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Lightning vs. Maple Leafs Prediction, Picks & Odds for Tonight's NHL Game

Gary Pearson

Last Updated: October 21, 2024 3:26 PM EDT • 3 min 40 sec read.

Toronto Maple Leafs center Auston Matthews celebrates with teammates after scoring a goal against the New York Rangers as we offer our Lightning vs. Maple Leafs prediction.
Toronto Maple Leafs center Auston Matthews celebrates with teammates after scoring a goal against the New York Rangers. Photo by Nick Turchiaro via Imagn Images

One of hockey's best rivalries returns to Toronto tonight when the Toronto Maple Leafs and Tampa Bay Lightning square off at Scotiabank Arena. 

Both teams enter Monday's contests after losses, with the Maple Leafs losing 4-1 at home to the New York Rangers and the Lightning falling 5-4 to the Ottawa Senators.

will start his fifth game of the season, and  is the probable starter for the visitors after his early departure from Monday's team skate.

The 3-2 Maple Leafs, who are among the Stanley Cup odds front-runners, enter the game as favorites. The Lightning have also started in electric fashion while winning three of four.

Our Lightning vs. Maple Leafs prediction analyzes whether to expect a flurry of goals while offering another Auston Matthews prop after hitting last time out. 

Lightning vs. Maple Leafs prediction

Odds via our best NHL betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale.

My best bet: Under 6.5 goals ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: | Implied probability: 52.38%

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Five of the last seven games between these two Atlantic Division adversaries have featured at least seven goals, but I'm backing the Under on Monday. 

The Over stands at -110, so there's a 52.38% chance of seeing at least seven goals, according to Betway. That's always a distinct possibility with a slew of uber-talented forwards on display. 

However, both teams have been prioritizing defensive play to start the season.

The Maple Leafs have allowed nine goals in five games if you don't count New York's two empty-netters on Saturday. Meanwhil,e the Lightning allowed four in their first three before conceding five in Ottawa. 

Toronto has logged the seventh-best expected goals against (9.37) and allows only 1.33 goals per 60 minutes, the fourth-fewest. Meanwhile, the Lightning allow the seventh-fewest goals against per 60 minutes (1.62) and have registered the third-best expected goals against (7.58). 

Plus, the Lightning play against a non-divisional opponent in the New Jersey Devils on Tuesday, so Vasilevskiy should get the nod tonight.

He endured a challenging day at the office in Ottawa on Saturday, but Vasilevskiy is usually superb after a defeat. He allowed five goals in the first three games of the season and has recorded a 2.52 goals against average and .901 save percentage.

Stolarz has posted a .937 save percentage and hasn't allowed more than two goals in his first four starts as a Maple Leaf.

Neither offense has peaked 

Aside from , who's again forcing himself into the early Hart Trophy odds conversation, no player on either team has found full flight. 

Kucherov has recorded nine points (seven goals and two assists) in four games, while no other player has tallied more than five.

The Lightning have posted the fourth-lowest expected goals (8.3) and are tied for the third-fewest high-danger shots (seven). The Lightning's seventh-best goals for above expected (2.7) is due to, well, Kucherov and the team's second-best shooting percentage (13.75).

The Maple Leafs' only eye-popping outburst of the season came against the Los Angeles Kings, when they scored six goals on 26 shots. Overall, they're tied for 17th in goals per game (three), 20th in expected goals (10.82), and the team shares the fifth-worst power play (12.5%) with Tampa Bay and the New York Islanders.

There's a chance the stars start shining on Monday, but I'm banking on another solid defensive display from two of the league's most stingy defensive teams. A winning $10 bet will profit $9.09. 

Lightning vs. Maple Leafs player prop bet

NHL picks made Monday; odds subject to change.

Auston Matthews prop bet: Over 4.5 shots ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: -110 via Betway | Implied probability: 52.38%

Matthews won't be stuck on two goals for long with how much he's firing the puck. I backed him to score against the Rangers on Saturday, and the superstar obliged with the team's only goal.

He should have notched more, as Matthews fired nine shots (26% of Toronto's total) on . Matthews has recorded at least five shots in three of five games and six of the last seven against Tampa Bay. He produced 12 shots the last time these teams met.

However, that was a definite outlier, as Matthews was shooting on sight in an attempt to score his 70th of the season. A winning $10 bet will pay $9.09. 

Anthony Stolarz prop bet: Under 25.5 saves ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: -115 via Betway | Implied probability: 53.49%

Stolarz has made fewer than 26 saves in two of four games and 26 in another. The Maple Leafs allow the fifth-fewest shots per game (27.2) and are usually even more stingy on home ice.

Plus, Tampa enters the game averaging just 26 shots per game, tied for the second-fewest. 

A $10 winning bet pays $8.70.

Lightning vs. Maple Leafs live odds & info

  • When: Monday, Oct. 21
  • Puck drop: 7:30 p.m. ET
  • Where: Scotiabank Arena (Toronto, Ontario)
  • How to watch: Prime Video
  • Favorite: Maple Leafs (+105 via Betway)

Lightning-Maple Leafs predictions made Monday at 2 p.m. ET.

Here are our best NHL betting sites:

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Written By:
Gary Pearson
Gary Pearson has written professionally since 2010, focusing on sports betting since 2014. Before entering the sports betting space, he contributed to the Canadian Press, FanSided, the Hockey Writers, the Calgary Herald, and other publications. His work has also been featured in Sports Illustrated and Bleacher Report. Gary, who consumes sports like a blue whale devours plankton, has a penchant for writing predictions and analyses across several sports, including hockey, soccer, football, tennis, and more. He bets regularly, preferring single-game picks, props, and live betting. While there isn't a sport he has yet to dabble in, Gary prefers betting on soccer, hockey, and football. He studied at various post-secondary institutions, including the University of Calgary, SAIT Polytechnic, and Griffith University, located in Brisbane, Australia. Gary has a marketing degree and completed his bachelor's degree in journalism at Griffith University. He feels strongly that life experience is as essential as post-secondary education, helping formulate more accurate predictions and analyses. Gary believes that competing at a high level of amateur sports during his formative years helped him better understand an athlete's psyche and the nuances and complexities of a team's dynamic, both on and off the playing surface. He feels that knowledge is immeasurably important when offering his analytical expertise. He has lived on five continents and currently resides in Canada.