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NFL Contract Incentives, Statistical Milestones & Records: How to Bet Week 18 Player Props

C Jackson Cowart

Last Updated: January 4, 2025 5:38 PM EST • 10 min 34 sec read.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers wide receiver Mike Evans is congratulated by QB Baker Mayfield and wide receiver Jalen McMillan, as we examine the NFL contract incentives, statistical milestones, and records in Week 18 to help with your player prop bets this week.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers wide receiver Mike Evans (13) is congratulated by quarterback Baker Mayfield (6) and wide receiver Jalen McMillan (15). Photo by Kim Klement Neitzel / Imagn Images.

In just about every week of the NFL season, winning is everything. But in Week 18, it can pay to put up numbers, too.

By now, tracking NFL contract incentives and statistical milestones has graduated from a niche moneymaking strategy to a common way to profit on NFL Week 18 player props. But there is still value to be found in betting on contract bonuses for the league's top stars.

Just last year, players like Baker Mayfield and Chris Jones earned million-dollar paydays after cashing Week 18 incentives, and our best NFL betting sites are left footing the bill for those who get ahead of the action.

So we've saved you the work by compiling all of the key NFL contract incentives, records, and statistical milestones to target as part of your NFL Week 18 predictions.

NFL Week 18 contract incentives, statistical milestones & records

Live NFL odds from our best NFL prop betting sites entering Week 18.

QB Baker Mayfield, Buccaneers

Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Baker Mayfield warms up as we break down the best NFL Week 18 contract incentives, statistical milestones, and records at stake.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Baker Mayfield (6) warms up before a game against the New Orleans Saints. Photo by Matthew Hinton / Imagn Images.

As we wrote about in our NFL Week 18 motivation guide, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers need a win Sunday against the New Orleans Saints to clinch a playoff spot and the NFC South title. But Mayfield can also earn another big payday in what is becoming an annual tradition for the former No. 1 pick.

Entering Sunday, Mayfield ranks in the top five in passing yards (4,279), touchdowns (39), passer rating (107.6), and completion rate (71.8%), and he ranks seventh in yards per attempt (8.0). He'll earn separate $500,000 checks for every one of those categories in which he finishes in the top 10 overall or top five in the NFC.

He'll also pocket an additional $500,000 if the Bucs make the playoffs and for every subsequent postseason win - good for up to $5 million in extra incentives if he hits those statistical marks and leads Tampa Bay to a Super Bowl victory.

QB Geno Smith, Seahawks

Seattle Seahawks quarterback Geno Smith passes as we break down the best NFL Week 18 contract incentives, statistical milestones, and records at stake.
Seattle Seahawks quarterback Geno Smith (7) passes against the Los Angeles Rams. Photo by Joe Nicholson / Imagn Images.

Smith's incentive for making the playoffs ($2 million) is dead, but he can still earn an extra $2 million each for setting new career marks in passing yards (4,283) and completion rate (69.9%).

He's on pace to break both and would need to pass for 186 yards with a 69.75% completion rate on Sunday against the Los Angeles Rams to cash in. If he does, it would also break the Seattle Seahawks' single-season passing yards record that he set in 2022.

When these teams met in Week 9, Smith passed for 363 yards, three touchdowns, and three interceptions with a 61.76% completion rate. Don't be surprised if he's a little more conservative with the football against the Rams' backups.

QB Kyler Murray, Cardinals

Arizona Cardinals quarterback Kyler Murray rushes for a touchdown as we break down the best NFL Week 18 contract incentives, statistical milestones, and records at stake.
Arizona Cardinals quarterback Kyler Murray (1) rushes for a touchdown against the San Francisco 49ers. Photo by Darren Yamashita / Imagn Images.

Entering Sunday's game against the San Francisco 49ers, Murray has rushed for 550 yards and five touchdowns on the season. If he finishes the year with 600 yards and six scores - so if he rushes for 50 yards and a touchdown in Week 18 - he'll trigger a salary escalator for $750,000.

Murray has rushed for at least 50 yards and a score in three games this season, including when he tallied a season-high 83 yards and a touchdown back in Week 5. A repeat performance on Sunday would net a big payday amid an otherwise frustrating season. 

More QB incentives & milestones

  • Josh Allen would earn a $1.5 million incentive if he wins MVP. He's currently the favorite by the NFL MVP odds but is expected to play limited snaps.
  • Aaron Rodgers is one passing TD away from 500 in his career, which could be coming to an end as we discussed in our Aaron Rodgers retirement odds.
  • Matthew Stafford needs 191 passing yards to reach 60,000 for his career, though he isn't expected to suit up on Sunday.
  • Sam Darnold needs four passing TDs to tie the Vikings' single-season record (39).
  • Jared Goff needs five passing TDs to tie the Lions' single-season record (41).
  • Cooper Rush has played 52.5% of the total snaps for the Cowboys and would earn $500,000 for playing in 55% of the team's snaps this season.

