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Texans vs. Jaguars Predictions, Picks & Odds Week 3: Collins Continues Hot Start

Philip Wood

Last Updated: September 24, 2023 11:58 AM EDT • 3 min 20 sec read.

The Jacksonville Jaguars host the Houston Texans at EverBank Stadium on Sunday afternoon, and here are our top Texans vs. Jaguars predictions based on the Week 3 NFL odds from our best sports betting apps.

The 0-2 Houston Texans and rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud face the 1-1 Jacksonville Jaguars in an AFC South battle. 

Both clubs lost at home in Week 2. Houston fell 31-20 to the Indianapolis Colts, and the Jacksonville offense struggled in a 17-9 loss to the Kansas City Chiefs.

Jacksonville remains the favorite to win the AFC South, and the Jaguars are also a heavy favorite over Houston in Week 3. The Jags are also among the most popular survivor picks in Week 3. 

To accompany your NFL best bets for Week 3, here is our best Texans vs. Jaguars prediction and our NFL picks (odds via our best NFL betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Texans vs. Jaguars prediction

Nico Collins Over 53.5 receiving yards () ⭐⭐⭐⭐

When this line opened with the Jaguars favored by 9.5 points, they seemed like the obvious play. However, with the public showing overwhelming support for the home team and the line moving in favor of the Texans, this is a stay-away. Last year the Texans defeated the Jags 13-6 in Jacksonville.

One thing we're certain of after two games is the Texans’ passing attack. Their run blocking is so bad that running back Dameon Pierce never has a chance to gain yards when he gets the ball. When you mix a weak O-line with a team that's always playing from behind, you get fantastic air production.

Through two weeks, Houston wide receiver Nico Collins saw 20 targets. He hauled in 13 catches for 226 yards and averages 17.4 yards per reception. He's recorded at least 80 yards in both matchups this season, and we don’t see any way that changes this week.

Collins’ previous career numbers are the only reason this prop line is so low. However, with Stroud, this is essentially a brand-new player. Entering the week, Stroud had the NFL's third-most passing attempts. In what should be another contest where his team plays from behind, expect him to throw the ball a lot, especially to his favorite target.

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Texans vs. Jaguars best odds

DraftKingsFanDuelBetMGMCaesarsbet365
Over 53.5Over 50.5Over 53.5Over 53.5Over 53.5
-115-130-115-115

Four of the five best sports betting apps have a total of 53.5 yards listed. While FanDuel offers a total of 50.5, the price of -130 is way too high for just three yards.

The best price of any of the best sports betting sites offering 53.5 is at , so wager there. However, keep an eye on line. If it goes up to 51.5 or 52.5 for a price of -115 or better, then it becomes the best place for this bet.

Texans vs. Jaguars odds

Texans vs. Jaguars odds analysis

The Jaguars opened as 9.5-point favorites, and despite 77% of wagers backing them, the line dropped to -8.5. It really doesn’t make sense, but signals oddsmakers have much less faith in Jacksonville than the public does. Maybe this number will climb back to 9, but it seems like key numbers are out of the equation ahead of Sunday’s game.

As for the total, the number opened at 44.5, and it either moved or dropped to 44 at each of the major sportsbooks. More than of 53% of wagers back the Over, but that isn’t enough support for any serious movement. Whatever side you're on, don’t expect much change one way or the other before kickoff.

Texans vs. Jaguars game info

  • When: Sunday, Sept. 24 at 1 p.m. ET
  • Where: EverBank Stadium, Jacksonville, FL
  • How to watch: FOX
  • Weather: 92 degrees, 6% chance of precipitation, 7-mph winds

Texans vs. Jaguars prediction made Friday, 9/22/23 at 12:12 p.m. ET

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Written By:
Philip Wood
Phil has covered sports betting since 2016, and he has been with SportsBook Review since 2022. He previously hosted the College Football Pick 'Em podcast for CanesInsight.com. He is always looking for value, especially on lines that just seem too good to be true. His belief is that if a line doesn't make sense just assume oddsmakers know something you don't. He also loves in-season futures. There is so much value to be had as the public overreacts weekly. Bettors tend to forget just how long NFL and college football seasons are. After all, the Green Bay Packers were 2-5 in 2023 and they made it to the Divisional Round. When deciding where to bet, it comes down to value over everything. +100 is always better than -110. An alumnus of The U, Phil always holds out hope that the next head coach will be the one who turns the football program around. He is also a diehard Detroit Lions fan and is willing to forgive Dan Campbell for forgetting that a kicker can be useful.