NFL Week 18 Motivation Guide: How to Bet on Playoff Scenarios

Entering NFL Week 18 last season, the Jacksonville Jaguars were on the verge of stemming a late-season slide with a playoff berth. All they needed was a win.

Standing in their way were the lowly Tennessee Titans, who entered the final week of the regular season with "nothing to play for" - the go-to phrase for teams whose postseason hopes have already been dashed. As a result, the best NFL betting sites priced the Jaguars as 3.5-point road favorites even after losing four of their previous five games.

You can guess what happened next: the Titans spoiled their division rival's playoff hopes and continued a trend that has endured like clockwork for years. And with only a few "motivated" teams headlining the NFL Week 18 odds, don't be surprised if those with the most to lose are the ones on the wrong end of a do-or-die spot this weekend.

Don't overrate motivation in NFL Week 18

That Jaguars loss might seem like an isolated event, but it's become somewhat of an annual tradition in the final week of the NFL season.

Since 2011, 46 teams have entered the final week of the regular season needing a win to clinch a playoff spot (or to avoid needing help) against a team without a playoff berth, division title, or top seed at stake. Somewhat surprisingly, those teams have gone 20-23-1 against the spread (46.5%), which includes a 7-11 ATS record over the last three years.

These aren't just close losses, either. The Miami Dolphins needed a win over the Buffalo Bills' backups in 2020 to clinch a playoff spot; they lost by 30. A year later, the Indianapolis Colts fell as 14-point favorites to the previously one-win Jaguars; the Green Bay Packers (2022) and Jaguars (2023) did the same in a win-and-in scenario.

In fact, as mentioned above, it's become a nearly annual ritual of playoff rejection for teams facing their seemingly unmotivated rivals. At least one favorite has lost outright in its season finale against a team with "nothing to play for" in 10 of the last 13 years:

Of those 46 teams with playoff aspirations heading into the final week, 15 of them lost outright. That's a whopping 32.6% of "motivated" teams falling short - even higher than the overall win percentage for underdogs (28.6%) entering the final week of 2024.

It's not just teams on the playoff fringes, either. Those fighting for a division title in the final week of the season with a postseason ticket in hand have gone 9-13 ATS since 2011 against teams with essentially nothing on the line, and they've lost seven of those 22 games outright (31.8%) despite being favored by more than eight points on average.

Avoid the NFL Week 18 extremes

As we broke down in our 2023 NFL Week 18 motivation guide, not every Week 18 spot is created equal when it comes to betting on those with the playoffs at stake.

The biggest pitfall comes when laying big points on those who can't afford to lose, as well as those who are marginally favored despite having everything to play for. Here's a look at a few key spots to consider before making your NFL picks this weekend:

Some trends pop right off the page: the biggest favorites (14 points or more) and smallest favorites (0 to 3 points) have combined for an atrocious 4-11-1 ATS record.

Meanwhile, those laying just over a touchdown have been more likely to lose outright (four) than cover the spread (two) over the last 13 seasons, and underdogs needing a win to secure a postseason berth have struck out all three times.

If you're looking for a sweet spot, teams favored by at least 10 points but fewer than 14 points have cleaned up in Week 18 with a 6-1 ATS record and 7-0 record straight up. Even that comes with a note of caution, as the Cleveland Browns (-10.5) nearly lost outright to the Steelers' backups in 2020 but denied a late 2-point conversion for a 24-22 win.

If you're looking for an edge on teams seeking a first-round bye or home-field advantage, you likely won't find one there, either.

That group has covered just over 50% of the time since 2011 but also includes one of the biggest upsets in NFL history: the New England Patriots lost to the Dolphins (4-11) as 17.5-point favorites in 2019 to squander a first-round bye and ultimately set the stage for Tom Brady's exit that offseason. Talk about a costly loss.

Who has something to play for in NFL Week 18?

So how is this all possible? How can teams with everything at stake lose to those with nothing on the line at an even higher rate than a typical regular-season game?

For one, motivation is in the eye of the beholder. While the incentives on paper are surely greater for teams with the playoffs in sight, those who suit up in Week 18 are often playing for pride, paychecks, and a potential spot on another team - especially those who are getting a rare opportunity in place of the regular starters.

And with so much on the line for those Week 18 favorites, it's easy to see the pressure mounting against a team playing with nothing to lose. That's why those results against the spread aren't all that shocking, especially with our best sportsbooks often inflating the line in favor of the "motivated" teams knowing the public will line up to bet them.

To that point, here's a look at the five matchups this weekend featuring teams with either a playoff spot or division title at stake against those with no such reward. (We won't include the Cincinnati Bengals, since the Pittsburgh Steelers can improve their postseason seeding with a win on Saturday night.)

All five teams with a clear motivation edge over their opponent are favored to win this weekend, and three are laying double digits against their seemingly uninspired rival. Yet it's hard not to feel like some (or all) of these lines are grossly out of proportion.

Consider the first game this weekend, which sees the Baltimore Ravens favored by 19.5 points on the road against the Cleveland Browns - a bigger spread than Cleveland saw in the entirety of its 0-16 season in 2017.

The Broncos are double-digit favorites against the Chiefs' B-squad, which will benefit from 11 days to prepare for a chance to eliminate its division rival, in Denver's second-biggest chalk spot of the season. I wrote more about that game in my NFL Week 18 ATS picks.

Meanwhile, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are laying 13.5 points for the first time all season against the New Orleans Saints. The Atlanta Falcons are favored by as many as 8.5 points over the Carolina Panthers despite losing five of their last seven games. And the Dolphins are favored to win on the road even with QB Tua Tagovailoa (hip) unlikely to play.

That doesn't mean these teams won't cover and convincingly so. It also doesn't guarantee that they won't lose outright, as so many teams have done in a similar spot over the last decade. As we noted last year, every player on the field has families to feed and careers to sustain, so don't let "motivation" rule the day when making your NFL Week 18 predictions.

Week 18 expert picks

• NFL Week 18 player prop picks
• NFL Week 18 best bets
• Anytime touchdown scorer predictions Week 18
• Week 18 motivation guide
• NFL contract incentives and statistical milestones
• NFL Defensive Player of the Year odds
• NFL playoff odds for Wild Card Weekend
• NFL upset picks
• NFL picks against the spread

NFL Week 18 odds for key matchups

NFL odds from our best live betting sites entering Week 18.

Ravens vs. Browns odds

Panthers vs. Falcons odds

Saints vs. Buccaneers odds

Chiefs vs. Broncos odds

Dolphins vs. Jets odds

Odds to make NFL playoffs

NFL playoffs odds via our best NFL prop betting sites entering Week 18.

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