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NFL Upset Picks, Predictions Week 2: Seahawks, Patriots in Desperation Mode

Connor Cooper

Last Updated: September 17, 2023 11:26 AM EDT • 4 min 1 sec read.

Our Week 2 NFL upset picks, which include the Seattle Seahawks, New England Patriots, and Jacksonville Jaguars, are based on the top NFL odds from our best sports betting apps. The Seahawks and Patriots must avoid an 0-2 start to maintain their postseason hopes, while the Jaguars aim to reach 2-0 and establish themselves as AFC contenders.

Even with parity an NFL staple, a slow start can quickly turn contenders to pretenders in the Super Bowl odds. Less than 12% of teams to start 0-2 have made the postseason since 1990, and the Seattle Seahawks and New England Patriots definitely want to be on the meatier side of that trend following Week 2.

It places the Seahawks and Patriots in a desperate situation this week as they seek to rebound from Week 1 defeats. Furthermore, it can provide value in betting against elite teams like the Kansas City Chiefs, a scenario that most bettors can't envision – beginning the season with two consecutive losses.

With that angle in mind, here are our best NFL upset picks for Week 2 (odds via our best NFL betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

NFL upset picks: Week 2

  • Seahawks () vs. Lions ⭐⭐⭐
  • Jaguars () vs. Chiefs ⭐⭐⭐
  • Patriots () vs. Dolphins ⭐⭐⭐⭐

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NFL upset predictions

Seahawks moneyline vs. Lions () ⭐⭐⭐

The Seahawks didn’t look at all like NFC West title contenders in Week 1, falling 30-13 to the Los Angeles Rams in their most lopsided home loss in six years. Seattle may have been guilty of looking past an L.A. team that is expected to vie with Arizona for the NFC basement, evidenced by quarterback Geno Smith’s comment to reporters that it seemed the Rams were playing harder than his team. But the Hawks should bring full focus in this one as they look to avoid their first 0-2 start since 2018.

Detroit’s bandwagon continues to grow following an opening-night win in Kansas City, but don’t forget the Chiefs were playing without two of their top three players in Travis Kelce and Chris Jones. Even so, K.C. likely would have won the game if it weren’t for several egregious drops by its receivers, including a pick-six that bounced off the hands of Kadarius Toney.

Should the Lions be home favorites in this spot? Sure. But catching nearly a 2:1 return with the motivated Seahawks at is too good to pass up.

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Jaguars moneyline vs. Chiefs () ⭐⭐⭐

The defending Super Bowl champion Chiefs can’t possibly start the season 0-2, can they? That’s the way the majority of bettors will be thinking this week, opening the opportunity to catch the home underdog Jaguars at a fat plus-money price. Jacksonville played K.C. extremely tough in last year’s playoffs and only appears stronger after adding receiver Calvin Ridley, who pulled in eight balls for 101 yards and a TD in the Jags’ Week 1 win over Indianapolis.

After playing without Kelce and Jones in the season opener against Detroit, the Chiefs could have both in the lineup versus the Jags, but how effective will they be? Kelce was limited in practice on Wednesday while Jones could take some time to hit his stride in his first game back from a contract holdout. Without Kelce as his lead target, Patrick Mahomes was a pedestrian 21 of 39 for 226 passing yards against Detroit, when K.C.’s lack of receiving depth was glaring as well.

Not only have the Jaguars won and covered each of their last six games as a home underdog, their average margin of victory in those contests has been nine points. Meanwhile, slow starts are nothing new to K.C., which is 1-6 against the spread in its last seven September outings. If the +155 return isn’t enough for you to step in front of a hungry Chiefs team here, catching +3.5 on the spread with Jacksonville also looks very attractive in a game that should be hotly contested.

Patriots moneyline vs. Dolphins () ⭐⭐⭐⭐

There weren’t many more misleading results in Week 1 than the Patriots’ 25-20 loss to the Philadelphia Eagles. After committing two early turnovers to spot Philly a 16-0 lead, New England held the Eagles to just three field goals the rest of the way and were 20 yards away from scoring the go-ahead touchdown in the final minute. On the afternoon, the Pats nearly doubled up Philadelphia in passing yards and enjoyed a 24-17 edge in first downs.

Miami’s offense stole the show in the Dolphins’ wild win over the Los Angeles Chargers last week, led by 466 passing yards from Tua Tagovailoa - 215 of them going to Tyreek Hill. However, New England’s secondary will provide a much tougher test, and the Pats could run wild against a Miami defense that was shredded for 233 rushing yards and three TDs on the ground.

Look for New England to down Miami for the 13th time in the last 15 meetings in Foxborough.

NFL upset picks made 14/9/2023 at 10:20 a.m. ET.

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Written By:
Connor Cooper
Connor Cooper has written about sports in various capacities for more than 20 years, including as a newspaper reporter, sports handicapper, and betting analyst. He originates hockey plays every day throughout the NHL season, regularly bets his own opinions on NFL and college football, and relies on handicappers he trusts to find daily action in basketball, baseball, soccer, tennis, and golf. A diehard Maple Leafs and Blue Jays fan growing up in the Toronto area, Connor quickly shed all his allegiances once he realized that making money betting on sports was much more fun than cheering for his favorite team. Connor won’t hesitate to bet on — or against — anybody if that’s where the value lies. In addition to analyzing recent and season-long statistics, Connor always looks to account for the human element when breaking down games, weighing situational and motivational factors into his handicapping process. He's also a big believer in finding creative ways to generate more value, constantly scouring BetMGM, Caesar, FanDuel, and other regulated sportsbooks' derivative markets such as team totals, alternate lines, and player props.