NFL Teaser Picks Week 12: High-Scoring Dolphins Too Much for Texans
Last Updated: November 22, 2022 9:27 AM EST • 2 min 44 sec read.
The Miami Dolphins and Pittsburgh Steelers headline our NFL Week 12 teasers picks.
A teaser bet offers bettors the ability to move multiple spreads and/or totals above or below key numbers and ranges for an increased vig. Check out our teaser betting primer for additional information on teaser bets and strategies.
Check out our NFL Week 12 odds and lines analysis and our against-the-spread power rankings.
Here are our NFL teaser picks for Week 12 (odds via FanDuel Sportsbook).
Week 12 NFL ATS Teaser Picks
Favorite to tease down: Dolphins (-12.5)
A six-point teaser moves this spread down through the key number of 7, and the Houston Texans have lost five straight to drop to 1-8-1 for the season. The Texans have a minus-58 point differential during the noted five-game slide, too.
With the Miami Dolphins coming off their bye week, I don’t see Houston being able to hang with the high-scoring Miami Dolphins at Hard Rock Stadium.
There’s a huge gap in talent and performance between these two teams. Houston ranks last in overall DVOA per Football Outsiders and overall grade per Pro Football Focus, whereas Miami respectively ranks seventh and fifth.
I also expect this spread to climb over the week, so backing the Dolphins now should add closing-line value.
Underdog to tease up: Steelers (+2.5)
This spread can be teased up through multiple key numbers to +8.5, and I expect Pittsburgh Steelers head coach Mike Tomlin to have his team prepared to make this Monday Night Football game interesting.
On the flip side, I anticipate the Indianapolis Colts to have a letdown showing after covering the spread and exceeding expectations in consecutive weeks with new head coach Jeff Saturday at the helm.
Additionally, I value the extra points in this teaser leg because the total is just 39.5. This projects to be a close, low-scoring game, and I expect the Pittsburgh pass rush and rush defense to hold the Colts offense in check.
The Steelers posted their two highest pass rush grades this season the past two weeks, per PFF, and their rush defense DVOA also ranked fourth highest.
Week 12 NFL O/U Teaser Picks
Total to tease down: Packers-Eagles (46.5)
The Philadelphia Eagles have faced the easiest schedule of opposing offenses by DVOA, and the Green Bay Packers have scored 48 points across the past two weeks to help the total go Over the number in consecutive games.
I’m encouraged by Green Bay quarterback Aaron Rodgers pacing the NFL in air yards (10.4) the past two weeks, too.
I expect the Packers to put points on the board again this week against the Eagles. Philadelphia is also ripe for a rebound offensive showing after scoring just 17 points against the Indianapolis Colts on the road last week.
There’s nothing scary about the Green Bay defense, either. The Packers rank 20th in both defensive DVOA and EPA allowed per play, and they’re also 1-4 on the road this season.
Additionally, Green Bay lost starting cornerback Eric Stokes (ankle/knee) and linebacker Rashan Gary (knee) for the season ahead of last week's game, and linebackers Quay Walker (shoulder) and De'Vondre Campbell (knee) are also both nursing injuries leading into Week 12.
Teasing this total down into the key range of 40-41 provides enough wiggle room to confidently bet this leg.
Total to tease up: Falcons-Commanders (41.5)
The Washington Commanders have won five of their past six games while posting the ninth-highest defensive DVOA, and third-ranked rush defense DVOA. I don't think the betting markets or community has fully adjusted to the improvements they've shown during their recent surge.
With the Atlanta Falcons attempting the second-fewest passes per game (22.8), and leaning on the rushing attack, I don’t expect them to have success on offense Sunday. Additionally, Atlanta is just 1-4 on the road this season, and the Falcons have only scored 47 points across their past three road contests.
The number has gone Under the total in three of Washington’s past four games, too.
This total can be teased above the key range of 43-44. Washington and Atlanta respectively rank third and fifth slowest in seconds per play in neutral situations. I also anticipate this game playing out similarly to the Week 11 matchup between the Commanders and Texans. Washington won 23-10, and the Under cashed.
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Neil Parker
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