NFL Upset Picks, Predictions Week 15: 3 Underdogs to Bet This Week

After going 3-0 for a profit of 4.71 units last week, we're back to keep the momentum going with our trio of NFL upset picks and predictions for Week 15.

• Favorites went 10-3 straight up last week, which means we correctly identified the only three outright upsets in Week 14
• The top seven moneyline favorites went 7-0 SU last week
• Four division leaders (Buffalo Bills, Pittsburgh Steelers, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and Seattle Seahawks) are underdogs in Week 15

NFL underdogs to back: Week 15

NFL odds as of Tuesday and subject to change. Track the NFL scores for the latest line movement and matchup info.

• Browns () vs. Chiefs ⭐⭐
• Dolphins () at Texans ⭐⭐⭐⭐
• Raiders () vs. Falcons ⭐⭐⭐

Week 15 upset predictions

NFL picks made Tuesday; odds subject to change. Our NEW NFL player prop odds tool can help you find the best odds on any market across legal sportsbooks in your area!

Browns (+250) ⭐⭐

The Cleveland Browns have lost four of their last five games. But they did beat a division leader (the Steelers) in their last home game. I'm taking a two-star flier on the Browns to pull off a second consecutive home upset of a division leader, as the Chiefs are bound to lose a close game.

Kansas City has earned some breathing room after another walk-off field goal last week. That win clinched the Chiefs' ninth straight AFC West title, and they own a two-game lead in the AFC for the No. 1 seed.

Six of the Chiefs’ wins have been decided on the last play, and the margin of victory has been three points or fewer in each of their last four contests.

Meanwhile, Cleveland has lost 10-plus games for the 18th time in 26 seasons since returning to the NFL. But the team has been featuring a more aggressive offense with Jameis Winston under center, and that could cause the Chiefs' defense some headaches.

Meanwhile, Patrick Mahomes entered last week ranked 22nd or worse among all quarterbacks in completions, yards, and interceptions on 20-plus-yard passes.

There's a huge 40-cent gap between DraftKings’ +250 odds and Cleveland’s +210 price at . Those +250 odds will lead to a $25 profit on a $10 winning wager if the Browns prevail.

Best odds: +250 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 28.57%

Dolphins (+120) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Miami, which is a deep long shot in the Super Bowl odds, is getting hot with wins in four of its last five games. That stretch includes scoring 30-plus points in every matchup during a three-game home winning streak.

The Dolphins should enjoy plenty of offensive success in the dome at NRG Stadium. With weather not a concern, Tua Tagovailoa gets a great chance to make it five consecutive games with two-plus touchdown passes and zero interceptions.

Houston gets a scheduling advantage coming off a bye, but it's just 3-6-1 ATS as a home favorite since the start of last season under C.J. Stroud.

The 2.5-point spread favoring the Texans suggests these teams are equal on a neutral field, which gives value to Miami’s +120 moneyline odds at bet365. 

That book is alone among our NFL prop betting sites while offering better than +118 odds to back the road underdogs to win outright. 

Best odds: +120 via bet365 | Implied probability: 45.45%

Raiders (+188) ⭐⭐⭐

Doubling down on my Falcons vs. Raiders early picks for this Monday Night Football matchup, I'm backing Las Vegas to pull off the outright upset and end a nine-game losing streak.

Atlanta is amid a four-game losing streak of its own, and Kirk Cousins has posted a 0:8 touchdown-to-interception ratio in that span. Meanwhile, the Falcons' defense has recorded just one takeaway over the last five games.

Early tests on Aidan O’Connell’s knee after he was carted off last week showed he suffered only a bone bruise. There's some uncertainty still early in the week, but it's now possible he plays in Week 15. ;

Either way, I have confidence in former Falcon Desmond Ridder if he's forced to start. Ridder would improve to .500 as a starter with a win (he's currently 8-9).

The worst price for Raiders moneyline backers is the +180 odds found at several of our top NFL parlay betting sites. We're squeezing extra value out of this play at FanDuel.

Best odds: +188 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 34.72%

NFL betting odds pages

Here are our best NFL betting sites:

• Caesars Promo Code: SBRBONUSDYW | Read our Caesars Review
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• bet365 Bonus Code: SBRBONUS | Read our bet365 Review
• FanDuel Promo Code | Read our FanDuel Review
• DraftKings Promo Code | Read our DraftKings Review

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