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Islanders vs. Maple Leafs Prediction, Picks & Odds for Tonight's NHL Game

Gary Pearson

Last Updated: December 21, 2024 9:06 AM EST • 2 min 57 sec read.

Toronto Maple Leafs right wing Mitch Marner skates against the Dallas Stars as we offer our Islanders vs. Maple Leafs prediction.
Toronto Maple Leafs right wing Mitch Marner skates against the Dallas Stars. Photo by Jerome Miron via Imagn Images

The Toronto Maple Leafs are 4-2-1 in the second game of back-to-backs this season as they prepare to host the New York Islanders on Saturday at 7 p.m. ET (ESPN+/CBC) after beating the Buffalo Sabres 6-3 on Friday. 

Not only are the Maple Leafs solid after playing the night before, but they're also Stanley Cup odds front-runners and the third-best team on home ice, winning 14 of 18 at Scotiabank Arena.

And they'll be turning to Joseph Woll after Matt Murray played in Buffalo. The New York Islanders haven't played since Tuesday, when they lost 4-0 on the road to the Carolina Hurricanes.

That loss made it seven in the last eight away tilts, and our Islanders vs. Maple Leafs Prediction expects the contest to follow a similar script. 

Today's Islanders vs. Maple Leafs prediction

Odds via our best NHL betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale.

My best pick: Maple Leafs 3-way ML ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: | Implied probability: 54.55%

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The Islanders don't have an identity. I'd be surprised if they know what the word means. Though they enter Saturday's contest well-rested, the Islanders have the fifth-worst road points percentage since Nov. 15 (.313).

New York has lost two in a row in enemy rinks, allowing nine goals and scoring three. 

Despite losing seven of their last eight road games, the Islanders usually keep it close, losing three during that span in overtime or a shootout. Six of those seven defeats came by one goal, so I expect the Islanders, who also have the rest advantage, to make life difficult for Toronto.

However, the Maple Leafs required overtime only once in its 14 home wins.

Maple Leafs' home dominance 

No team has won more games on home ice than the Maple Leafs. Their 14 wins are one more than Carolina's and Dallas' 13.

Like the injured Anthony Stolarz, Saturday's likely starter, Joseph Woll, has been almost as good at the Scotiabank Arena. At home, Woll is 6-1-0 with a .936 save percentage and a 1.66 goals-against average (GAA). 

Only Stolarz (.937) and Dustin Wolf (.942) have a better home save percentage, and David Rittich (1.51) is the only netminder with a superior GAA for those with at least seven games.  

They allow the fewest goals per game at home (2.06), and the Islanders are tied with the Buffalo Sabres for the third-fewest road goals per game since Nov. 15. 

The Maple Leafs usually get up for home Hockey Night in Canada games, too, winning three of four. I'd lock the Under 6.5 goals in if the odds weren't sitting at a too-pricey -165. 

If Toronto wins in regulation, a winning $10 bet will profit $8.33. 

Islanders vs. Maple Leafs player prop pick

NHL picks made Saturday; odds subject to change.

Mitch Marner prop pick: Over 0.5 power-play points ⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: +150 via Betway | Implied probability: 40%

The Maple Leafs have scored a power-play goal in three of the last four games, and Marner notched an assist on two of three goals. He has a point on 17 of Toronto's 20 power-play goals, an 85% contribution rate. 

It's also a favorable matchup for the home team, who face the league's second-worst road penalty kill (66.7%) since Nov. 15. The Islanders don't take a lot of penalties, ranking first with just 5:24 per game.

That's the primary reason this is a three-star play. They've taken only six penalties in the last three games but allowed three power-play markers. Plus, the Maple Leafs have the sixth-best power play since Nov. 4 (26.7%). A winning $10 bet will profit $15. 

Islanders vs. Maple Leafs game info

  • When: Saturday, Dec. 21
  • Puck drop: 7 p.m. ET
  • Where: Scotiabank Arena (Toronto)
  • How to watch: ESPN+, CBC
  • Favorite: Maple Leafs (-180 via Betway)

Islanders vs. Maple Leafs injuries

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Written By:
Gary Pearson
Gary Pearson has written professionally since 2010, focusing on sports betting since 2014. Before entering the sports betting space, he contributed to the Canadian Press, FanSided, the Hockey Writers, the Calgary Herald, and other publications. His work has also been featured in Sports Illustrated and Bleacher Report. Gary, who consumes sports like a blue whale devours plankton, has a penchant for writing predictions and analyses across several sports, including hockey, soccer, football, tennis, and more. He bets regularly, preferring single-game picks, props, and live betting. While there isn't a sport he has yet to dabble in, Gary prefers betting on soccer, hockey, and football. He studied at various post-secondary institutions, including the University of Calgary, SAIT Polytechnic, and Griffith University, located in Brisbane, Australia. Gary has a marketing degree and completed his bachelor's degree in journalism at Griffith University. He feels strongly that life experience is as essential as post-secondary education, helping formulate more accurate predictions and analyses. Gary believes that competing at a high level of amateur sports during his formative years helped him better understand an athlete's psyche and the nuances and complexities of a team's dynamic, both on and off the playing surface. He feels that knowledge is immeasurably important when offering his analytical expertise. He has lived on five continents and currently resides in Canada.