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Tua Tagovailoa MNF Player Prop Bets: Touchdown Picks & Odds

Mike Spector

Last Updated: November 11, 2024 8:29 AM EST • 3 min 49 sec read.

Miami Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa on the sidelines with head coach Mike McDaniel as we make our best Tua Tagovailoa MNF player prop bets.
Miami Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa on the sidelines with head coach Mike McDaniel. Photo by: Mark Konezny-Imagn Images.

Tua Tagovailoa is looking for his first win in his third start since his return from a concussion when he leads the Miami Dolphins into a Monday Night Football matchup against the Los Angeles Rams.

  • The Dolphins are amid their second three-game losing streak of the season
  • Tagovailoa is 3-9 ATS in his career in night games
  • Tagovailoa is looking to snap an eight-game losing streak in road games against teams .500 or better

Our Monday Night Football odds have the Dolphins anywhere from +1.5 to +2-point road underdogs. But as we continue our Week 10 NFL predictions, we wonder if we should expect fireworks in one of four Week 10 games with a projected total of 49 or higher.

Kickoff from SoFi Stadium airs on ESPN at 8:15 p.m. ET.

Tua Tagovailoa prop predictions for Monday Night Football

  • Tua Tagovailoa Over 1.5 passing touchdowns () ⭐⭐⭐
  • Tua Tagovailoa Over 21.5 completions () ⭐⭐⭐⭐
  • Tua Tagovailoa longest pass completion Over 35.5 yards (-114 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

NFL odds as of Monday and subject to change. Track the NFL scores for the latest line movement and matchup info.

Tua Tagovailoa touchdown pick vs. Rams

Tua Tagovailoa Over 1.5 passing touchdowns (-110) ⭐⭐⭐

Tagovailoa only had three incompletions last week, but that high-percentage passing attack also led to his first multiple-touchdown game of the season.

One argument for pessimism regarding this Over is that Tagovailoa’s ceiling seems to be two touchdowns, as he has now thrown for two or fewer touchdowns in 14 straight games, including the playoffs.

But I am still making this a three-star play, as the Rams' defense is due for regression. Los Angeles has allowed 1.49 points per drive since their bye week in Week 6, but prior to that, it ranked 31st in that category (2.78 points per drive allowed), per Sharp Football Analysis. 

I wrote about the Dolphins chances in our Dolphins vs. Rams prediction, and Tua connecting on a few touchdown passes would help that along.

BetMGM is one of the few top sports betting sites offering the Over at the standard -110 juice, as this play is juiced as high as -118 (carrying a 54.13% implied probability) at Caesars.

Best odds: -110 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 52.38%

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Tua Tagovailoa player props

NFL picks made Monday; odds subject to change. Our NEW NFL player prop odds tool can help you find the best odds on any market across legal sportsbooks in your area!

Tua Tagovailoa Over 21.5 completions (-122) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

This four-star play comes with the knowledge that Tagovailoa has completed 23 or more passes in all three games he started and finished this year. And based on the Rams’ inability to pressure the quarterback, Tagovailoa should slice their defense in a high-volume passing attack.

Tagovailoa has been pressured on a league-low 17.3% of dropbacks. And when Los Angeles has not pressured the quarterback, it ranks in the bottom-five in yards per attempt allowed and touchdown rate. Our Dolphins vs. Rams MNF prop bets think the QB will be slinging it all night, too.  

Earlier in the week, DraftKings had its Over of 22.5 completions juiced to -120. Thus, in comparison these -122 odds at FanDuel at a lower number are a great value.

A $10 winning wager would pay out $18.20.

Best odds: -122 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 54.95%

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Tua Tagovailoa longest pass completion Over 35.5 yards (-114) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Tagovailoa had an 80-yard touchdown pass to Tyreek Hill in Week 1. But since, his longest completion in three games is 30 yards. 

I expect that to change this week against a Rams secondary that allows a league-high 7.3 yards per attempt when quarterbacks pass within 2.5 seconds of the snap.

Dolphins head coach Mike McDaniel will likely continue to utilize play-action at a high rate (they already use it third-most in the league in Tua’s starts). L.A.’s defense ranks in the bottom four of the league in EPA and yards per attempt allowed on play-action.

The best number and price for this wager is at FanDuel. FanDuel is the only one of our top sports betting sites offering an O/U of 35.5 yards, as all others are one yard higher at 36.5 at juiced to at least -115.

Best odds: -114 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 53.27%

Dolphins vs. Rams odds

Monday Night Football game info

  • Matchup: Dolphins vs. Rams
  • Kickoff: 8:15 p.m. ET
  • Where: SoFi Stadium (Inglewood, Calif.)
  • How to watch: ESPN
  • Weather: Indoors
  • Favorite: Rams -1.5 (-110 via BetMGM)

NFL betting odds pages

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Written By:
Mike Spector
Mike started in the sports writing industry in July 2019, and gained a lot of followers in his first year after finishing with the No. 2 overall record in an annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an Over/Under and moneyline perspective. Mike is an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, tennis, and all college sports. In his opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and he's especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. Mike's a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." When making wagers, Mike always scours the best odds at all of the major sports betting sites, where he mostly sifts through DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and bet365. He's tried several others and is of the firm belief that bettors should not just stick to one sportsbook, as there is always likely better value to be had with the same wager. In addition, while Mike received his undergraduate degree from Villanova University, he has no issue betting against the Wildcats when it comes to college basketball wagering, and suggests other bettors should always put their “head” before their “hearts.”