Prediction, Picks & Odds for Tonight's NHL Game

Gary Pearson

Last Updated: October 26, 2024 9:47 AM EDT • 2 min 64 sec read.

Boston Bruins left wing Brad Marchand skates with the puck against against the Nashville Predators as we offer our Maple Leafs vs. Bruins prediction.
Boston Bruins left wing Brad Marchand skates with the puck against against the Nashville Predators. Photo by Steve Roberts via Imagn Images

Bitter Atlantic Division rivals and two teams amid mini slumps meet Saturday night at TD Garden (7 p.m. ET on NHL Network) when the Toronto Maple Leafs and Boston Bruins clash. 

Neither team is trending in the right direction, with the Maple Leafs losing their last two by a combined 11-3 score and the Bruins falling 9-2 in their previous two.

The Maple Leafs, who've lost three of their last four, are still among the Stanley Cup odds favorites but enter the game as underdogs. 

  • The Bruins have won seven of the last eight regular-season games against the Buds
  • Including last season's first-round playoff meeting, 10 of the last 11 games and 12 of the previous 15 featured six or fewer goals
  • One goal has decided five of the last eight regular-season matchups, three of which went to overtime

Our Maple Leafs vs. Bruins prediction focuses on the chances of the Under trend continuing. 

Maple Leafs vs. Bruins prediction

Odds via our best NHL betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale.

My best bet: Under 6.5 goals ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: | Implied probability: 55.56%

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The first area both coaches will want to improve while trying to break out of a losing skid is their team's defensive mistakes.

The Maple Leafs started the season with a successful blueprint, allowing seven goals in their first three games. Three of those contests resulted in wins featuring six or fewer goals. 

Toronto has since lost three of four while allowing 17 goals. The Bruins have allowed 11 goals during their current three-game skid and 15 in the last four defeats.

Both teams must improve defensively to get back to playing successful hockey. I expect the Maple Leafs and Bruins to shore things up tonight in Boston, which fits the Under narrative the two teams have shared against each other recently. 

Maple Leafs vs. Bruins recent Under trend

Five of the last eight regular-season clashes between these teams and all seven during last season's first-round series ended with six goals or fewer. The starting goaltenders haven't yet been confirmed, but I'd be surprised if Craig Berube goes back to Joseph Woll.

Not only did the Maple Leafs play poorly in front of Woll against the St. Louis Blues on Thursday, but he needs time to work his way back after such a long layoff. Plus, Anthony Stolarz has been rock solid, allowing two goals or fewer in all five starts.

And then there's Jeremy Swayman, who is a shoo-in to get the nod for the Bruins.

Including last year's playoffs, Swayman hasn't allowed more than two goals in 10 straight games against the Buds. While he hasn't been near his best since signing an eight-year, $66-million deal, Swayman always puts on a show against Toronto. 

I also like the prospect of this game needing overtime, but the implied probability (25%) doesn't offer enough to pull the trigger.

A $10 bet will profit $8 if the game features six goals or fewer. 

Maple Leafs vs. Bruins player prop bet

NHL picks made Saturday; odds subject to change.

Brad Marchand prop bet: Over 0.5 assists ⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: +115 via Betway | Implied probability: 46.51%

Brad Marchand definitely isn't the player of old, mostly because he's getting, well, old.

But the perpetual thorn in the Maple Leafs' side usually saves his best for Toronto. He registered four assists in his last four games against the Buds and should remain on a line with David Pastrnak and Elias Lindholm. 

And as usual, he'll be lurking on the power play, hoping to help improve the Bruins' 25th-ranked unit. Marchand has tallied four assists in eight games and two in the last four. A winning $10 bet will profit $11.50. 

Maple Leafs vs. Bruins live odds & info

  • When: Saturday, Oct. 26
  • Puck drop: 7 p.m. ET
  • Where: TD Garden (Boston)
  • How to watch: Sportsnet, NHL Network
  • Favorite: Bruins (-115 via Betway)

Maple Leafs-Bruins predictions made Saturday at 9 a.m. ET.

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Written By:
Gary Pearson
Gary Pearson has written professionally since 2010, focusing on sports betting since 2014. Before entering the sports betting space, he contributed to the Canadian Press, FanSided, the Hockey Writers, the Calgary Herald, and other publications. His work has also been featured in Sports Illustrated and Bleacher Report. Gary, who consumes sports like a blue whale devours plankton, has a penchant for writing predictions and analyses across several sports, including hockey, soccer, football, tennis, and more. He bets regularly, preferring single-game picks, props, and live betting. While there isn't a sport he has yet to dabble in, Gary prefers betting on soccer, hockey, and football. He studied at various post-secondary institutions, including the University of Calgary, SAIT Polytechnic, and Griffith University, located in Brisbane, Australia. Gary has a marketing degree and completed his bachelor's degree in journalism at Griffith University. He feels strongly that life experience is as essential as post-secondary education, helping formulate more accurate predictions and analyses. Gary believes that competing at a high level of amateur sports during his formative years helped him better understand an athlete's psyche and the nuances and complexities of a team's dynamic, both on and off the playing surface. He feels that knowledge is immeasurably important when offering his analytical expertise. He has lived on five continents and currently resides in Canada.