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NFL Upset Picks, Predictions Wild Card Weekend: 3 Underdogs to Bet This Week

Mike Spector

Last Updated: January 7, 2025 8:55 AM EST • 3 min 41 sec read.

Los Angeles Rams running back Kyren Williams celebrates with wide receivers Jordan Whittington and Puka Nacua after scoring a touchdown run against the Arizona Cardinals, and his team highlights our NFL upset picks for Wild Card Weekend.
Los Angeles Rams running back Kyren Williams celebrates with wide receivers Jordan Whittington and Puka Nacua after scoring a touchdown run against the Arizona Cardinals. Photo by Kirby Lee via Imagn Images.

The NFL playoffs begin with six games on the Wild Card Weekend slate starting on Saturday afternoon, and we scour the data to comprise our top three NFL upset picks from the opening weekend of postseason contests.

  • Last year, only one lower seed beat a higher-seeded team on Wild Card Weekend (the No. 7 seed Packers beat the No. 2 seed Cowboys 48-32)
  • Two teams (the Los Angeles Chargers and Minnesota Vikings) are road favorites this weekend
  • Minnesota is the first No. 5 seed ever to win 14 or more games

This is just a small taste of everything we're offering bettors with our NFL Wild Card Weekend predictions.

NFL underdogs to back: Wild Card Weekend

NFL odds as of Tuesday and subject to change. Track the NFL scores for the latest line movement and matchup info.

  • Packers () at Eagles ⭐⭐⭐
  • Commanders () at Buccaneers ⭐⭐⭐
  • Rams () vs. Vikings ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Wild Card Weekend upset predictions

NFL picks made Tuesday; odds subject to change. Our NEW NFL player prop odds ;tool can help you find the best odds on any market across legal sportsbooks in your area!

Packers (+195) ⭐⭐⭐

Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts has not played in two weeks, and it's anyone’s guess if he'll be hampered by lingering concussion symptoms that have kept him out.

Green Bay had the benefit of seeing Philadelphia’s unique running style up close in Sao Paulo in a 34-29 Week 1 loss. 

But the Packers actually outrushed the Eagles by 19 yards in that matchup and are one of seven teams to allow fewer than 100 rushing yards per game this season.

BetMGM is the only one of our best sports betting sites to offer better than +192 odds to back the road underdogs, and it offers great value compared to the +170 moneyline odds at DraftKings on the other end of the market. A $10 winning wager at +195 odds would net $19.50 in profits.

Best odds: +195 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 33.90%

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Commanders (+150) ⭐⭐⭐

Nineteen rookie quarterbacks have made a playoff start this century, and Jayden Daniels (along with Bo Nix) will add to that total this weekend.

From 2015 to 2021, rookie quarterbacks lost six consecutive postseason starts. Since 2022, Brock Purdy, Skylar Thompson, and C.J. Stroud have a combined 3-3 record as rookies in the playoffs. 

Thompson shouldn’t be penalized for his loss at Buffalo since he was not the starting quarterback all season. But Daniels has been, and he led the Commanders to their most wins (12) since 1991.

Washington is hot having won five straight games, and Daniels finished the regular season ranked fourth in Total QBR, while leading all rushers (including Saquon Barkley and Derrick Henry) in rushing EPA.

Caesars and BetMGM also offer +150 odds, with the shortest odds for Washington being the +142 currently at DraftKings.

Best odds: +150 via bet365 | Implied probability: 40.00%

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Rams (+108) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Minnesota was one win away from not even playing this weekend and having home-field advantage throughout the playoffs, but they're now made to board a flight to Los Angeles to play a road game despite winning four more games than the Rams.

Los Angeles beat Minnesota 30-20 at home in Week 7. And even though the Vikings are an impressive 9-1 in one-score games this season, the Rams' defense is why I am backing this play with four stars of confidence.

Los Angeles allowed just two touchdowns from Weeks 15 to 17 before it rested most of its starters in Week 18. That mental and physical rest could be huge against a deflated Vikings team that laid everything on the line to try and earn the No. 1 seed last week.

FanDuel is the only one of our best sports betting apps offering better than +105 odds to back the Rams.

Best odds: +108 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 48.08%

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NFL betting odds pages

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Written By:
Mike Spector
Mike started in the sports writing industry in July 2019, and gained a lot of followers in his first year after finishing with the No. 2 overall record in an annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an Over/Under and moneyline perspective. Mike is an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, tennis, and all college sports. In his opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and he's especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. Mike's a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." When making wagers, Mike always scours the best odds at all of the major sports betting sites, where he mostly sifts through DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and bet365. He's tried several others and is of the firm belief that bettors should not just stick to one sportsbook, as there is always likely better value to be had with the same wager. In addition, while Mike received his undergraduate degree from Villanova University, he has no issue betting against the Wildcats when it comes to college basketball wagering, and suggests other bettors should always put their “head” before their “hearts.”