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NFL Upset Picks, Predictions Week 16: 3 Underdogs to Bet This Week

Mike Spector

Last Updated: December 18, 2024 9:07 AM EST • 3 min 54 sec read.

New York Jets quarterback Aaron Rodgers and wide receiver Davante Adams low-five each other as we make our best Week 16 NFL upset picks.
New York Jets quarterback Aaron Rodgers and wide receiver Davante Adams low-five each other as they walk off the field. Photo by Corey Perrine / Florida Times-Union.

A week after there were four outright upsets in the NFL, we are back to make our NFL upset picks from a loaded 16-game Week 16 slate.

  • Favorites went 12-4 SU last week, but each of the top 10 moneyline favorites won outright
  • The Chiefs are home underdogs for just the third time since 2020
  • The Jaguars are favored for the first time in eight games when facing Las Vegas

As we continue our Week 16 NFL predictions, I have my favorite three underdogs to back in Week 16, two of whom might shake up an NFC divisional race.

NFL underdogs to back: Week 16

NFL odds as of Wednesday and subject to change. Track the NFL scores for the latest line movement and matchup info.

  • New York Jets () vs. Los Angeles Rams ⭐⭐⭐
  • Tennessee Titans () at Indianapolis Colts ⭐⭐⭐
  • Carolina Panthers (+185 via Caesars) vs. Arizona Cardinals ⭐⭐

Week 16 upset predictions

NFL picks made Wednesday; odds subject to change. Our NEW NFL player prop odds tool can help you find the best odds on any market across legal sportsbooks in your area!

Jets (+155) ⭐⭐⭐

The Jets snapped a four-game losing streak with a 32-25 road win over the Jaguars last week. The bad news is that New York allowed a Mac Jones-led offense to notch 27 first downs and 421 yards. The good news is that Aaron Rodgers has recently played his best football.

Rodgers has four games with a QBR of 74.1 or better this season; two of those have come within the last two weeks. Two of his three-highest passing yard totals have also come in the last two games, and he also showed mobility with 45 rushing yards last week.

Rodgers has re-established the old Green Bay connection with wideout Davante Adams, as Adams hauled in nine catches for 198 yards and two touchdowns in the second half alone last week.

This is a play worth three stars of confidence that the brutal cold forecasted for New York on Sunday will affect the dome team and Matthew Stafford more than it will Rodgers, who played most of his career at Lambeau Field.

BetMGM is the only one of our best sports betting apps where one can back the Jets at better than +152 moneyline odds. Through BetMGM’s +155 odds, a $10 winning wager would net $15.50 in profits.

Best odds: +155 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 39.22%

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Titans (+170) ⭐⭐⭐

Tennessee’s moneyline odds actually lowered from +178 to +170 at Caesars after the news that the team was likely to bench Will Levis this week. And since Caesars is the only one of the sites with the best sportsbook promos offering better than +168 odds, that is where I am making my wager.

Levis was a big reason the team is amid its third three-game losing streak of the season. Last week, he set career-highs in interceptions (three) and turnovers (four) and threw an NFL-high fourth pick-six. 

With better ball security from the starting quarterback, which will presumably be Mason Rudolph this week, the Titans have a great chance of upsetting a Colts team that has lost five of their last seven games and committed four turnovers in the second half alone last week.

Tennessee is 3-15 in its last 18 road games, but underdogs are 9-0 ATS in the last nine games between AFC South teams.

Indianapolis has won two straight in this series by a field goal each, so it has not exactly dominated this rivalry.

Best odds: +170 via Caesars | Implied probability: 37.04%

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Panthers (+185) ⭐⭐

Perhaps the Panthers are better suited as underdogs, as they lost 30-14 to the Cowboys as favorites last week for the first time in 34 games. But Bryce Young did not help matters with a career-high four turnovers, and Dallas has gotten hot with three wins in four games. 

This is still a Panthers team that had lost three straight games to division leaders (Chiefs, Buccaneers, and Eagles) by a combined 12 points before last week. Arizona has been vulnerable against NFC teams this year, going 3-6 against them as opposed to 4-1 against the AFC.

This line has moved in Carolina’s favor in the early part of the week, as the Panthers were as high as +195 moneyline underdogs at several of our top sports betting sites. As it currently stands, Caesars is the only shop offering better than +180 odds to back the underdogs.

Best odds: +185 via Caesars | Implied probability: 35.09%

NFL betting odds pages

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Written By:
Mike Spector
Mike started in the sports writing industry in July 2019, and gained a lot of followers in his first year after finishing with the No. 2 overall record in an annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an Over/Under and moneyline perspective. Mike is an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, tennis, and all college sports. In his opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and he's especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. Mike's a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." When making wagers, Mike always scours the best odds at all of the major sports betting sites, where he mostly sifts through DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and bet365. He's tried several others and is of the firm belief that bettors should not just stick to one sportsbook, as there is always likely better value to be had with the same wager. In addition, while Mike received his undergraduate degree from Villanova University, he has no issue betting against the Wildcats when it comes to college basketball wagering, and suggests other bettors should always put their “head” before their “hearts.”