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Texans vs. Titans Odds, Picks, Predictions Week 16: Will Henry Run Wild?

Brenden Schaeffer

Last Updated: December 24, 2022 4:37 AM EST • 2 min 40 sec read.

With quarterback Ryan Tannehill out for Tennessee, the Titans will lean on running back Derrick Henry to outmuscle the Houston Texans. Can King Henry lead Tennessee to another win over Houston? Read on for our top Texans-Titans NFL pick. 

The Titans (1-12-1) are a virtual lock for the NFL's worst record and the No. 1 draft pick that comes with it, but they’ve been playing inspired football the last couple of weeks against playoff-bound teams.

Tennessee (7-7) is suddenly locked into a battle for the AFC South as it looks to stave off the hard-charging Jacksonville Jaguars. 

Here is our best Texans-Titans Week 16 NFL pick (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook and Caesars Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

  Check out our NFL Best Bets and all of our top NFL Picks for Week 16.  

Texans vs. Titans Game Info

  • Date: Saturday, Dec. 24, 2022, 1 p.m. ET
  • TV: CBS
  • Location: Nissan Stadium, Nashville, TN
  • Weather: 13 degrees, 0% precipitation, 13-mph winds

Texans vs. Titans Odds

Texans vs. Titans Odds Analysis

The Titans opened as 9-point favorites before it became clear QB Ryan Tannehill would miss the game due to an ankle injury. The line now sits at Titans -3.5 with Tennessee getting 75% of the cash and 79% of the tickets.

The quarterback change affected the total, sending it from its opening mark of 41.5 down to 35.5 across the board. The Under is still the popular side, however, drawing 62% of the cash and 57% of the tickets.

Check out our best sports-betting sites for Tennessee.

Texans vs. Titans Pick

Titans -3.5 ⭐⭐⭐⭐

With the inexperienced Wiliis set to start in Tannehill's place, the Titans hope for another patented ‘Derrick Henry Game’ on Christmas Eve. Henry ran all over the Texans in Houston on Oct. 30, racking up 219 yards and two touchdowns on 32 carries in a 17-10 Titans win. Willis also started for Tennessee, showing extremely limited ability. 

Now that the weather is as frightful as the general belief in Willis’ NFL readiness, it would be stunning if the game plan is anything other than feeding Henry 30 times on Saturday. Houston has a 24th-ranked run defense DVOA and allows more rushing yards per game (167.5) than any NFL team this season.

Tennessee’s second-ranked run D doesn’t even allow half that per game total on the ground. The Titans should shut down a Texans’ run game that features a parade of backups trying to cobble it together in RB Dameon Pierce’s absence. Tennessee has an exploitable passing defense, but Houston’s Davis Mills-Jeff Driskel QB tandem doesn’t exactly strike fear into the opposition's hearts. 

Houston only hung close in recent contests by forcing five combined turnovers against the Dallas Cowboys and Kansas City Chiefs. As long as the Titans feed Henry and take care of the ball, there’s little reason to believe they won’t win Saturday at home by a similar margin to the 7-point road victory they secured when Willis started in Houston earlier this season.

Texans vs. Titans Best Odds

BetMGM (+100)

DraftKingsFanDuelBetMGMCaesarsPointsBet
-3.5-3.5-3.5-3-3.5
-105-102+100-120+100

There are two schools of thought with this matchup: Whether to max out on the optimal game line or the optimal odds. Caesars offers the best line available at -3, but you have to pay extra juice to -120 to play it.

FanDuel, BetMGM, DraftKings and PointsBet list the line at Titans -3.5, a significant shift in the line that provides a benefit on the odds front. Both BetMGM and PointsBet list the odds at even money on Titans -3.5; avoid FanDuel and DraftKings, whose -102 and -105 odds, respectively, provide slightly less value than the competitors.

Check out our top Over/Under picks and odds and lines for Week 16.

Texans-Titans pick made 12/22/2022 at 5:13 p.m. ET.

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Written By:
Brenden Schaeffer
Brenden has covered the St. Louis Cardinals as a credentialed baseball writer for KMOV-TV since 2016. His sports writing has appeared in outlets including the Austin American-Statesman and Columbia Daily Tribune. Since 2021, Brenden has co-hosted 'The Big Show' during the afternoon drive for KTGR, the ESPN radio affiliate in Columbia, MO. He has appeared on radio stations around the country, including KMOX, and hosts a daily St. Louis Cardinals podcast. In the sports betting content space, Brenden has covered the NFL, college football, NBA, and college basketball for outlets including SBR since 2019. For his football handicapping, Brenden looks to target NFL player prop markets as well as sharp underdog lines in college football. Brenden looks to reference FanDuel for his sports betting articles because of its consistently competitive odds on parlays. FanDuel's boost offerings are also customer-friendly, and its odds on the NFL Same Game Parlay articles he's written for SBR have historically been consistently competitive compared to other books.