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NFL Upset Picks, Predictions Week 3: Can Buccaneers Surprise Eagles?

Connor Cooper

Last Updated: September 24, 2023 4:10 PM EDT • 4 min 58 sec read.

It’s only mid-September, but the Denver Broncos are in desperate need of a road victory when they visit the Miami Dolphins, which is why they're in our NFL upset picks for Week 3 based on the best NFL odds.

As the Denver Broncos have already dropped their first two games, but by a combined score of just 3 points, head coach Sean Payton has yet to completely turn things around in Denver. Things don’t get any easier this week in their first road contest, a visit to the 2-0 Miami Dolphins as full touchdown underdogs. However, we think the Broncos can rise to the challenge.

Here are our best NFL upset picks for Week 3 (odds via our best NFL betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

NFL upset picks: Week 3

  • Titans () vs. Browns ⭐⭐⭐⭐
  • Broncos () vs. Dolphins ⭐⭐⭐
  • Buccaneers (+195 via BetRivers) vs. Eagles ⭐⭐⭐

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NFL upset predictions

Titans ML vs. Browns () ⭐⭐⭐⭐

The Tennessee Titans finally broke back into the win column last week with a 27-24 overtime win over the Los Angeles Chargers, snapping an eight-game losing streak dating back to last season. Even better, they did it with a huge game from Ryan Tannehill, who completed 20 of his 24 passes for 246 yards, a touchdown, and zero interceptions. Tennessee finally showed an ability to create big plays on offense, producing two passing plays of 49 yards or more.

Now they head out on the road to visit a Cleveland Browns squad that is still reeling from the loss of star running back Nick Chubb, who is out for the season after a gruesome knee injury Monday night in Pittsburgh. Jerome Ford was solid in a relief effort against the Steelers, running for 106 yards and catching a touchdown pass, but he's not a gamechanger like Chubb - which spells trouble against a Tennessee defense that excels at stopping the run.

That puts a ton of pressure on Deshaun Watson to carry the Browns' offense, something he's yet to show he can do since returning from his lengthy suspension last season. In fact, Watson turnovers directly led to more than half of the Steelers' points in Cleveland's 26-22 loss Monday night. Tennessee excels in the role of a road underdog, going 7-2-1 against the spread in its last 10 in that spot, and will be live for another upset in what should be a tight, low-scoring game.

Our Philip Wood is also leaning toward Tennessee with his Titans-Browns prediction. For more, check out all of our NFL predictions for Week 3.

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Broncos ML vs. Dolphins () ⭐⭐⭐

The Broncos are off to yet another disappointing start, but at least this one is different. Russell Wilson and the offense are finally holding up their end of the bargain, leading the NFL in points per possession, but the usually stout defense let a late lead slip away in Week 1 against Las Vegas and then squandered an early 18-point advantage in last week's loss to Washington.

There aren't many better situational spots in the NFL than backing a playoff hopeful that is 0-2 and knows that a third straight defeat essentially spells doom for their postseason hopes. Getting out on the road could be a good thing for the beleaguered Denver defense, which should relish the challenge of shutting down Tua Tagovailoa and the Dolphins' attack. Offensively, the Broncos may also enjoy a familiarity advantage against the schemes of Miami defensive co-ordinator Vic Fangio, who was Denver's coach a few years ago.

Miami's offense wasn't nearly as lethal last week against Bill Belichick and the New England Patriots, with Tagovailoa held to 249 passing yards after putting up nearly 500 in the season opener versus the Chargers. Tua could also be without one of his top receivers as Jaylen Waddle was still in concussion protocol on Wednesday, preventing him from practicing at all this week.

Wood is also favoring the Broncos in this matchup while taking them to cover in his Broncos-Dolphins prediction.

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Buccaneers ML vs. Eagles () ⭐⭐⭐

Despite doubts arising after Tom Brady's retirement, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers have managed to maintain their playoff aspirations thanks to a roster filled with veterans who played a key role in their Super Bowl victory just three years ago. Notably, the team's defense has been a standout unit, ranking eighth in points allowed and second in rushing yards surrendered, showcasing its ability to remain competitive even in the absence of a legendary quarterback like Brady.

Jalen Hurts and the Eagles may rank second in the NFL in scoring, but Philly's offense has yet to look like the potent unit that helped the Eagles reach the Super Bowl last year. Some are even speculating that Hurts is playing through some sort of injury after averaging just 161 passing yards through the first two weeks. Philly was able to pull away from the Vikings last week by running the ball down Minnesota's throat, handing the ball off on 13 of 16 plays on one of its scoring drives, but that tactic won't work against this tough Tampa Bay front.

Baker Mayfield's impressive performance for the Buccaneers has been bolstered by their strong defense, allowing him to avoid taking unnecessary risks. With close to 500 passing yards and three touchdowns, Mayfield has yet to throw an interception this season. The key to Tampa Bay's potential upset victory as underdogs on Monday night lies in Mayfield's ability to avoid errors that could provide the struggling Philadelphia Eagles' passing game with a short field advantage, as a mistake-free performance from him could greatly enhance the Buccaneers' chances.

Our own Mike Spector likes Tampa in this matchup too, taking them to cover a 6.5-point spread with his Eagles-Buccaneers prediction.

NFL upset picks made 9/20/2023 at 8:46 p.m. ET.

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Written By:
Connor Cooper
Connor Cooper has written about sports in various capacities for more than 20 years, including as a newspaper reporter, sports handicapper, and betting analyst. He originates hockey plays every day throughout the NHL season, regularly bets his own opinions on NFL and college football, and relies on handicappers he trusts to find daily action in basketball, baseball, soccer, tennis, and golf. A diehard Maple Leafs and Blue Jays fan growing up in the Toronto area, Connor quickly shed all his allegiances once he realized that making money betting on sports was much more fun than cheering for his favorite team. Connor won’t hesitate to bet on — or against — anybody if that’s where the value lies. In addition to analyzing recent and season-long statistics, Connor always looks to account for the human element when breaking down games, weighing situational and motivational factors into his handicapping process. He's also a big believer in finding creative ways to generate more value, constantly scouring BetMGM, Caesar, FanDuel, and other regulated sportsbooks' derivative markets such as team totals, alternate lines, and player props.