NFL Week 6 Player Prop Picks & Odds: Burrow, Jackson Face Juicy Matchups

We've been on a roll with our NFL player props after a 3-1 mark last week - our fourth consecutive week with a winning record as we improved to 14-9 on the season.

Our best NFL Week 6 player prop picks begin with a Jaguars vs. Bears prediction for their matchup in London, which kicks off at 9:30 a.m. ET. I have my eyes on an explosive young back with home-run potential overseas.

I'm also targeting two contenders by the NFL MVP odds to have big games on Sunday after they lit up the scoreboard in their head-to-head matchup last week - one that shook up the Super Bowl odds entering NFL Week 6.

Here's a look at my favorite player props this week as part of our NFL Week 6 predictions. 

NFL player prop picks for Week 6

NFL odds as of Sunday and subject to change. Track the NFL scores for the latest line movement and matchup info.

• Tank Bigsby Over 13.5 yards longest rush () vs. Bears ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
• Anthony Richardson Under 225.5 passing + rushing yards () at Titans ⭐⭐⭐⭐
• Lamar Jackson Over 1.5 passing TDs (-125 via FanDuel) vs. Commanders ⭐⭐⭐⭐
• Quentin Johnston Under 29.5 receiving yards () vs. Broncos ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
• Joe Burrow Over 35.5 pass attempts (+108 via FanDuel) at Giants ⭐⭐⭐⭐

NFL picks made Sunday; odds subject to change. Our NEW NFL player prop odds tool can help you find the best odds on any market across legal sportsbooks in your area!

Best player prop bets this week

Tank Bigsby Over 13.5 yards longest rush (-110) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

Jaguars head coach Doug Pederson has publicly assured Travis Etienne that he's the starting back, though Bigsby has been cutting into his workload over the last two weeks and making every touch count.

The second-year back out of Auburn has seen double-digit snaps in three games this season, and he's run for at least 70 yards in all of them. He's also converted at least one rush for 25-plus yards in all three of those contests.

That includes an impressive 58-yard scamper in Week 4 and a 65-yard run last week for one of his two touchdowns. It's why our Sean Tomlinson backs Bigsby with his anytime touchdown scorer parlay pick:

Through five weeks, Bigsby leads all NFL backs in rushing yards per attempt (8.0), yards after contact per attempt (4.9), and yards over expected per attempt (4.19). He also ranks No. 1 in Player Profiler's breakaway run rate (17.6%).

I'm not sure how many carries he'll get today with Etienne (shoulder) suiting up in London, but he'll surely get some opportunities after 13 rushes last week.

I like Bigsby's chances of breaking one loose against a Bears defense that has struggled to limit explosive plays in the run game, especially against gap schemes. If he does, a $10 bet at FanDuel would return a $9.09 profit.

Our Phil Wood expects a big day from one of Bigsby's teammates as part of his Jaguars vs. Bears player props.

Best odds: -110 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 52.38%

Anthony Richardson Under 225.5 passing + rushing yards (-110) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

After a tantalizing start to his NFL career last year, Richardson has struggled to take the next step as a sophomore while battling injury for the second straight year.

He's expected to play through an oblique injury that sidelined him last week against the Jaguars and all but 13 snaps against the Steelers the week before. And he faces a nightmare matchup in his return.

The Titans have quietly allowed the NFL's third-fewest yards per play (4.4) and net yards per attempt (4.6) while surrendering the fewest passing yards per game (124).

They've also ceded the sixth-lowest average depth of target (6.5) - which matters against a big-game hunter like Richardson - and rank among the league leaders in limiting rushing yards to opposing quarterbacks since the start of last season.

Richardson's combined total of 225.5 at bet365 is a yard higher than it is at DraftKings or FanDuel with better odds for the Under than BetMGM or Caesars.

Best odds: -110 via bet365 | Implied probability: 52.38%

Lamar Jackson Over 1.5 passing TDs (-125) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

With all of the attention on Jayden Daniels ahead of this matchup, you might be surprised to hear that the reigning MVP is on the other side of this Battle of the Beltway. And, clearly, our best sportsbooks aren't expecting much.

Jackson has thrown for at least one touchdown in each of his first five starts, and he's combined for six scores over the last two weeks after his sensational four-TD performance against the Bengals last Sunday.

He's the one who faces a juicy matchup against this Commanders secondary, which has allowed the most passing touchdowns (11) and second-highest passer rating (114.7) through the first five weeks.

The Over is priced as short as -135 at Caesars with -129 odds or shorter at every other shop except FanDuel, where a $10 bet at these -125 odds would profit $8.

We break down more about both quarterbacks in this matchup in our Jayden Daniels vs. Lamar Jackson player props.

Best odds: -125 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 55.56%

Quentin Johnston Under 29.5 receiving yards (+100) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

This is a pretty brutal matchup for Johnston, who has already struggled to make an impact in his second season in Los Angeles.

The former first-round pick was averaging 44.3 yards through the first three weeks before catching just one of five targets for nine yards in the Chargers' 17-10 loss before the bye week.

He'll likely draw coverage along the boundary from star cornerback Patrick Surtain, who might be the best corner in football right now. He hasn't allowed a primary assignment to tally more than 29 yards in a game this year, including matchups against Mike Evans (eight yards) and Garrett Wilson (24).

Chargers QB Justin Herbert has battled through a high-ankle sprain since Week 2, and I'd expect Greg Roman to keep him out of harm's way against a Broncos defense that ranks second in blitz rate (40.1%) and third in both sacks (19) and pressure rate (31.6%).

Johnston isn't exactly a high-value possession receiver, and I'd be shocked if he gets open deep against Surtain. With this bet priced at -110 or worse everywhere else, these +100 odds feel like a gift from BetMGM.

Best odds: +100 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 50%

Joe Burrow Over 35.5 pass attempts (+108) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

I've been writing a lot over the last few weeks about the Bengals, who were featured among my Super Bowl predictions entering the season.

A key reason was Burrow, who has seemingly been given the green light to carry Cincinnati's offense after a 1-4 start that has hindered this team's NFL playoff odds.

Burrow threw it a season-high 39 times last week in a 41-38 loss to the Ravens, which marked the third time in the last four weeks that he's cleared this prop total.

The Giants enter Week 6 ranked first in sacks (22) and 10th in blitz rate (28.9%), which is a concern for this battered Bengals O-line. Yet New York's secondary has still allowed the 11th-most air yards (594) despite the fourth-lowest average depth of target (6.0).

That all screams an opportunity for Burrow to attack the Giants in the short passing game, especially with Chase turning so many quick passes into remarkable gains.

If Burrow clears this total for the fourth time in five weeks, a $10 bet at FanDuel would return $10.80 in profit.

Our Mike Spector is targeting Burrow's volume stats in a similar way as part of his Bengals vs. Giants prediction.

Best odds: +108 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 48.08%

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