RB Saquon Barkley, Eagles

Philadelphia Eagles running back Saquon Barkley runs with the ball as we break down the best NFL Week 18 contract incentives, statistical milestones, and records at stake.
Philadelphia Eagles running back Saquon Barkley (26) runs with the ball. Photo by Bill Streicher / Imagn Images.

The biggest record at stake this weekend is the NFL single-season rushing yards, which was set by Eric Dickerson when he ran for 2,105 yards in 16 games in 1984.

Barkley is just 100 yards away from tying that vaunted record entering Week 18, though the NFL Offensive Player of the Year odds favorite appears unlikely to suit up Sunday as the Philadelphia Eagles plan to rest their key starters against the New York Giants.

He'll also earn a $500,000 bonus for leading the league in total scrimmage yards (2,283). He sits 330 yards ahead of Baltimore Ravens back Derrick Henry, so he can probably start spending that bonus already.

RB Tony Pollard, Titans

Tennessee Titans running back Tony Pollard runs with the ball as we break down the best NFL Week 18 contract incentives, statistical milestones, and records at stake.
Tennessee Titans running back Tony Pollard (20) runs with the ball against the Houston Texans. Photo by Troy Taormina / Imagn Images.

Pollard hasn't quite enjoyed the breakout season that many expected when he left the Dallas Cowboys for the Tennessee Titans, but he's already logged his third consecutive 1,000-yard season in his debut season in Nashville.

He's also just 83 rushing yards away from a $250,000 bonus for reaching 1,100 rushing yards ahead of his Week 18 tilt with the Houston Texans. He can also lock in an additional $200,000 contract incentive if he scores twice on Sunday. Pollard hasn't done that all season, but he did rush for 119 yards and a score against the Texans back in Week 12.

RB J.K. Dobbins, Chargers

Los Angeles Chargers running back J.K. Dobbins runs with the ball as we break down the best NFL Week 18 contract incentives, statistical milestones, and records at stake.
Los Angeles Chargers running back J.K. Dobbins (27) runs with the ball. Photo by Gregory Fisher / Imagn Images.

Dobbins has enjoyed a career resurgence in Los Angeles after an injury-plagued tenure with the Baltimore Ravens, and he has a chance to pad his wallet even more on Sunday.

The Chargers back needs 58 rushing yards to secure a $150,000 bonus from the Bolts, and he'd earn an additional $150,000 for reaching 208 yards and another for 358 yards. Clearly, he won't hit the latter two, but he did gash the Las Vegas Raiders for a season-high 135 yards on just 10 attempts in Week 1 and faces them again this weekend.

More RB incentives & milestones

  • Derrick Henry needs one touchdown to break the Ravens' single-season rushing record (14). He's also 217 yards away from a 2,000-yard season and 283 yards from the team record.
  • Justice Hill needs 117 receiving yards and eight receptions to earn separate $250,000 bonuses.
  • Austin Ekeler needs 145 rushing yards and 154 receiving yards to cash separate $125,000 bonuses.
  • Alexander Mattison needs eight catches to earn a $125,000 bonus.
  • James Cook needs one more rushing TD to tie the Bills' single-season record (16) and 19 more rushing yards for his second straight 1,000-yard season.
  • Chase Brown needs 10 rushing yards for his first 1,000-yard season.
  • D'Andre Swift needs 106 rushing yards for his second 1,000-yard season.
  • Joe Mixon needs seven rushing yards for his fifth 1,000-yard season.

WR Mike Evans, Buccaneers

Tampa Bay Buccaneers wide receiver Mike Evans celebrates as we break down the best NFL Week 18 contract incentives, statistical milestones, and records at stake.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers wide receiver Mike Evans (13) celebrates after catching a pass for a two-point conversion. Photo by Nathan Ray Seebeck / Imagn Images.

While Mayfield is chasing the bag in Week 18, Evans also has a likely payday coming his way in the season finale. The five-time Pro Bowl wideout will earn a $3 million bonus if he records five catches and 85 receiving yards, which would help him tie Jerry Rice's record with 11 consecutive 1,000-yard seasons.

He'll also earn separate $666,000 bonuses for finishing in the top 10 in receptions, receiving yards, or receiving touchdowns, and he'd earn an additional $500,000 if he plays in 60% of the Buccaneers' snaps this season and they make the playoffs - along with a $500,000 bonus for every subsequent playoff win.

While he's far back on catches and yards, Evans is currently tied for third in touchdowns (11) and has played in 56.8% of his team's snaps. And you have to imagine Mayfield will be force-feeding his top target to help him reach the 1,000-yard mark.

