NFL Survivor Picks Week 11: Ride With Ravens Off Bye Week
Last Updated: November 16, 2022 7:24 AM EST • 2 min 47 sec read.
The Baltimore Ravens are the biggest favorite on the schedule and top our NFL Week 11 survivor picks.
It was another tough go for favorites in the NFL last week. The Washington Commanders, Green Bay Packers, Indianapolis Colts, and Minnesota Vikings pulled off crippling upsets for survivor poolies. Overall, favorites went just 6-8 straight-up.
The Ravens are the largest favorite on the docket in Week 11, and they also top our rankings this week with a plus-matchup against the Carolina Panthers.
Here’s a look at the odds list and a breakdown of the top teams to target and fade in survivor pools this week.
Week 11 Survivor Pick Rankings
Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook as of Wednesday, Nov. 16, at 8 a.m. ET.
Team | Spread | Moneyline | Win Probability |
Ravens | -12.5 | -800 | 88.9% |
49ers | -8 | -375 | 78.9% |
Eagles | -6.5 | -295 | 74.7% |
Bills | -8.5 | -375 | 78.9% |
Chiefs | -6.5 | -295 | 74.7% |
Bengals | -4.5 | -215 | 68.3% |
Saints | -4.5 | -215 | 68.3% |
Commanders | -3.5 | -164 | 62.1% |
Broncos | -2.5 | -148 | 59.7% |
Patriots | -3.5 | -168 | 62.7% |
Packers | -3 | -168 | 62.7% |
Giants | -3 | -156 | 60.9% |
Bears | +3 | +144 | 41.0% |
Cowboys | -1.5 | -124 | 55.4% |
Vikings | +1.5 | +106 | 48.5% |
Falcons | -3 | -172 | 63.2% |
Lions | +3 | +132 | 43.1% |
Titans | +3 | +142 | 41.3% |
Jets | +3.5 | +142 | 41.3% |
Raiders | +2.5 | +126 | 44.2% |
Texans | +3.5 | +138 | 42.0% |
Rams | +4.5 | +180 | 35.7% |
Steelers | +4.5 | +180 | 35.7% |
Chargers | +6.5 | +240 | 29.4% |
Browns | +8.5 | +300 | 25.0% |
Colts | +6.5 | +240 | 29.4% |
Cardinals | +8 | +310 | 24.4% |
Panthers | +12.5 | +560 | 15.2% |
Top NFL Survivor Picks
5. Bengals (at Steelers)
The Cincinnati Bengals are coming off their bye week, which followed a dominant Week 9 win over the Carolina Panthers. With the Pittsburgh Steelers scoring the second-fewest points per game in the league, I expect the Cincy offense to put up too many points for Pittsburgh to keep pace.
If this wasn’t a divisional road game for the Bengals, they’d be considerably higher on these rankings. Still, Cincinnati enters ranked 10th in DVOA, according to Football Outsiders, and grading 13th overall, per PFF. The Steelers rank 23rd in both, so there is a notable performance and talent gap between these two teams.
4. Chiefs (at Chargers)
This is another road game against a divisional opponent, but the Los Angeles Chargers don’t have a measurable home-field advantage at SoFi Stadium. If the Chargers have top wide receivers Keenan Allen (hamstring) and Mike Williams (ankle) both back in action, I’m less confident in the Kansas City Chiefs.
Still, Kansas City paces the NFL in EPA per play and offensive DVOA, and I have it ranked as a 7.5-point favorite. Plus, at this stage of the survivor season, who better to trust than consensus MVP favorite Patrick Mahomes?
3. Eagles (at Colts)
The look-ahead spread had the Philadelphia Eagles favored by 10 points via DraftKings Sportsbook, so I’m not overreacting to the Week 10 results for Philly or the Indianapolis Colts. The Eagles rank second in DVOA and sport the highest overall grade, per PFF, and the Colts respectively rank 31st and 26th.
Hat tip to Indy for topping the Las Vegas Raiders on the road last week. I just don’t see enough talent on the Colts to pull off a second upset in consecutive weeks, especially against one of the best teams in the NFL.
2. 49ers (vs. Cardinals)
The San Francisco 49ers have an advantage over the Arizona Cardinals on both sides of the ball. Arizona ranks 31st in net yards per play, 28th in offensive DVOA, and 26th in defense grade, per PFF. Add that quarterback Kyler Murray is nursing a hamstring injury, and the Niners are positioned to win their third consecutive game.
I anticipate the San Fran defense making life miserable for the Cards, too. The 49ers have allowed just 30 points across their past two contests, surrendered the fifth-lowest EPA per play for the season, and sport the fifth-highest defense grade, per PFF.
1. Ravens (vs. Panthers)
I place a lot of value in the familiarity the Ravens' defense has with Panthers quarterback Baker Mayfield. He's faced the Ravens eight times over the past four seasons, and Baltimore benefits from the additional rest following its Week 10 bye.
There’s also a huge gap in past competition. The Ravens have faced the third-hardest schedule by DVOA, whereas the Panthers have faced the 10th-easiest. It’s also worth noting Carolina hasn’t won on the road since Week 10 last season.
Others to Consider
- Saints (vs. Rams)
- Commanders (vs. Texans)
Favorite to Fade
Bills (vs. Browns)
The weather forecast is calling for high winds and freezing temperatures during Sunday’s Cleveland Browns-Buffalo Bills game at Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park, NY. There’s also expected to be heavy snowfall leading into – and potentially during – the game.
As a result, this game is a stay-away for me. The Browns rank second in EPA per rush and third in rush DVOA, so if the weather is indeed prohibitive, Cleveland has the personnel to succeed on the ground and give Buffalo a run for its money.
Check out our Week 11 teaser picks.
Others to Consider
- Patriots (vs. Jets)
- Packers (vs. Titans)
- Falcons (vs. Bears)
Where to Bet on the NFL
Neil Parker