NHL Best Bets, Odds Today: Matchups, Picks, Predictions for Thursday

Thursday brings a massive 13-game schedule to the National Hockey League, including a little bit of everything from what appear to be closely contested battles to expected mismatches. Read on as we offer up our best bets and top NHL picks.

A large slate of NHL games brings variety to the ice on Thursday. The New Jersey Devils will try to extend a 10-game winning streak. The top two teams in the league standings, the Boston Bruins and Vegas Golden Knights, are also heavy favorites on home ice.

Here are our best bets for Thursday’s NHL slate (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook, FanDuel Sportsbook, Caesars Sportsbook, BetMGM, and PointsBet; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Check out our top NHL shot-prop picks for Thursday.

Thursday’s NHL Schedule and Odds

(odds via Caesars)

• Calgary Flames (+100) vs. Tampa Bay Lightning (-120)
• Dallas Stars (+150) vs. Florida Panthers (-178)
• Philadelphia Flyers (+278) vs. Boston Bruins (-355)
• Montreal Canadiens (-105) vs. Columbus Blue Jackets (-115)
• Colorado Avalanche (+105) vs. Carolina Hurricanes (-125)
• New Jersey Devils (+118) vs. Toronto Maple Leafs (-140)
• Washington Capitals (-105) vs. St. Louis Blues (-115)
• New York Islanders (-105) vs. Nashville Predators (-115)
• Pittsburgh Penguins (-110) vs. Minnesota Wild (-110)
• Anaheim Ducks (+180) vs. Winnipeg Jets (-220)
• Arizona Coyotes (+320) vs. Vegas Golden Knights (-420)
• New York Rangers (-135) vs. Seattle Kraken (+115)
• Detroit Red Wings (+105) vs. San Jose Sharks (-125)

Thursday’s NHL Best Bets

• Moneyline: Penguins (-108 via FanDuel)
• Spread: Bruins -1.5 (-120 via DraftKings)
• Total: Islanders-Predators Under 6 (-110 via BetMGM)
• Upset: Devils (+125 via PointsBet)
• Prop bet: Emil Bemstrom Over 0.5 goals (+340 via FanDuel)

Thursday’s NHL Top Picks

Moneyline: Penguins (-108) ★★★★

It is not easy to side with a team that has two wins in its past 11 games, but the Pittsburgh Penguins are controlling 55.2% of score-and-venue-adjusted expected goals at five-on-five, which ranks sixth in the NHL.

The Minnesota Wild have a 7-7-2 record after winning two of their past six games. That is a mediocre record and is backed by a team getting 50.8% of score-and-venue-adjusted expected goals during five-on-five play. The greater concern for the Wild, though, is that starting goaltender Marc-Andre Fleury is out, so Filip Gustavsson will get the start against Pittsburgh.

Gustavsson was a second-round pick of the Penguins in 2016. While he has a .947 save percentage in his past three starts, Gustavsson has a .906 save percentage in 32 career NHL games.

The Penguins are due for better results and catching Minnesota’s backup goaltender makes this a good opportunity at reasonable odds.

Spread: Bruins -1.5 (-120) ★★★★★

Compiling a 14-2 record to start the season, the Bruins have been dominant. Of those 14 wins, 11 have been by a margin of at least two goals. The Bruins' lineup has also been recently bolstered by the return of Charlie McAvoy, the team’s No. 1 defenseman, who missed the first month of the season while recovering from shoulder surgery.

The Philadelphia Flyers have surprised with a 7-6-3 record this season, thanks largely to goaltender Carter Hart, who has a .929 save percentage. The Flyers are managing just 42.6% of five-on-five score-and-venue-adjusted expected goals, which ranks 29th. Five of Philadelphia’s six regulation losses were by a margin of more than one goal.

This game appears to be a massive mismatch, and even Hart is likely not going to be enough to keep the Flyers close.

Total: Islanders-Predators Under 6 (-110) ★★★★

In eight road games this season, the New York Islanders reached a total of seven or more goals four times. They are averaging a total of 6.01 goals per 60 minutes on the road.

The reason for steering toward the under, though, is that the Nashville Predators are one of the lowest-scoring teams in the league. The Preds combined with their opponent to total five or fewer goals in seven of nine home games and are averaging a total of 4.58 goals per 60 minutes on home ice.

Most of the top sportsbooks have the Under listed at -120, but BetMGM is at -110 on both the Over and Under.

Upset: Devils (+125) ★★★★

This is not a case of the Toronto Maple Leafs being easy pickings. The Leafs have one regulation loss in their past eight games and are pulling 53.6% of five-on-five score-and-venue-adjusted expected goals. This is a quality team that has rebounded from a slow start.

On the other hand, the Devils have won 10 straight games and have earned a league-best 63.6% of five-on-five score-and-venue-adjusted expected goals.

It is possible that this is where the Devils’ winning streak ends but the hot hand remains too tempting to ignore at plus money.

Prop bet: Bemstrom Over 0.5 goals (+340) ★★★★

With Patrik Laine out of the lineup for the Columbus Blue Jackets, Emil Bemstrom has landed a spot on the top line and first power play unit. The 23-year-old winger had seven goals in 10 AHL games before getting called up and has one goal and 12 shots on goal through three games with Columbus.

Bemstrom is going against a Montreal Canadiens team that is allowing 3.21 goals against per 60 minutes, which ranks 21st. The Canadiens are surrendering 3.71 expected goals against per 60 minutes in all situations, which ranks 31st. That is a vulnerable defensive team. 

A shooter who gets to play alongside Johnny Gaudreau going against a subpar defensive team is a good value play. Try the +340 odds via FanDuel. That's a notably better price than other top sportsbooks, which range between +280 and +300.

Where to Bet on NHL Picks

Here are our top-rated sportsbooks:

• FanDuel Sportsbook
• Caesars Sportsbook
• DraftKings Sportsbook
• PointsBet
• BetMGM

NHL odds and best bets from 11/17/2022 at 11:40 a.m. ET.