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NFL Week 18 Upset Picks, Predictions: Final Regular-Season Games Provide Plenty of Value

Thom Cunningham

Last Updated: January 7, 2024 3:35 PM EST • 2 min 46 sec read.

We're entering the final week of the regular season, and we have plenty of options through the best NFL odds at the best sportsbooks for our top upset predictions, thanks to various starters being benched.

We're gifted with some unlikely underdogs at our best sports betting apps in Week 18 due to multiple teams resting their starters ahead of the playoffs.

One game we're looking to exploit is the Kansas City Chiefs vs. Los Angeles Chargers. The Chiefs would be trading as heavy favorites in any typical game between these two teams in 2023. However, we're getting Kansas City as a fairly significant underdog as it's set to roll with its reserves.

We'll attack that game and more, as we hunt for value on some of the NFL's most intriguing underdogs in the final week of the regular season.

In addition to our NFL Week 18 predictions and NFL Week 18 player props, here are our best NFL upset picks for Week 18 (odds via our best NFL betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).  

NFL upset picks: Week 18

  • Kansas City Chiefs () vs. Los Angeles Chargers ⭐⭐⭐
  • Miami Dolphins () vs. Buffalo Bills ⭐⭐⭐
  • Cleveland Browns () vs. Cincinnati Bengals ⭐⭐

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NFL upset predictions

Chiefs ML vs. Chargers () ⭐⭐⭐

Even with the Chiefs benching their starters, they have to be considered live underdogs in this spot. The Chargers don't exactly have a team of starters, either, and Andy Reid and the superior Kansas City coaching staff will still be active.

Expect the Chiefs to be in full force in terms of motivation, looking for confidence entering the playoffs. The trends are also there for Kansas City, which has won five straight divisional road games as the underdog, including four straight against the Chargers. 

The Chiefs are on a 9-2 SU run over their last 11 road games, while also covering the spread in eight straight road games when facing an AFC opponent as an underdog. The Chargers, meanwhile, are on a 2-6 ATS skid along with failing to cover four of six at home.

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Dolphins ML vs. Bills () ⭐⭐⭐

The AFC East title is on in Miami, where the Dolphins are almost unbeatable and now face a team struggling mightily against the spread in the Buffalo Bills. Yes, Buffalo is on an outrageous 10-1 SU run in 11 games against Miami. The Bills are also on a four-game winning streak, but they haven't exactly looked great, especially throwing the ball.

Miami at home is an animal, winning eight of nine games along with six straight home games against the division. The Dolphins have also covered the spread in four of five games against teams with winning records, while Buffalo is on a 1-4 ATS skid when playing on the road. 

Browns ML vs. Bengals () ⭐⭐

The Cleveland Browns are a long-shot take here and only a two-star play as a result. With that said, the Browns have beaten the Cincinnati Bengals in six of their last seven meetings. Cincinnati has also dropped the spread in five straight divisional games. The +7 spread seems like a layup, but the +255 value for the Cleveland ML is a risk worth taking. 

Cincinnati has failed to cover the spread in six of eight games along with their last seven within the division. The numbers are there for an easy cover with the Browns, but even more so with the value they provide for an underdog outright win. 

NFL upset picks made Thursday at 7:40 p.m. ET

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Written By:
Thom Cunningham
Thom Cunningham has been working in sports media for 15 years covering over 30 different leagues and betting events. He is a former Editorial Production Manager, Digital Content Producer, and statistician for various betting entities and organizations such as Spectrum Sports and Stats Perform, LLC. He has appeared on VSIN and BetMGM Tonight to share his wide range of sports betting knowledge.