NFL Touchdown Scorer Prop Picks for Week 11: Barkley Will Run Wild Over Lions' Cowardly Defense
Last Updated: November 18, 2022 8:24 AM EST • 3 min 11 sec read.
New York Giants running back Saquon Barkley draws a soft matchup against the Detroit Lions, and he headlines our top NFL touchdown-scorer prop picks for Week 11.
There are a number of favorable matchups and outlier odds to target in the touchdown markets for Week 11. Shopping for the best number remains a priority, as there continues to be a huge disparity in the odds available across our top-rated sportsbooks for touchdown props.
Here are our Week 11 NFL touchdown prop picks (odds via BetMGM, Caesars Sportsbook, FanDuel Sportsbook, and DraftKings Sportsbook; Pick confidence is based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Check out our NFL best bets and all of our top picks for Week 11.
Anytime Touchdown Picks
- Terry McLaurin, Commanders anytime TD (+160 via FanDuel)
- Darius Slayton, Giants anytime TD (+210 via Caesars)
- Demarcus Robinson, Ravens anytime TD (+500 via Caesars)
McLaurin anytime TD (+160) ★★★
The Houston Texans are an interesting matchup for opposing wide receivers because they’re allowing the NFL's highest yards per target. They’ve also only surrendered four receiving touchdowns all season.
I’m chalking that up primarily to game flow, as Houston has also faced the league's fewest pass attempts. Additionally, I like the one-on-one matchup between Commanders wide receiver Terry McLaurin and Texans rookie cornerback Derek Stingley Jr.
Stingley ranks 99th in coverage grade among cornerbacks, according to Pro Football Focus, and McLaurin is eyeing statistical correction. The fourth-year wideout has only found paydirt twice all season after scoring 16 times across 46 games through his first three campaigns.
McLaurin has also clicked with quarterback Taylor Heinicke to the tune of 24 receptions, 370 yards, and a score over the past four weeks. There’s heightened value available through FanDuel compared to the +145 DraftKings is offering, too.
Slayton anytime TD (+210) ★★
It’s been a throwback season for New York Giants wide receiver Darius Slayton. After opening the campaign as a healthy scratch in Week 1, the fourth-year veteran is now the clear No. 1 wide receiver for the G-Men.
Slayton has found the end zone twice across the past three games while getting 16 targets. The Lions offer a soft matchup, as they allow the third-highest yards per target (9.3) and rank 24th in pass defense DVOA, according to Football Outsiders.
With DraftKings hanging a +155 number for Slayton to score in Week 11, I value the better odds available via Caesars.
Robinson anytime TD (+500) ★
The Baltimore Ravens are thin at wide receiver following the season-ending injury to Rashod Bateman (foot). Wideout DeMarcus Robinson has played the second-most snaps in each of the past three games Bateman has missed.
Caesars is also offering an outlier number for Robinson to score against the Carolina Panthers in Week 11. He’s trading as low as +290 via DraftKings, and it’s incredibly rare to find a No. 2 wide receiver priced this high in the touchdown markets.
Robinson has only scored one touchdown in 2022, and it came all the way back in Week 2 against the Miami Dolphins. Still, he's received three red-zone targets across the past two games. He'll be involved in the passing attack again in Week 11.
Two or More Touchdowns Pick
- Justin Jefferson, Vikings (+550 via DraftKings)
Jefferson two-plus touchdowns (+550) ★★
Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers just shredded the Dallas Cowboys through the air, and Packers wide receiver Christian Watson scored three times in Week 10. Minnesota Vikings quarterback Kirk Cousins and wideout Justin Jefferson are a tougher duo to slow down.
Additionally, the Cowboys posted the fifth-worst pass defense DVOA in Week 10, and they produced their worst coverage grade of the season, according to PFF.
Even with Jefferson scoring in consecutive weeks, he’s been failing to cash in on his goal-line opportunities. Jefferson has turned just two of his 19 red-zone targets into scores, and he’s only caught four touchdown passes in 2022 after hauling in 17 through his first two seasons.
This is also a double-down opportunity to mitigate some risk. The best odds available for Jefferson to score an anytime touchdown are -105 via DraftKings.
Anytime TD Scorer Second Half
- Saquon Barkley, Giants (+120 via DraftKings)
Barkley anytime TD second Half (+120) ★★★★
Barkley has scored six touchdowns in 2022, and five have come in the second half. As a result, I value receiving plus money for an anytime touchdown after halftime a lot more than the prohibitive anytime TD odds. BetMGM is pricing Barkley at -225 to score on Sunday.
The rusher has handled a healthy 25 red-zone carries in 2022, including seven totes inside the 5-yard line over the past five games. He's the go-to weapon for the Giants, especially as New York marches closer to the goal line.
The Detroit Lions have surrendered 15 rushing touchdowns while also allowing the fifth-highest yards per carry to opposing running backs. Detroit has given up the most second-half points per game, too.
Add in the Lions ranking sixth-worst in rush defense DVOA and grading eighth-lowest in run defense, according to PFF, and this is one of the week's softest matchups.
Where to Bet on NFL Touchdown Prop Picks
Week 11 NFL touchdown prop picks made 11/18/2022 at 12:30 p.m. ET.
Neil Parker
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