NFL Upset Picks, Predictions Week 17: 3 Underdogs to Bet This Week

NFL underdogs went 4-10 straight up in Week 16 entering Monday Night Football, and we're back with a trio of our best NFL upset picks based on the NFL Week 17 odds.

• Road favorites went 3-3 SU in Week 16 after going a combined 14-1 SU in the previous three weeks
• I correctly identified the Carolina Panthers as an upset pick last week, and they were the most significant moneyline underdog to win outright
• The New York Giants are amid a 10-game losing streak for the first time in franchise history

One of our upset picks focuses on a clash of two playoff-bound teams that feature prominently in the Super Bowl odds.

NFL underdogs to back: Week 17

NFL odds as of Sunday and subject to change. Track the NFL scores for the latest line movement and matchup info.

• Steelers () vs. Chiefs ⭐⭐⭐
• Raiders () at Saints ⭐⭐
• Cowboys () at Eagles ⭐⭐

Week 17 upset predictions

NFL picks made Sunday; odds subject to change. Our NEW NFL player prop odds tool can help you find the best odds on any market across legal sportsbooks in your area!

Steelers (+124) ⭐⭐⭐

The Steelers are underdogs for the third consecutive week. Even though they suffered 14-plus-point losses to the Philadelphia Eagles and Baltimore Ravens, the Steelers being at home gives me more confidence to back them this week.

Pittsburgh is the much more desperate team in this matchup, as it's deadlocked atop the AFC North with Baltimore. Meanwhile, Kansas City can afford to lose, and it can still wrap up the AFC’s No. 1 seed with a win next week (or a Bills loss in either of the next two games).

This becomes a more confident four-star play if Pittsburgh gets wide receiver George Pickens back from a three-game absence. 

Russell Wilson had averaged 143 passing yards per game in the two contests without Pickens entering last week, and 271 yards in the first six outings with him active.

Best odds: +124 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 44.64%

Raiders (+115) ⭐⭐

Las Vegas snapped a 10-game losing streak with a home win over Jacksonville last week despite scoring 19 or fewer points for the sixth straight game.

I'm starting this play off with a speculative two stars of confidence, which would grow to three stars or higher if New Orleans once again rules out Derek Carr and Alvin Kamara with injuries in Week 17. 

New Orleans won three of its first five games under interim head coach Darren Rizzi. But the Saints also had not topped 19 points in three consecutive games entering the Week 16 Monday Night Football contest. They're also 0-4 in games without Carr under center this year.

Most other NFL prop betting sites are offering the Raiders’ moneyline odds at +110 or shorter. I'm backing them with the +115 odds at BetMGM before the price shortens if Carr and/or Kamara end up getting ruled out closer to kickoff. 

Best odds: +115 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 46.51%

Cowboys (+122) ⭐⭐

The lookahead line at most of the NFL parlay betting sites featured Dallas as the +280 underdogs or higher. 

But that was before they upset the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Sunday Night Football for the Cowboys' fourth win in five games, and before Jalen Hurts left Philadelphia’s Week 16 game with a concussion.

Avoid this play if Hurts clears the concussion protocol and is active this week. But Kenny Pickett inspires very little confidence if he gets the start after being part of the reason the Eagles lost to the Washington Commanders while being outscored 22-6 in the fourth quarter this past week. 

Dallas is just 5-11 against the spread as an underdog since the start of last season. But it's won three of its last four in that role, including two against teams with eight-plus victories.

Best odds: +122 via Caesars | Implied probability: 45.05%

NFL betting odds pages

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• FanDuel Promo Code | Read our FanDuel Review
• DraftKings Promo Code | Read our DraftKings Review

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