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Texans vs. Cowboys Early Picks, Predictions & Odds for MNF Week 11

Philip Wood

Last Updated: November 11, 2024 5:56 PM EST • 3 min 21 sec read.

Houston Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud attempts a pass during the second quarter against the Detroit Lions as we offer our Texans vs. Cowboys early picks for MFN in Week 11.
Houston Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud attempts a pass during the second quarter against the Detroit Lions. Photo by Troy Taormina via Imagn Images

The 3-6 Dallas Cowboys host the 6-4 Houston Texans as both teams look to end losing streaks on Monday Night Football.

I take a look at the Texans vs. Cowboys early picks and odds as the two teams prepare to battle at AT&T Stadium (8:15 p.m. ET, ESPN/ABC).

Despite their collapse against the Detroit Lions in Week 10, the Texans, favored anywhere from 6 to 7.5 points, are still among the Super Bowl odds contenders. 

The Cowboys have lost four consecutive games and capitulated entirely in their first game without Dak Prescott, with Cooper Rush finishing 13-of-23 for 45 yards in the 34-6 loss to the Philadelphia Eagles.

The below pick is part of our NFL Week 11 predictions, including the SNF Bengals vs. Chargers early picks. 

My early Texans vs. Cowboys prediction: Texans -6

NFL picks made Monday; odds subject to change. Our NEW NFL player prop odds tool can help you find the best odds on any market across legal sportsbooks in your area!

Prediction: Texans -6

The Cowboys are completely inept offensively without Prescott. That will be a huge problem moving forward, considering they also have one of the worst defensive units in the league. The Cowboys are allowing 28.8 points per game, the second most. The Texans are averaging 22.4 points per game.

Based on what the Cowboys did against the Philadelphia Eagles last week, it’s hard to imagine how things will improve in Week 11. The Cowboys turned the ball over five times in Week 10, and this week, they take on a Texans defense that picked off Jared Goff five times.

The Texans’ offense will lean heavily on Joe Mixon against a defense allowing 152.1 rushing yards per game. And although Mixon may struggle early, he should find more space as the game progresses and the Cowboys’ defense tires.

The Cowboys are outmatched, out-gunned and utterly devoid of continuity and confidence. I expect their inability to control possession and their issues with turnovers to rear their ugly head again

Best odds: | Implied probability: 52.38%

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Texans vs. Cowboys live odds

See the NFL odds from our best NFL betting sites for every Week 11 game.

Moneyline

  • Texans best odds: -340 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 77.27%
  • Cowboys best odds: +275 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 26.67%

The Cowboys’ price is the same at every major sportsbook, but the Texans’ price varies. The Texans’ number is as high as -357, and while FanDuel is offering -340, it’s just a matter of time before that number climbs. With how the Cowboys looked last week, there’s no reason to expect the public to have any faith in them.

The price for the Texans is expensive, so I’d recommend playing it in a parlay rather than straight-up.

Spread

  • Texans best odds: -6 (-110) via Caesars
  • Cowboys best odds: +7.5 (-110) via BetMGM

Seeing this number stay below seven points at any of our best NFL betting sites on Monday's kickoff would be shocking. The Cowboys are coming off a 28-point loss, and they’ve now lost two of their last four games by at least that many.

Because Rush will be back under center, the public is likely to fade the hopeless Cowboys. While the largest spread available is 7.5, I wouldn’t be surprised to see it hit nine before kickoff.

Over/Under

  • Over best odds: 41.5 (-110) via BetMGM
  • Under best odds: 42.5 (-110) via FanDuel

The Cowboys have given up at least 27 points in four consecutive games, but will their offense do enough to push this total Over? The Texans have allowed at least 20 points in eight consecutive games. Last week, in a game with five interceptions, it still conceded 26.

Considering their recent trends and how bad the Cowboys have been defensively, I expect the public to favor the Over.

How to watch Texans vs. Cowboys

  • When: Monday, Nov. 18
  • Kickoff: 8:15 p.m. ET
  • Where: AT&T Stadium (Arlington, Texas)
  • How to watch: ESPN/ABC
  • Weather: Indoors
  • Favorite: Texans -6 (-110 via Caesars)

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Written By:
Philip Wood
Phil has covered sports betting since 2016, and he has been with SportsBook Review since 2022. He previously hosted the College Football Pick 'Em podcast for CanesInsight.com. He is always looking for value, especially on lines that just seem too good to be true. His belief is that if a line doesn't make sense just assume oddsmakers know something you don't. He also loves in-season futures. There is so much value to be had as the public overreacts weekly. Bettors tend to forget just how long NFL and college football seasons are. After all, the Green Bay Packers were 2-5 in 2023 and they made it to the Divisional Round. When deciding where to bet, it comes down to value over everything. +100 is always better than -110. An alumnus of The U, Phil always holds out hope that the next head coach will be the one who turns the football program around. He is also a diehard Detroit Lions fan and is willing to forgive Dan Campbell for forgetting that a kicker can be useful.