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NFL Upset Picks, Predictions for Week 17: Carolina Thriving In Underdog Role

Connor Cooper

Last Updated: December 27, 2022 8:24 AM EST • 3 min read.

The Carolina Panthers have done their best work this season as an underdog, and they're catching a full field goal for this week’s pivotal clash with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Read on for why we like the Panthers as one of our three Week 17 upset picks.

The Panthers have won outright in five of their last eight games as an underdog. They hope that trend continues while visiting the Buccaneers in a Week 17 battle that could decide which team wins the NFC South.

The New Orleans Saints are still fighting for that division title too, but they’ll need an upset win in Philadelphia to keep their hopes alive. Meanwhile, the Los Angeles Rams are out of playoff contention, but there could be value in backing the blue and gold when they face a Los Angeles Chargers team that's already clinched a postseason berth.

Here are our top NFL upset picks for Week 17 (odds via FanDuel Sportsbook; Picks based on a 1-to-5 star rating).

Check out our Week 17 NFL against-the-spread power rankings and teaser picks.

NFL Upset Picks for Week 17

  • Panthers (+140) vs. Buccaneers
  • Saints (+260) vs. Eagles
  • Rams (+270) vs. Chargers

NFL Upset Predictions for Week 17

Panthers (+140) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

The Panthers covered the spread for the seventh time in nine games on Saturday, easily cooling off the red-hot Lions 37-23 for their third win in four games since Sam Darnold became the team’s starting quarterback. Carolina set a franchise record with 320 rushing yards, a recipe for success against a Tampa Bay defense that's been struggling to stop the run.

Meanwhile, Tampa Bay has covered the spread just once in its last 13 games and scored 17 points or fewer during regulation in four of the team's past five contests. The Bucs have also logged just one win by more than a field goal in their last 10 games.

Even though Caesars is offering the best moneyline price on the Panthers (+140), FanDuel is the better place to bet Carolina on the point spread. It's listing -110 odds on both sides, while Caesars shaded its line toward the Panthers while giving -115 odds.

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Saints (+260) ⭐⭐⭐

New Orleans is still fighting hard for the NFC South title. The Saints rallied from an early 10-0 deficit in frigid conditions during Week 16 in Cleveland to beat the Browns 17-10 and remain within a game of Tampa Bay for the division lead. The defense held a strong Browns running game under four yards per carry, which bodes well for a matchup against the Eagles’ rushing attack.

Philadelphia's five-game winning streak was snapped in Week 15 after a 40-34 loss in Dallas. Jalen Hurts sat out the game with an injured shoulder. Hurts may be kept out again as a precaution since the Eagles only need to win one of their last two games to clinch the top seed in the NFC. That would give the Saints an advantage.

FanDuel is the best place to bet on a Saints upset. It's listing New Orleans as +260 on the moneyline, 15 cents better than any of our other top recommended betting sites. That book is also posting the best price on New Orleans at +6.5, charging just -104 juice.

Rams (+270) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

There was a lot of celebrating in the Chargers’ locker room after Monday’s 20-3 victory in Indianapolis, with the team clinching its first playoff spot since 2018. Even though L.A. can still overtake the Ravens for the fifth seed and an easier draw in the opening round, this next game looks like a potential letdown spot for the Bolts, especially on a short week.

The oddsmakers agree, dropping the point spread from 7 to 6.5 following Monday’s result. The Rams' recent play may also be a factor, as they're coming off a rout of the Broncos and seem to have found lightning in a bottle with Baker Mayfield.

Most sportsbooks had moved down to +6.5 for the Rams with -110 juice on either side while dropping the moneyline to the +230 range. But I was able to find Rams +6.5 at -105 and +270 at FanDuel.

NFL Week 17 upset picks made 12/27/2022 at 9:35 a.m. ET.

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Written By:
Connor Cooper
Connor Cooper has written about sports in various capacities for more than 20 years, including as a newspaper reporter, sports handicapper, and betting analyst. He originates hockey plays every day throughout the NHL season, regularly bets his own opinions on NFL and college football, and relies on handicappers he trusts to find daily action in basketball, baseball, soccer, tennis, and golf. A diehard Maple Leafs and Blue Jays fan growing up in the Toronto area, Connor quickly shed all his allegiances once he realized that making money betting on sports was much more fun than cheering for his favorite team. Connor won’t hesitate to bet on — or against — anybody if that’s where the value lies. In addition to analyzing recent and season-long statistics, Connor always looks to account for the human element when breaking down games, weighing situational and motivational factors into his handicapping process. He's also a big believer in finding creative ways to generate more value, constantly scouring BetMGM, Caesar, FanDuel, and other regulated sportsbooks' derivative markets such as team totals, alternate lines, and player props.