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Texans vs. Chiefs Early Picks, Predictions & Odds for Saturday Week 16

Gabe Henderson

Last Updated: December 17, 2024 12:13 PM EST • 2 min 56 sec read.

Houston Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud attempts a pass as we make our Texans vs. Chiefs early picks and ods.
Houston Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud attempts a pass. Photo by Troy Taormina-Imagn Images.

The Houston Texans and Kansas City Chiefs headline the NFL Week 16 slate on Saturday when the two AFC contenders clash at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, Mo.

Our Texans vs. Chiefs early picks and odds help find the top values at the best NFL betting sites. Our early pick for the intraconference contest is a part of our NFL Week 16 predictions.

The biggest question mark ahead of this marquee matchup is the status of Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes. Kansas City lists him as week-to-week, but the odds at our best sports betting sites hint at his game status.

My early Texans vs. Chiefs prediction: Spread

NFL picks made Tuesday; odds subject to change. Our NEW NFL player prop odds tool can help you find the best odds on any market across legal sportsbooks in your area!

Prediction: Under 40

Best odds: | Implied probability: 52.38%

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Houston and Kansas City are two of the most hit or miss teams against the spread. They've compiled a 12-14-2 combined ATS record, and with Mahomes still listed as questionable, we don't feel comfortable playing the spread either way.

As such, we're turning to the total for our early pick, where we'll play the Under.

  • The Texans are one of the NFL's most profitable total teams, with 10 of their 14 games cashing the Under
  • The Chiefs have gone Under at a 57.1% clip this season
  • Both teams boast top-5 total defenses and top-10 scoring defenses

Caesars has the best odds on the total among our NFL prop betting sites. The Under 40 game line is listed at standard juice (-110), and it carries an implied probability of 52.38%. This is a value play considering the teams have gone Under at a 64.29% clip in the current campaign.

Don't miss our guide for how to bet on NFL or this week's best sportsbook promos.

Texans vs. Chiefs live odds

See the NFL odds from our best NFL betting sites for every Week 16 game.

Moneyline

  • Texans best odds: | Implied probability: 55.56%
  • Chiefs best odds: +110 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 47.62%

Houston opens up as a slight favorite on the road. The odds indicate a fairly even matchup between two of the AFC's top contenders. BetMGM has the shortest odds on the Texans (-125), whereas DraftKings offers the Chiefs moneyline at plus-money (+110).

Spread

  • Texans best odds: -2 (-105) via Caesars
  • Chiefs best odds:

Even with Mahomes listed as questionable for this contest, bettors jumped all over the opening spread of Texans -3.5. The public is showing hesitancy to back a team that is 6-6-2 against the spread this year. The line has been bet down to -2 or -2.5 at our best sportsbooks.

Over/Under

  • Over best odds: 40 (-110) via Caesars
  • Under best odds: 40 (-110) via Caesars

This is the one market we recommend waiting to play. Mahomes' status will undoubtedly impact the total, so unless you feel strongly about the O/U of 40 points, there will likely be better prices as kickoff inches closer. The best market for the total options is currently at Caesars, which offers both at normal vig.

How to watch Visitor vs. Host

  • When: Saturday, Dec. 21
  • Kickoff: 1 p.m. ET
  • Where: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium (Kansas City, Mo.)
  • How to watch: NBC/Peacock
  • Weather: 39 degrees, 2% chance of precipitation, wind 6 mph ESE
  • Favorite: Texans -2 (-110 via BetMGM)

NFL betting odds pages

Here are our best NFL betting sites:

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Written By:
Gabe Henderson
Gabe Henderson is a sports betting writer from Houston, Texas. He graduated from Louisiana State University in 2022 with a bachelor's degree in Mass Communication. Gabe developed an interest in sports betting while in college due to its legalization in Louisiana. He turned his passion into a career shortly after, joining The Advocate/NOLA.com as a Sports Betting Content Coordinator, where he spent two years. Gabe wore many hats before graduating as he led FanSided's coverage of Chelsea FC as a Site Expert with "The Pride of London." He was also the Editor-in-Chief of the LSU Gumbo Yearbook for two years. Gabe became a part of the 520ccc.com team in late 2024. He brings with him an extensive knowledge of many sports, including — but not limited to — NFL, NCAA, MLB, NBA, soccer, and UFC. Sports betting has not yet been legalized in Gabe's home state of Texas, so he frequently takes trips to Louisiana when he has the itch to place futures. Outside of work, Gabe considers himself an old head as he used an AOL email account until 2022 and still collects vinyl records.