NFL Upset Picks, Predictions Week 7: 3 Underdogs to Bet This Week

NFL favorites went 12-2 SU in Week 6 with nine victories coming by double digits, but we expect 'dogs to be barking in Week 7. 

• Underdogs of at least six points are 17-5 ATS with 10 outright wins in those 22 games
• Not only did all nine road favorites win outright in Week 6, but they all covered the spread 
• The biggest underdog of Week 7 is 1-4 SU and 1-4 ATS through six weeks

Our NFL upset picks attack several early games this weekend, starting with the London game and following up with two upset picks in the 1 p.m. ET time slot.

NFL underdogs to back: Week 7

NFL odds as of Wednesday and subject to change. Track the NFL scores for the latest line movement and matchup info.

• Patriots () vs. Jaguars ⭐⭐⭐
• Texans () at Packers ⭐⭐⭐
• Lions (+115 via BetMGM) at Vikings ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Week 7 upset predictions

NFL picks made Wednesday; odds subject to change. Our NEW NFL player prop odds ;tool can help you find the best odds on any market across legal sportsbooks in your area!

Patriots (+205) ⭐⭐⭐

The Jaguars have a significant scheduling advantage in this London matchup, having played overseas last week, so they do not have to get used to the time difference. However, Jacksonville may also have a lame-duck head coach in Doug Pederson after its third 1-5 start in the last five seasons, so it is fair to question its motivation level.

The Patriots lost by 20 points to the Houston Texans last week in Drake Maye's first career start. But it will be good to get away from Foxborough, Mass., as they are amid their longest home losing streak (eight games) since 1989-91. 

New England’s offense showed life under Maye, as his three touchdown passes were more than Jacoby Brissett produced in the first five games combined. And while the Patriots have averaged just 13.4 points per game during a five-game losing streak, it should not take much offense to beat a Jaguars team that has scored 17 or fewer points four times this season.

Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence has lost 10 of his last 11 starts, so the team should not be this big of a favorite, especially with the distractions of Pederson’s possible imminent firing looming.

There is a big 15-cent gap between the +190 moneyline odds at BetMGM and the +205 offered at FanDuel. At FanDuel, a $10 winning wager on the Patriots to pull the upset would net $20.50 in profit.

Best odds: +205 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 32.79%

Texans (+130) ⭐⭐⭐

Houston’s 5-1 start is its best since 2012. Quarterback C.J. Stroud is coming off his third career game (including playoffs) with three or more touchdown passes. Running back Joe Mixon helped offset wideout Nico Collins’ absence, as he eclipsed 100 rushing yards and had a rushing touchdown for the second time in three games this year as he returned from injury.

The Green Bay Packers come in with plenty of momentum after scoring on four straight drives in the first half of last week’s win against the Arizona Cardinals. And the Packers' defense has thrived on takeaways to this point, as they have two or more takeaways in each of the first six games of a season for the first time since 1996.

Houston is tied for 11th with the fewest giveaways (seven) this season, so if it protects the football against an opportunistic Packers defense, it has a great chance for an upset. 

BetMGM is one of the only top sports betting sites offering better than +125 moneyline odds to back the Texans.

Best odds: +130 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 43.48%

Lions (+115) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

The Minnesota Vikings are one of two 5-0 teams and rank first in DVOA and point differential. They are also the second team in the last 20 years to start 5-0 SU, 5-0 ATS, and cover the first-half spread in all five games. However, the pessimistic view is that they had a season-win total O/U of 6.5, so it is fair to expect regression to come.

In indoor games, Detroit Lions quarterback Jared Goff is 39-18 ATS and has covered 29 of the last 39 games over the previous four seasons. He leads a red-hot offense that has scored 40-plus points in back-to-back games for the first time since 1962, and the team is 4-1 for the second straight year for the first time since 1970-71.

As explosive as Detroit’s passing game is, Vikings defensive coordinator Brian Flores will be scratching his head about defending the Lions’ balanced offense. Detroit has run the ball for 115 or more yards and a rushing touchdown in each of the first five games of a season for the first time since 1956.

This line is the most balanced of our three upset picks among all the top sports betting sites, as the shortest odds for Detroit are the +110 offered at bet365.

Best odds: +115 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 46.51%

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