WR Ja'Marr Chase, Bengals

Cincinnati Bengals wide receiver Ja
Cincinnati Bengals wide receiver Ja'Marr Chase (1) talks with Pittsburgh Steelers safety DeShon Elliott (25). Photo by Katie Stratman / Imagn Images.

While Chase doesn't have any money on the line in Week 18, he's chasing history as he helps the Bengals keep their NFL playoff odds alive.

Entering Saturday's contest, Chase leads the NFL in receptions (117), receiving yards (1,612), and receiving touchdowns (16) - putting him in line to become just the fifth player since 1970 to win the NFL's receiving triple crown and first since Cooper Kupp (2021).

He's also one touchdown away from tying the Bengals' single-season record (17) set by Carl Pickens in 1995, and he could break it with two scores on Saturday.

WR Malik Nabers, Giants

New York Giants wide receiver Malik Nabers scores as we break down the best NFL Week 18 contract incentives, statistical milestones, and records at stake.
New York Giants wide receiver Malik Nabers (1) scores on a touchdown reception. Photo by Vincent Carchietta / Imagn Images.

Even after missing two games earlier this season, Nabers is closing in on history at the end of his prolific rookie season. The Giants star needs six more targets against the Eagles to break the rookie record (167), and he trails Chase by one target to become the first rookie to ever lead the NFL since the stat was tracked in 1992.

He also trails Las Vegas Raiders tight end Brock Bowers for the rookie receptions record (108), though he can break Puka Nacua's old record (105) with one more catch in Week 18 or even surpass Bowers with enough volume on Sunday.

More WR incentives & milestones

  • Courtland Sutton needs 82 receiving yards to earn a $500,000 bonus.
  • DeAndre Hopkins needs 10 receptions and 141 receiving yards for separate $250,000 bonuses, and he'd earn $500,000 with a touchdown.
  • Marquez Valdes-Scantling can earn separate $250,000 bonuses for recording nine catches, 172 receiving yards, one touchdown, and three touchdowns.
  • Mack Hollins needs two catches to earn a $50,000 bonus and 72 receiving yards for a $200,000 bonus.
  • Jaxon Smith-Njigba needs four catches and 182 receiving yards to tie the Seahawks' single-season records, which were both set in 2020.
  • D.J. Moore needs 11 catches to reach 100 for the season and 120 receiving yards to reach 1,000 for the year.
  • Nico Collins needs 32 receiving yards to reach 1,000 for the second straight year.
  • Tyreek Hill needs 61 receiving yards for his fifth straight 1,000-yard season.
  • Garrett Wilson needs three catches for his first 100-reception season.
  • Drake London needs 10 catches for his first 100-reception season.
  • Davante Adams needs 25 receiving yards for his fifth straight 1,000-yard season.
  • Puka Nacua needs 10 receiving yards for his second 1,000-yard season in two career campaigns.
  • DK Metcalf needs 61 receiving yards for his third straight 1,000-yard season.
  • Jordan Addison needs 125 receiving yards for his first career 1,000-yard season.
  • Jameson Williams needs 33 receiving yards for his first career 1,000-yard season.
  • Jakobi Meyers needs 96 receiving yards for his first career 1,000-yard season.
  • Jauan Jennings needs 77 receiving yards for his first career 1,000-yard season.
  • Calvin Ridley needs 59 receiving yards for his third 1,000-yard season.
  • Darnell Mooney needs eight receiving yards for his second 1,000-yard season.

TE Brock Bowers, Raiders

Las Vegas Raiders tight end Brock Bowers runs as we break down the best NFL Week 18 contract incentives, statistical milestones, and records at stake.
Las Vegas Raiders tight end Brock Bowers (89) runs against the New Orleans Saints. Photo by Matthew Hinton / Imagn Images.

As mentioned earlier, Bowers currently holds the record for the most receptions by a rookie in a single season (108), sitting four catches clear of Nabers entering Sunday's contest against the Chargers.

He's also nine receptions away from breaking the all-time single-season record for receptions by a tight end (116), which was set by Zach Ertz in 2018. Bowers had six catches for 58 yards in his NFL debut in Los Angeles - the only game this year that he didn't start - and he's finished with nine or more catches in six games this season.

TE Zach Ertz, Commanders

Washington Commanders tight end Zach Ertz catches a touchdown pass as we break down the best NFL Week 18 contract incentives, statistical milestones, and records at stake.
Washington Commanders tight end Zach Ertz (86) catches a touchdown pass against the Dallas Cowboys. Photo by Geoff Burke / Imagn Images.

Ertz has put together an impressive campaign in Washington for what may be his final NFL season, and he could cap it off with a nice payday to boot.

Entering Sunday's tilt against the Cowboys, the Commanders tight end could cash three separate $250,000 bonuses for recording at least nine receptions, 90 receiving yards, and two touchdowns for a grand total of $750,000 in contract incentives.

