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Toronto Maple Leafs center Auston Matthews awaits the faceoff as we offer our Blues vs. Maple Leafs prediction.
Toronto Maple Leafs center Auston Matthews awaits the faceoff. Photo by Aaron Doster via Imagn Images

The Toronto Maple Leafs return home with their tail between their legs after a hideous 6-2 loss in Columbus, easily the worst display since Craig Berube became their head coach. 

While the defeat was as frightening as clowns to toddlers, the 60-minute lesson in humility will serve the Maple Leafs well on Thursday when they host the St. Louis Blues (7 p.m. start on ESPN+).

Speaking of frightening, I can only imagine how Berube's post-game address manifested. 

Although the teams sit at identical 4-3-0 records, the Maple Leafs, who are among the Stanley Cup odds front-runners, are prohibitive favorites to get the win. 

Our Blues vs. Maple Leafs prediction analyzes Toronto's chances of securing another multi-goal victory while honing in on an player prop. 

Blues vs. Maple Leafs prediction

Odds via our best NHL betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale.

My best bet: Maple Leafs -1.5 ⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: | Implied probability: 59.18%

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You'd think a giant meteor hit smack dab in downtown Toronto with all the doom and gloom headlines. Yes, an inferior Blue Jackets team humiliated the Maple Leafs. But as much as some think those outliers shouldn't happen, that's the nature of an 82-game schedule. 

I'm giving the Buds the benefit of the doubt and calling it a lone letdown, not a catastrophic event.

Toronto's four wins came in dominant fashion

The Maple Leafs' four wins have all been of the multi-goal variety. While they needed an empty netter against the Pittsburgh Penguins to cover the -1.5 puck line, eight Toronto players earned more expected goals than any on the opposition. 

The team's other three victories came by 4-2, 6-2, and 5-2 margins. Three of their four wins have come at the Scotiabank Arena, with the Maple Leafs riding hot goaltending and opportunistic scoring while playing a sound defensive system. 

Their only home loss came against arguably the league's second-hottest team, the New York Rangers. That 4-1 defeat was more due to Igor Shesterkin's Vezina-like performance than any Toronto deficiencies. 

Joseph Woll gets his first start

After a solid winning debut,  crashed back down to earth in Columbus, allowing six goals on 38 shots and finishing with -2.78 goals saved above expected.

Nobody will scapegoat Hildeby for the loss though, as the collective deserves an equal share of the blame. 

It has been confirmed that  will get his first start of the season tonight. While I'm slightly concerned about rustiness being a factor, the Maple Leafs should increase their defensive focus knowing their netminder needs some time to assimilate. 

Blues are average across the board

If you look up the word average, don't be surprised to see the 2024-25 St. Louis Blues. Their stats across the board are middling, like a student who receives a C in every class. 

However,  has started poorly, losing three of four starts with a 3.04 GAA and a .891 save percentage. But  was outstanding in his three starts, winning each one with a .932 save percentage. 

Binnington is the confirmed starter, which should bode well for the home team. 

There are a few outliers. The Blues have posted the 10th-most expected goals against and the sixth-worst penalty kill (70.6%). The Maple Leafs will look to exploit the latter. ;

Not only is it an idyll bounce-back opportunity, but it represents Berube's first game against the team he led to the 2019 Stanley Cup. If that's not enough motivation for his players, I'm not sure what is. 

I'd be more comfortable backing the Maple Leafs to win in regulation, but the -145 odds don't offer enough value through our best NHL betting sites. Instead, I'm going with Toronto to record a two-plus goal win. A winning $10 bet will profit $10. 

Blues vs. Maple Leafs player prop bet

NHL picks made Thursday; odds subject to change.

Auston Matthews prop bet: Over 0.5 power play points ⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: +175 via Betway | Implied probability: 36.36%

The Maple Leafs have recorded just three goals on 23 power plays. At 13.3%, that's the 26th-ranked unit. 

Matthews notched a point on all three Toronto power-play goals, and I like the chances for positive regression from the home team with the man advantage, especially against the sixth-worst penalty kill. 

A winning $10 bet will profit $17.50. 

Blues vs. Maple Leafs live odds & info

  • When: Thursday, Oct. 24
  • Puck drop: 7 p.m. ET
  • Where: Scotiabank Arena (Toronto)
  • How to watch: ESPN+
  • Favorite: Maple Leafs (-236 via Betway)

Blues-Maple Leafs predictions made Oct. 24 at 9 a.m. ET.

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