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NFL Upset Picks, Predictions for Week 16: Backing Two Short Road Underdogs

Mike Spector

Last Updated: December 20, 2022 6:18 AM EST • 2 min 17 sec read.

Just four underdogs won outright in Week 15, but we identified three of those winners in last week's column. We're back to highlight the top upset picks for the NFL's Week 16 action.

The Kansas City Chiefs narrowly escaped with an overtime victory over the one-win Houston Texans as -900 moneyline favorites in Week 15. However, they became one of the five teams over the previous two weeks that have failed to cover as favorites of -9 or larger.

The most glaring Week 16 observation is that the 13-1 Philadelphia Eagles are +5.5-point road underdogs against the Dallas Cowboys. They had opened as +1.5 before the Jalen Hurts injury news.

Here are our top NFL upset picks for Week 16 (odds via  and WynnBet).

Check out our NFL odds and lines for Week 16.

NFL Upset Picks for Week 16

  • Saints ML (+140 via BetMGM) vs. Browns
  • Raiders ML (+130 via Wynn) vs. Steelers

NFL Upset Predictions for Week 16

Saints (+140) ⭐⭐⭐

The Saints are coming off their second season sweep of the Falcons over the last three campaigns. Alvin Kamara remains as consistent as ever after amassing 1,000-plus scrimmage yards in all six of his NFL seasons.

Andy Dalton has played well over the last four games while posting a 6-0 touchdown-to-interception ratio, while the Saints' defense has been holding opponents to 17.6 points per game over the previous five weeks.

Meanwhile, Browns quarterback Deshaun Watson's completion percentage has increased each of the last three weeks, but the team has managed just two offensive touchdowns during those games. Additionally, the total has plummeted from last week's lookahead line of 39 to 34.5, with the forecast calling for snow and wind gusts of up to 40 mph.

This game could come down to who runs the ball better, and Nick Chubb has been struggling lately while failing to average more than 4.7 yards per carry over the past five weeks. He's also surpassed the 100-yard plateau just once during his last six outings.

Raiders (+130) ⭐⭐⭐

The Steelers will be motivated over the final three weeks while needing at least a 2-0-1 finish to avoid their first losing season under head coach Mike Tomlin. Pittsburgh is 4-0 this season when rushing for at least 150 yards, but the team faces a Raiders squad that ranks in the top half of the league in rushing defense (117.4 yards per game allowed).

The Steelers have also held four consecutive opponents to 17 or fewer points, but Las Vegas looked more explosive offensively in Week 15 with a healthy Darren Waller (48 receiving yards and a touchdown). And Josh Jacobs continues to pile up big numbers, becoming the first Raider with 100-plus scrimmage yards in six consecutive games since 2010.

Las Vegas will build off the momentum of their first victory this season when holding a double-digit halftime lead (now 1-4). Pittsburgh has won three straight road games but lost back-to-back contests at home, and Las Vegas possesses the power running game necessary to succeed in cold weather.

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NFL Week 16 upset picks made 12/20/2022 at 6:36 a.m. ET.

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Written By:
Mike Spector
Mike started in the sports writing industry in July 2019, and gained a lot of followers in his first year after finishing with the No. 2 overall record in an annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an Over/Under and moneyline perspective. Mike is an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, tennis, and all college sports. In his opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and he's especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. Mike's a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." When making wagers, Mike always scours the best odds at all of the major sports betting sites, where he mostly sifts through DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and bet365. He's tried several others and is of the firm belief that bettors should not just stick to one sportsbook, as there is always likely better value to be had with the same wager. In addition, while Mike received his undergraduate degree from Villanova University, he has no issue betting against the Wildcats when it comes to college basketball wagering, and suggests other bettors should always put their “head” before their “hearts.”