Ertz finished with six catches for 72 yards and two touchdowns last week against the Atlanta Falcons, and while he's yet to clear 90 yards in a game this season, he hauled in six receptions and reached the end zone against Dallas back in Week 12.

More TE incentives & milestones

  • Dawson Knox needs eight catches for 89 yards to earn a $200,000 bonus. He's also played in 60.5% of the Bills' snaps and would earn $250,000 for reaching 60% in total.
  • Tyler Conklin needs one catch to earn a $250,000 bonus.
  • Mike Gesicki needs three receiving yards to earn a $125,000 bonus.

LB Von Miller, Bills

Buffalo Bills linebacker Von Miller sacks Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence as we break down the best NFL Week 18 contract incentives, statistical milestones, and records at stake.
Buffalo Bills linebacker Von Miller (40) sacks Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence (16). Photo by Mark Konezny / Imagn Images.

One of the biggest bonuses of Week 18 belongs to Miller, who is one sack away from pocketing an extra $1.5 million in his 14th NFL season.

The eight-time Pro Bowl pass-rusher finished with zero sacks last season, but he's tallied five through 12 appearances this season for the Buffalo Bills. That has already earned him $2.5 million in incentives, and he can earn another $1.5 million with a sack against the New England Patriots on Sunday.

If he goes off for 2.5 sacks, he could profit an additional $2 million on top of the previous incentives, though he hasn't finished with more than one sack in a game since 2022.

DT Calais Campbell, Dolphins

Miami Dolphins defensive tackle Calais Campbell celebrates as we break down the best NFL Week 18 contract incentives, statistical milestones, and records at stake.
Miami Dolphins defensive tackle Calais Campbell (93) celebrates. Photo by Sam Navarro / Imagn Images.

Campbell seems to finally be getting his due as one of the NFL's great interior pass-rushers over the last two decades, and he could ride into the sunset with a nice payday from the Miami Dolphins following their Week 18 contest against the New York Jets.

The 38-year-old already has four sacks this year, and he'd earn an additional $300,000 if he adds another to that total on Sunday. He could pocket another $100,000 if he finishes with two sacks this week and $325,000 more with three sacks for a total of $725,000.

LB Josh Sweat, Eagles

Philadelphia Eagles linebacker Josh Sweat pass rushes as we break down the best NFL Week 18 contract incentives, statistical milestones, and records at stake.
Philadelphia Eagles linebacker Josh Sweat (19) pass rushes against the New York Giants. Photo by Vincent Carchietta / Imagn Images.

Sweat has recorded just one sack in his last five games, but he has a chance to pad his wallet with a big day against the Giants on Sunday - if the Eagles let him play.

The Pro Bowl pass-rusher needs two sacks to cash a $1 million incentive for reaching 10 on the season. He'd bring in an additional $500,000 if he tallies three sacks and could add another half-million to his total if he records four sacks in Week 18.

More defense incentives & milestones

  • Zadarius Smith needs two sacks to cash a $250,000 bonus and four sacks for an additional $500,000 bonus.
  • Dante Fowler needs 1.5 sacks to reach 12 and earn a $375,000 bonus.
  • Frankie Luvu needs two more sacks to reach 10 and earn a $325,000 bonus.
  • Myles Garrett and Trey Hendrickson are tied for the NFL lead in sacks (14).
  • Danielle Hunter needs 0.5 sacks to reach 100 for his career and remains two sacks away from the league lead.
  • Micah Parsons needs 0.5 sacks to reach 10 for the fourth straight season.
  • Nick Bosa needs one sack to reach 10 for the fourth straight season.
  • Kerby Joseph needs one INT to tie the Lions' franchise record (10).

Week 18 expert picks

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Written By:
C Jackson Cowart
C Jackson Cowart is a publishing editor and lead writer for Sportsbook Review. An award-winning writer, reporter, and editor with a decade of sports media experience, "C-Jax" has worked with ESPN, Forbes, theScore, and various daily newspapers before joining the Sportsbook Review team. He's a proud graduate of the University of North Carolina, where he served as a beat writer for the Tar Heels' championship run through the NCAA men's basketball tournament in 2017. Jackson has spent the last five years covering sports betting as a predictive analyst, features writer, and industry reporter. Since joining the team in 2023, he's played a key role in Sportsbook Review's coverage of the Super Bowl, March Madness, and NBA playoffs while serving as the lead writer for the growing WNBA and NASCAR betting scenes. Though he's cashed some big bets over the years -- including Lamar Jackson to win MVP (twice) -- he's still haunted by enough second-place bet slips to wallpaper his home office. While Jackson is a committed "process over results" bettor with a keen eye for advanced stats and subtle bias in futures markets, he also embraces sports betting as a vehicle for entertainment and personal investment. He's written about everything from hot dogs to groundhogs and still hasn't forgiven his "inside source" for a sabotaged bet on the Gatorade color in Super Bowl LV.