NFL Week 7 Early Picks & Predictions: Why I Like the Vikings, Bengals, Texans

If you bet on the favorite in Week 6, you probably won some money in a relatively upset-free weekend for NFL bettors.

We had an early sense of that when we gave out an all-chalk appetizer to open last week's betting menu. Sure enough, we cashed two of our first three picks as we wait on the Monday Night Football odds favorites later tonight.

We're targeting two more favorites in our NFL Week 7 early picks and predictions, but we're taking the points in a potential Super Bowl odds preview between two of the best young teams in football.

Here are my favorite NFL picks and predictions based on the early NFL Week 7 odds:

NFL Week 7 early picks & predictions

NFL odds as of Monday and subject to change. Track the NFL scores for the latest line movement and matchup info.

• Vikings -1.5 vs. Lions
• Bengals -4.5 at Browns
• Texans +3 at Packers

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Vikings -1.5 vs. Lions

Best odds: 

You know that meme where the smartest and dumbest people come to the same conclusion? (If not, .)

That's how I feel about betting on Minnesota as a short home favorite, which could be a popular play this week after this line jumped as much as a full point in the last 24 hours at DraftKings.

Yes, I know the Lions were lauded as the better team coming into the year and will boast shorter title odds entering this matchup. And yes, I saw what they did on Sunday against the Cowboys to spoil Jerry Jones' 82nd birthday party.

But I've also seen what the Vikings have done across the entire season, leading the NFL in net EPA/play (0.21) and defensive EPA/play (-0.22) with a reborn Sam Darnold leading the offense in the best situation of his meandering career.

By the time this game kicks off, Minnesota defensive coordinator Brian Flores will have enjoyed two weeks to scheme up ways to frustrate Jared Goff - who ranks 23rd in PFF passing grade under duress out of 32 qualified QBs.

Meanwhile, Lions defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn has one week to help his unit overcome the loss of Aidan Hutchinson, who was the NFL Defensive Player of the Year odds favorite before breaking his tibia in Dallas.

It all adds up to a clear and obvious play for me on the home favorites, who are already dealing at -2 at multiple shops. Sometimes, it's okay to bet with the crowd.

Bengals -4.5 at Browns

Best odds: 

We all know the situation in Cleveland is an abject disaster, but I don't think enough has been made about how truly depressing things have gotten on the field.

The Browns have converted 19.2% of their third-down attempts this year. They're averaging 5.2 yards per throw and 269.8 total yards per game, and they've been sacked 31 times. All of those marks are the worst in the NFL.

Cleveland hasn't scored more than 18 points in a game this season, and it's scored once in its last 29 drives. At one point during Sunday's loss in Philadelphia, it hadn't converted a third down in 25 consecutive tries.

Deshaun Watson is playing historically bad football that has put him on with JaMarcus Russell, Josh Rosen, and Akili Smith. (Even if he threw the ball directly at Kevin Stefanski's head every snap, he'd somehow still be the starter the following week.)

With a defense that no longer sweeps the advanced stats leaderboard as it did last year, that wretched offensive play has led to a 1-5 start for the Browns that surely has this entire coaching staff browsing LinkedIn between team meetings.

Meanwhile, the Bengals have roared back to life over the last month. They ranked second in scoring offense (32.5 PPG) from Week 2 through Week 5 before flexing their defensive might in Sunday's 17-10 road win against the Giants.

Before you laugh that away, consider that New York leads the league in sacks (26) and Cincinnati's offensive line has been a sore spot all season. For the defense to respond with its best showing all year - on the road, no less - felt like a real "earn your stripes" moment for a beleaguered group.

This matchup, to me, is more akin to a Bengal tiger playing with its food. Burrow is plenty familiar with this defense, which has taken a serious step back from the "best since the merger" praise that seemed to follow this group like a shadow much of last season.

My only real worry here is a lackadaisical fourth quarter from Cincinnati, but this number is still too tasty for me to ignore.

Texans +3 at Packers

Best odds: 

Look, I understand the intoxicating feeling of watching Jordan Love throw the football. If the NFL held a redraft tomorrow, he might be a top-five pick, and I'd fully endorse it.

But we knew all of that a week ago, when Love was still priced at +4000 by the NFL MVP odds. Then the market fell in love with him all over again after an aerial display against Arizona in his third week back from injury.

Love is now dealing as short as +1800 across our best sportsbooks to win MVP, even though he ranks 17th in ESPN's QBR (56.8) and has a worse completion rate (58.9%) than Deshaun Watson (61.3%). (Chew on that one for a minute.)

We're seeing that love affair in the weekly markets, too, as this line has moved toward Green Bay since opening between -1.5 and -2.5 last week.

Am I the only one who feels like Love throwing for four scores against the Cardinals is a bit like dunking on an eight-foot hoop? I appreciate the effort, but it doesn't really change my opinion of how he'll fare against a Texans defense allowing the lowest completion rate (53.3%) and fourth-fewest yards per attempt (6.2).

It also feels like the market is ignoring the underlying issues with this Packers defense, which has relied on an unsustainable turnover rate to mask a non-existent pass rush. If Green Bay can't get to C.J. Stroud - who has fewer interceptions through six starts (four) than Love has through four (six) - he'll make Sunday's three-TD performance in New England look like an opening act.

I do think this will be a compelling test for the Texans on the road, but it's one they should pass given how Stroud has aced his early sophomore assignments en route to a 5-1 record. I love Houston's moneyline price of +135 at Caesars, but it's hard not to take the field goal while it's available.

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