Machibet LiveNFL Upset Picks, Predictions: Top Underdog Picks for Week 11

Last week, there were more outright wins by underdogs (eight) than favorites (six), resulting in the most successful week for 'dogs this season. We are back to highlight the top upset picks for the NFL's Week 11 action.

The Philadelphia Eagles were dealt their first loss in a shocking upset on Monday Night Football as -10.5 point favorites against the Washington Commanders.

Just as many people seemed surprised by the Las Vegas Raiders, who fell victim to the Indianapolis Colts in Jeff Saturday's head coaching debut. Bettors who backed the Raiders may feel scorned by those wagers, as Saturday seemingly kept his intentions to make Matt Ryan the starting quarterback hushed throughout the week.

Here are our top NFL upset picks for Week 11 (odds via BetMGM, DraftKings Sportsbook, and FanDuel Sportsbook).

NFL Upset Picks for Week 11

NFL Week 11 Underdog Predictions

Texans (+135)

The Texans (1-7-1) own the worst record in the league and have averaged just 15.8 points per game during a four-game losing streak. However, the latter is less of an issue when facing a Washington Commanders team that ranks 24th in scoring at 19.1 points per game and has scored more than 20 points just twice since Week 2.

Houston's Dameon Pierce continues to be a long bright spot in its offense, as he is coming off a 100-plus-scrimmage-yard day for the sixth time in the previous seven weeks. In addition, the Texans are 0-6 this season when Davis Mills is intercepted, but that should not be an issue when facing a Commanders defense that has just four interceptions (tied for 27th) on the season.

Houston is 4-1 ATS after an ATS loss, and we expect it to cover the spread in Week 11 and win outright.

Bears (+140)

Chicago has been a classic case of good news vs. bad news recently. The bad news is that it has allowed 38.3 points per game during a three-game losing streak. However, the good news is that the Bears are the first team in NFL history with 225-plus rushing yards in five consecutive games.

In many ways, these two teams mirror each other, as both have run-first quarterbacks who want to bludgeon the opposition with a power running game.

Though the Bears have won just one of their five games away from home, we still trust Justin Fields more than Atlanta Falcons quarterback Marcus Mariota, as the former is coming off back-to-back games with two or more passing touchdowns and 140-plus rushing yards. The rest of the league has combined for two such games in the entire Super Bowl era.

Atlanta was just gashed for 232 yards and 4.9 yards per carry by the Panthers, which bodes well for Chicago's chances to run wild again.

Colts (+310)

For our boldest upset pick of the week, we are picking the Colts to hand the Eagles their second consecutive loss. Indianapolis looked revitalized offensively last week under Matt Ryan after averaging 9.7 points per game during a three-game losing streak. With the upset win over the Raiders, Ryan improved to 4-3-1 as the starter (Sam Ehlinger went 0-2), and the veteran's presence seemingly did wonders to get Jonathan Taylor going, as well.

Taylor is coming off his first game with either 80-plus rushing yards or a touchdown since Week 1, and his fourth career rushing touchdown of 60-plus yards last week tied Lenny Moore's franchise record.

No one believed the Colts would knock off the Chiefs at home earlier this season, but we expect them to follow a similar game plan to frustrate the red-hot Jalen Hurts in coach Saturday's second game.

Where to Bet on NFL Upset Picks

Best NFL Betting Sites:

NFL Week 11 upset picks made 11/15/2022 at 5:39 a.m. ET.

Written By:
Mike Spector

Mike started in the sports writing industry in July 2019, and gained a lot of followers in his first year after finishing with the No. 2 overall record in an annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an Over/Under and moneyline perspective. Mike is an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, tennis, and all college sports. In his opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and he's especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. Mike's a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." When making wagers, Mike always scours the best odds at all of the major sports betting sites, where he mostly sifts through DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and bet365. He's tried several others and is of the firm belief that bettors should not just stick to one sportsbook, as there is always likely better value to be had with the same wager. In addition, while Mike received his undergraduate degree from Villanova University, he has no issue betting against the Wildcats when it comes to college basketball wagering, and suggests other bettors should always put their “head” before their “hearts.”