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Capitals vs. Maple Leafs Prediction, Picks & Odds for Tonight's NHL Game

Gary Pearson

Last Updated: December 28, 2024 8:47 AM EST • 2 min 51 sec read.

Toronto Maple Leafs right wing Mitch Marner celebrates after scoring against the Detroit Red Wings as we offer our Capitals vs. Maple Leafs prediction.
Toronto Maple Leafs right wing Mitch Marner celebrates after scoring against the Detroit Red Wings. Photo by Rick Osentoski via Imagn Images

After their Christmas break, the Washington Capitals are back on the ice, facing the Toronto Maple Leafs at the Scotiabank Arena (7 p.m. ET, NHL Network). 

There is a solid chance we'll see Alexander Ovechkin for the first time since he fractured his fibula against Utah on Nov. 18, but we're still awaiting confirmation on whether the Great 8 will suit up. 

The Maple Leafs played on Friday, winning comfortably in Detroit 5-2. Mitch Marner scored his first hat trick of the season, again stepping up in Auston Matthews' absence. 

Matthews won't play against the Caps due to his lingering upper-body injury, so Marner will have to be at his superstar best again for the Maple Leafs, who are among the Stanley Cup odds favorites.

Our Capitals vs. Maple Leafs prediction focuses on Marner and Capitals' left-winger Alexei Protas.

Today's Capitals vs. Maple Leafs prediction

Odds via our best NHL betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale.

My best pick: Alexei Protas Over 1.5 shots ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: | Implied probability: 58.33%

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I'm avoiding Over/Under, and moneyline plays for various reasons. First, the Maple Leafs looked excellent against Detroit on Friday, with Joseph Woll stopping 23 of 25 shots.

I actually think playing on back-to-back nights after the Christmas break will benefit, even suit, the Maple Leafs as they'll be warmed up and should be raring to go for this behemoth Hockey Night in Canada tilt.

They'll still be fresh after enjoying a four-day reprieve, while the Caps might have some rust to work through. 

However, I can't see Woll playing on consecutive nights, and I don't trust probable starter Matt Murray enough. Also, if Ovechkin does play, the Capitals might feel the buoying effect of his return, which could add another unpredictable element. 

Protas productive against the Maple Leafs 

So, I'm turning to Protas to fire at least two shots on goal. While a small sample size, Protas has been productive against the Leafs this season. In the first meeting, he had two points (a goal and an assist) and registered four shots on Woll. In the second contest, he had a goal and three shots.

Protas has hit the Over on this prop in nine of the last 11 games and three of the previous four. He's also projected to be on the same line as Ovechkin if the Caps' captain plays. 

While the price is a bit steep, I love everything else about this pick. There might even be a chance, after playing last night, that Toronto will be slightly sluggish to start, providing Protas the opportunity to pounce early. A winning $10 bet will profit $7.14. 

Capitals vs. Maple Leafs player prop pick

NHL picks made Saturday; odds subject to change.

Mitch Marner prop pick: Over 0.5 assists ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: -138 via Betway | Implied probability: 57.98%

Marner has shown leadership characteristics many probably didn't think he possessed in Matthews' absence. He put the team on his back again on Friday and will probably have to do the same on Saturday. 

I expect him to return to what he does best, though: setting up his teammates.

Marner had at least one assist in six straight before Friday's outing in Detroit and registered eight in nine games during Matthews' first injury hiatus. He's on a seven-game point streak and has the third-most helpers in the league, 36 in as many games. 

A winning $10 wager will profit $7.25. 

Capitals vs. Maple Leafs live odds & info

  • When: Saturday, Dec. 28
  • Puck drop: 7 p.m. ET
  • Where: Scotiabank Arena (Toronto)
  • How to watch: Sportsnet, NHL Network
  • Favorite: Maple Leafs (-115 via Betway)

Capitals vs. Maple Leafs injuries

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Written By:
Gary Pearson
Gary Pearson has written professionally since 2010, focusing on sports betting since 2014. Before entering the sports betting space, he contributed to the Canadian Press, FanSided, the Hockey Writers, the Calgary Herald, and other publications. His work has also been featured in Sports Illustrated and Bleacher Report. Gary, who consumes sports like a blue whale devours plankton, has a penchant for writing predictions and analyses across several sports, including hockey, soccer, football, tennis, and more. He bets regularly, preferring single-game picks, props, and live betting. While there isn't a sport he has yet to dabble in, Gary prefers betting on soccer, hockey, and football. He studied at various post-secondary institutions, including the University of Calgary, SAIT Polytechnic, and Griffith University, located in Brisbane, Australia. Gary has a marketing degree and completed his bachelor's degree in journalism at Griffith University. He feels strongly that life experience is as essential as post-secondary education, helping formulate more accurate predictions and analyses. Gary believes that competing at a high level of amateur sports during his formative years helped him better understand an athlete's psyche and the nuances and complexities of a team's dynamic, both on and off the playing surface. He feels that knowledge is immeasurably important when offering his analytical expertise. He has lived on five continents and currently resides in Canada.