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Flames vs. Oilers Prediction, Picks & Odds for Tonight's NHL Game

Gary Pearson

Last Updated: October 13, 2024 10:30 AM EDT • 3 min 17 sec read.

Edmonton Oilers forward Connor McDavid looks to make a pass as we offer our Flames vs. Oilers prediction.
Edmonton Oilers forward Connor McDavid looks to make a pass. Photo by Perry Nelson via Imagn Images

If you can believe it, the Edmonton Oilers have gotten off to a worse start than last season, when they were outscored 12-4 after two games. They have been outscored 11-2, including a 5-2 setback at home on Saturday to the Chicago Blackhawks.

That may have Edmontonians feeling a vomit-inducing case of déjà vu. 

While nobody will be pressing the panic button in Alberta's capital after two games, the Stanley Cup odds favorites are suffering from what appears to be a head-ringing Stanley Cup Final hangover. 

Meanwhile, their southern neighbors have won both games to open the campaign. The Calgary Flames are 2-0 after their improbable late comeback victory over the Vancouver Canucks and home-opening 6-3 win over Philadelphia on Saturday. 

Our Flames vs. Oilers prediction looks at whether the goals will continue to pour freely in Edmonton on Sunday while looking at a Connor McDavid prop. 

Flames vs. Oilers prediction

Odds via our best NHL betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale.

My best bet: Over 6.5 goals ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: | Implied probability: 54.55%

Predicting which Oilers team shows up on Sunday is more challenging than accurately guessing the exact temperature in Edmonton on a day three weeks from now.

That, plus the fact that the Oilers are outrageous -275 straight-up favorites, is why I'm veering away from the moneyline. 

There is value in the Flames' +1.5 puck line, which stands at -105. However, based on recent games and last season's head-to-head trend, I'm banking on seeing at least seven goals. 

Ghastly goaltending resurfaces in Edmonton 

Again, we're only two games in, so I'll leave the irrational overreactions to my two-year-old son. While Flames fans will liken and 's first start to a double act most comedians would be proud of, nobody is laughing in Edmonton.

Skinner allowed five goals on 13 shots (.615 save percentage) in the opener against the Winnipeg Jets and was yanked after finishing with a ghastly minus-3.52 goals saved below expected. Pickard played against the Blackhawks and didn't fare any better, allowing five goals on 20 shots (.750 save percentage). 

The Oilers' goaltending tandem has allowed 11 goals on 40 shots for a combined .725 save percentage. 

To put things into context, the Oilers lead the league in expected goals percentage (70.04) and are third in expected goals differential (3.05).

Yet, their minus-8.05 goals differential above expected is the league's worst. 

Questions about Calgary's goaltending, too

 should get the nod after played on Saturday against Philadelphia. In the opener against Vancouver, Vladar allowed five goals on 24 shots (.792 save percentage), finishing with minus-2.4 goals saved above expected. 

While the 27-year-old netminder has always represented a capable backup, he's never been able to ascend to the status of a No. 1. And he probably won't anytime soon with the Flames' focus on seeing Wolf become the alpha.

Also, the Flames are expected to be one of the worst defensive teams this season, and their first two games featured many reasons why. They've allowed eight goals and at one point against the Flyers were being outshot 28-10.  

When will Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl let loose?

Nine Flames players have more points than and . No matter how early, that stat is harder to digest than a whole pack of Calgary Stampede mini donuts.

That could prove troublesome for the Flames as it's only a matter of time before the dynamic duo lets loose, another solid reason to back the Over. Finally, two of the last three meetings between these provincial rivals had at least seven goals. A $10 winning bet will profit $8.33.

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Flames vs. Oilers player prop bet

NHL picks made Sunday; odds subject to change.

Connor McDavid prop bet: Over 3.5 shots ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: +125 via Betway | Implied probability: 44.44%

I'm going back to the well with McDavid, who hasn't hit the Over on this prop yet. However, he had three shots against the Blackhawks after failing to register one against the Winnipeg Jets.

Plus, he should be able to find space against an inferior Flames defense in the second game of a back-to-back. 

Flames vs. Oilers live odds & info

  • When: Sunday, Oct. 13
  • Puck drop: 8 p.m. ET
  • Where: Rogers Place (Edmonton, Alberta)
  • How to watch: Sportsnet, ESPN+
  • Favorite: Oilers -275 via Betway

Flames-Oilers predictions made Sunday at 9 a.m. ET.

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Written By:
Gary Pearson
Gary Pearson has written professionally since 2010, focusing on sports betting since 2014. Before entering the sports betting space, he contributed to the Canadian Press, FanSided, the Hockey Writers, the Calgary Herald, and other publications. His work has also been featured in Sports Illustrated and Bleacher Report. Gary, who consumes sports like a blue whale devours plankton, has a penchant for writing predictions and analyses across several sports, including hockey, soccer, football, tennis, and more. He bets regularly, preferring single-game picks, props, and live betting. While there isn't a sport he has yet to dabble in, Gary prefers betting on soccer, hockey, and football. He studied at various post-secondary institutions, including the University of Calgary, SAIT Polytechnic, and Griffith University, located in Brisbane, Australia. Gary has a marketing degree and completed his bachelor's degree in journalism at Griffith University. He feels strongly that life experience is as essential as post-secondary education, helping formulate more accurate predictions and analyses. Gary believes that competing at a high level of amateur sports during his formative years helped him better understand an athlete's psyche and the nuances and complexities of a team's dynamic, both on and off the playing surface. He feels that knowledge is immeasurably important when offering his analytical expertise. He has lived on five continents and currently resides in Canada.