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Texans vs. Chiefs Parlay Picks & Predictions: SGP Odds

Brenden Schaeffer

Last Updated: December 21, 2024 8:00 AM EST • 2 min 64 sec read.

Patrick Mahomes will lead the Chiefs' offense on Saturday following a speedy recovery from an ankle injury. But will his numbers be very impressive against Houston’s strong secondary?

Our Texans vs. Chiefs parlay picks key on a niche rushing prop for one Kansas City wide receiver. But it otherwise envisions a quiet day offensively between two playoff-caliber opponents that feature prominently in the Super Bowl odds.

The Chiefs (-3.5) host the Texans at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, Mo. Saturday at 1 p.m. ET (NBC).

Mike Spector also dove into this matchup in his Texans vs. Chiefs prediction.

Texans vs. Chiefs parlay predictions

NFL picks based on the odds from our best NFL betting sites. Odds subject to change.

  • Under 42.5 (-110) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
  • Patrick Mahomes Under 226.5 passing yards (-115) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
  • Worthy Over 1.5 rushing yards (-120) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

Combined odds: | Implied probability: 19.61%

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SGP predictions for Texans vs. Chiefs

Our NEW NFL player prop odds tool can help you find the best odds on any market across legal sportsbooks in your area!

Under 42.5 (-110) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

With the way Chiefs games have been going lately, I was surprised to see this total so high into the 40s. 

  • The Chiefs have been involved in three straight games that fell below a 42.5-point total, and their defense hasn’t allowed an opponent to score above 17 points during that span
  • Games involving the Texans this season have hit the Under at the NFL's highest rate, going just 4-10 to the Over

DraftKings offers great value on this prop for Under bettors with the total listed at 42.5. The rest of our NFL prop betting sites feature the total between 41.5 and 42 points.

Mahomes Under 226.5 passing yards (-115) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Patrick Mahomes is healthy enough to play despite suffering an ankle injury last week against Cleveland. But the matchup on Saturday against a stout Texans secondary may not lead to an overly productive outing for No. 15.

  • Houston ranks sixth in the NFL in pass defense this season, allowing just 196.9 passing yards per game
  • Mahomes’ passing total has fallen below this mark six times on the season, including each of his last two games

Mahomes' passing line ranges between 224.5 yards and 227.5 yards across our NFL parlay betting sites. The 226.5 yards through DraftKings is one of the more attractive numbers for Under bettors.

Worthy Over 1.5 rushing yards (-120) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

I’ll volunteer as tribute. If this is a trap line, I’m jumping in feet first.

  • Xavier Worthy has accumulated Over 1.5 rushing yards nine times on the season
  • He's cleared this line in four of his last five games
  • There have been only four games out of 14 in which the Chiefs have not given Worthy at least one rushing attempt

FanDuel doesn’t offer the Worthy prop, while BetMGM wouldn’t permit the prop to be included in an SGP.

At Caesars the SGP odds came out to +425, but with a poor line on both the Under (42 instead of 42.5) and Mahomes’ passing yards (225.5 instead of 226.5). We opted to play this parlay at DraftKings (+410).

A winning $10 wager on this parlay at DraftKings would lead to a $41 profit as part of your NFL Week 16 predictions.

NFL Saturday expert picks

Texans vs. Chiefs odds

See all of this week's NFL odds and NFL scores.

Texans vs. Chiefs game info

  • When: Saturday, Dec. 21
  • Kickoff: 1 p.m. ET
  • Where: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium (Kansas City, Mo.)
  • How to watch: NBC
  • Weather: 34 degrees, 0% chance of precipitation, wind 6-mph SSE
  • Favorite: Chiefs -3.5 ()

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Written By:
Brenden Schaeffer
Brenden has covered the St. Louis Cardinals as a credentialed baseball writer for KMOV-TV since 2016. His sports writing has appeared in outlets including the Austin American-Statesman and Columbia Daily Tribune. Since 2021, Brenden has co-hosted 'The Big Show' during the afternoon drive for KTGR, the ESPN radio affiliate in Columbia, MO. He has appeared on radio stations around the country, including KMOX, and hosts a daily St. Louis Cardinals podcast. In the sports betting content space, Brenden has covered the NFL, college football, NBA, and college basketball for outlets including SBR since 2019. For his football handicapping, Brenden looks to target NFL player prop markets as well as sharp underdog lines in college football. Brenden looks to reference FanDuel for his sports betting articles because of its consistently competitive odds on parlays. FanDuel's boost offerings are also customer-friendly, and its odds on the NFL Same Game Parlay articles he's written for SBR have historically been consistently competitive compared to other books.